Both Teams to Score (BTTS/GG): Finding Real Value
Estimate GG from each side's scoring and conceding record, convert it to a fair price, and compare it with the coupon. A worked fixture, a lookup grid and the point where the market is too short.
Value on GG is not found by spotting fixtures where both teams look likely to score. The market spotted those first and priced them accordingly. It is found by producing your own percentage, turning it into a fair price, and betting only when the coupon pays more than that number.
This guide assumes you know how the market settles — if not, start with what GG and NG mean. Nigerian slips label it GG and NG; international ones call the identical market BTTS, Both Teams to Score. What follows is about the estimate and the price.
In short.
- Build two expected-goal figures from venue splits: home matches for the home side, away matches for the visitors.
- Convert them with (1 − e−h) × (1 − e−a) to get a GG probability.
- On the fixture used throughout, that gives 55.2% and a fair price of 1.81.
- GG books are often heavier than match result books — 7.53% of turnover on one of the two quotes compared here.
- The same read is a pass at 1.72 and a genuine edge at 1.90. The price, not the fixture, decides.
Two numbers that drive the market
Everything reduces to how many goals each side is likely to score in this match. Take home fixtures for the home team and away fixtures for the visitors — a combined season average blends two different teams into one useless figure.
| Input | Home side | Away side |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game at this venue | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per game at this venue | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| Expected goals in this fixture | (1.80 + 1.50) ÷ 2 = 1.65 | (1.20 + 1.10) ÷ 2 = 1.15 |
The averaging is deliberately crude: the home attack meets the away defence, so take the mean of what one produces and what the other allows. Better models weight every opponent faced; this one takes two minutes and is honest about its precision.
From expected goals to a GG percentage
A team fails to score when it produces zero goals. If goals arrive at a steady rate through the match, the chance of exactly zero is e raised to minus the expected number.
- Home: e−1.65 = 0.192, so the home side is kept out 19.2% of the time.
- Away: e−1.15 = 0.317, so the visitors are kept out 31.7% of the time.
Example. Both teams score when neither is kept out: (1 − 0.192) × (1 − 0.317) = 0.808 × 0.683 = 0.552. GG sits at 55.2%, a fair price of 1 ÷ 0.552 = 1.81. NG is the remaining 44.8%, fair at 2.23. Write both down before you open the coupon.
A grid for reading it off
The same arithmetic for common pairs of expected goals. Rows are the home figure, columns the away one.
| Home / away | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 34.8% | 40.0% | 44.2% | 49.1% |
| 1.2 | 38.5% | 44.2% | 48.8% | 54.3% |
| 1.5 | 42.8% | 49.1% | 54.3% | 60.4% |
| 1.8 | 46.0% | 52.8% | 58.3% | 64.8% |
Note how flat the top-left corner is: where one attack is weak, adding goals to the other barely moves GG. Heavy mismatches produce plenty of goals and very few GG winners.
Putting your number against the price
Suppose the coupon shows GG 1.72 and NG 2.00. Implied: 1 ÷ 1.72 = 58.14% and 1 ÷ 2.00 = 50.00%, totalling 108.14%. That book costs 1 − (100 ÷ 108.14) = 7.53% of everything staked, appreciably heavier than a typical three-way match result book. The method behind the conversion is in how to read betting odds.
Strip it out and the market's real view of GG is 58.14 ÷ 108.14 = 53.8%. Your 55.2% is 1.4 points above that — well inside your own margin of error. The expected return confirms it: 0.552 × 1.72 − 1 = −5.0%.
| Quote | GG | NG | Book | Cost of turnover | Market's GG | Your edge | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 1.72 | 2.00 | 108.14% | 7.53% | 53.8% | +1.4 pts | −5.0% |
| B | 1.90 | 1.85 | 106.69% | 6.27% | 49.3% | +5.9 pts | +4.9% |
Example. Same fixture, same 55.2% read, two different prices. At quote B, twenty ₦500 slips put ₦10,000 through the account for an expected return of about ₦490. That return arrives in a lumpy sequence over months, never in twenty tidy instalments.
When the price is too short to touch
GG shortens on the fixtures everybody can name: two open sides, a derby, a promotion race. Popular reads attract one-directional money, and one-directional money gets priced against.
Three signals that the market is ahead of you:
- The quote is shorter than the fair price you calculated. On quote A, 1.72 against 1.81 leaves nothing.
- The two-way book runs above about 107%, so a large slice of any edge is being charged back to you.
- Your estimate rests on fewer than eight matches per venue split, making the gap noise rather than information.
Passing is a decision, not a wasted afternoon. The same fixture is often priced more sensibly on a goal line, where you back the same view of the attacks without needing both to deliver.
Combining GG with a result
"GG and home win" is a separate market carrying its own charge. Run the same two expected-goal figures across every plausible scoreline and the home side wins 49.0% of the time, but wins with both teams scoring only 23.4% of the time — a fair price of 4.27.
That is a long way from 1.81 on plain GG, and the gap is the point. A joint probability is always smaller than either part, so a combination quoted at 3.50 here is short, not generous, however tempting the return looks.
How much history to feed it
- Eight home matches for the home side and eight away matches for the visitors, minimum. Twelve is comfortable.
- Never mix venues. A team scoring 1.8 at home and 0.9 away is not a 1.35 team in either fixture.
- Discard a match only when you can name the reason — a tenth-minute red card, an abandoned tie.
- With a thin sample, average your figure with the league's own goals-per-game norm before using it.
- Refresh weekly. A figure calculated in October describes October.
Important. The formula treats the two attacks as independent, which is not quite true: a red card, or a side chasing a two-goal deficit, links them. Read 55.2% as a starting position with a couple of points of slack in either direction, not as a measurement.
What breaks a sound estimate
- Calculating after looking at the price. Anchoring is quiet and total: write your number first.
- Using season-long goals per game, which flatters weak away attacks and inflates GG on mismatches.
- Backing GG because it "always lands" for a team. How often it landed is history; the price is now.
- Stacking four GG legs into an accumulator, where the 7.53% charge applies to each — see singles, accumulators and system bets.
- Ignoring team news. A rested first-choice front three moves the home figure by more than any formula will.
FAQ
How much data do I need before this is useful?
Eight matches per venue split as a floor, twelve for comfort. On a five-match sample one 4-0 shifts the average by 0.4 goals, which moves the GG figure several points and can turn a pass into a bet for no real reason. Blend thin samples with the league norm.
Is GG better value than over 2.5?
Neither is inherently better — they answer different questions and are priced separately. Where one attack is much weaker the two diverge sharply, so estimate both from the same pair of figures and back whichever price beats its own fair number by more.
Why is the GG book heavier than the match result book?
Because it draws steady one-directional money and needs less balancing to stay profitable. On quote A above the two prices total 108.14%, taking 7.53% of turnover. That charge alone means you have to be right rather more often than the raw percentages suggest.
Does a red card change the calculation?
Considerably. A side reduced to ten men early loses much of its attacking output, cutting the GG probability sharply, and it breaks the independence the formula assumes. Live markets reprice within minutes, faster than you can redo the arithmetic.
Read next
- What GG and NG mean — settlement rules, own goals and abandoned matches.
- 1X2 betting explained — the same fair-price discipline on the match result market.
GG picks. Fixtures our editors have analysed with both teams scoring in mind sit in the both teams to score predictions feed.
This article is for information only and is not an inducement to gamble. Betting involves the risk of losing money — never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+. If gambling stops being entertainment, read our responsible gambling guide and seek help.
