Double Chance: Insurance or a Low-Odds Trap?
1X, X2 and 12 cover two results out of three for a much shorter price. Work out what that cover is really worth, compare it with draw no bet, and see the strike rate a 1.20 shot demands.
Double chance covers two of the three results at once. 1X wins if the home side wins or draws, X2 if the away side wins or draws, 12 if anybody wins and only the draw beats you. You lose one outcome and, in exchange, you accept a much shorter price.
Whether that trade is insurance or a trap depends on one thing: how the quoted price compares with the one you can derive yourself from the ordinary 1X2 line. This article does that arithmetic on a single La Liga fixture.
In short.
- 1X, X2 and 12 each cover two results out of three, settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
- The price is not invented — it is derived from the three match-result odds, so you can check it.
- On the worked line here the fair 1X is 1.26; a coupon showing 1.20 is charging roughly five points over the odds.
- Across all three double chance selections the mark-up works out at 5.43%, against 4.94% on the plain 1X2 book.
- At 1.20 you need to win 83.3% of the time to stand still, so one loss wipes out five winners.
What each selection covers
| Selection | Wins when | Loses when |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | Home win or draw | Away win |
| X2 | Away win or draw | Home win |
| 12 | Either side wins | Draw |
A 0-0 pays 1X and X2 and kills 12. A 3-0 away win pays X2 and 12 and kills 1X. Extra time is excluded, so a cup tie level after 90 minutes settles every 1X and X2 slip as a winner.
Where the price comes from
Take a La Liga match quoted 1.75 for the home side, 3.80 for the draw and 4.60 for the visitors. Convert each to a percentage, add them up, then divide each by the total to remove the bookmaker's cut.
| Result | Odds | Implied | Cleaned |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 57.14% | 54.3% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 26.32% | 25.0% |
| Away | 4.60 | 21.74% | 20.7% |
| Total | — | 105.20% | 100% |
The book stands at 105.20%, which costs 1 − (100 ÷ 105.20) = 4.94% of turnover. Now add the cleaned figures in pairs and invert them, and you have the double chance prices before anyone takes a cut.
| Selection | Fair probability | Fair odds | Typical coupon price | Return per ₦100 staked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.20 | −₦4.80 |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.27 | −₦4.77 |
| X2 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.05 | −₦6.35 |
The last column is the expected loss per ₦100 at those prices: 0.793 × 1.20 − 1 = −4.8%, and so on. Backing the home side outright at 1.75 gives −4.94%. The cover costs roughly what the plain bet costs.
Building 1X by hand
Example. Split ₦500 between home at 1.75 and the draw at 3.80 so both returns match. Put ₦342.30 on the home side and ₦157.70 on the draw: either way you get back 1.75 × 342.30 = ₦599, an effective price of 1.198. That is the 1.20 on the coupon, to the second decimal. Double chance is not a product; it is two bets sold as one.
Do this once by hand and the argument settles itself. When a coupon quotes 1X well below the figure you can build, build it.
Is the market dearer than 1X2?
Add the implied probabilities of the three double chance selections: 1 ÷ 1.20 = 83.33%, 1 ÷ 1.27 = 78.74%, 1 ÷ 2.05 = 48.78%, giving 210.85%. Each selection covers two of three results, so a perfectly fair book here would total exactly 200%, not 100%.
Divide: 210.85 ÷ 200 = 1.0543, a mark-up of 5.43% against 4.94% on the match result market. Dearer on this fixture, though not by law — some coupons price the cover keenly and load the outsider instead.
The strike rate short cover demands
A price of 1.20 breaks even at 1 ÷ 1.20 = 83.3%. Five wins out of six, indefinitely.
Example. Ten ₦500 slips at 1.20 put ₦5,000 through the account. Eight winners return 8 × ₦600 = ₦4,800: a ₦200 loss from an 80% strike rate. Every single defeat has to be repaid by five subsequent winners, which is why a bad afternoon on double chance takes a fortnight to undo.
Important. Short prices do not lower risk, they change its shape: you lose less often and more expensively. Raising the stake to make 1.20 "worth it" turns a cautious bet into the biggest position on the account — see bankroll management.
Double chance against draw no bet
Draw no bet refunds your stake if the match is level. On the cleaned numbers the home side takes 54.3 ÷ (54.3 + 20.7) = 72.4% of the results that produce a winner, a fair 1.38.
So the choice is 1.26 with the draw paid, or 1.38 with the draw refunded. Prefer 1X when you genuinely rate the draw; prefer draw no bet when the draw is a risk you simply want removed.
When the cover is worth buying
- You rate the underdog's chance of an outright win as very low, so 1X gives up almost nothing real.
- The favourite is short but the draw is live: a defensive away side, a congested week, a rested first team.
- The quoted price is within a few points of your calculated one. Here, 1X at 1.24 is fine and 1.15 is not.
- It is a single. Three legs at 1.20 make 1.73 and carry three lots of mark-up.
Where double chance quietly loses money
- Treating it as licence to bet more per selection. The stake should not move because the price is short.
- Using 1X on a heavy favourite, where the draw was never the danger and the away win still beats you.
- Filling an accumulator with cover bets to reach a headline price — the trap set out in singles, accumulators and system bets.
- Never checking the derived price, and so never noticing a coupon charging 1.15 for something worth 1.26.
FAQ
Does double chance include extra time?
No. Like the match result market, it settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A cup tie level at full time and won on penalties pays both 1X and X2 and loses 12, whoever eventually goes through in the shoot-out.
Is 12 a safe bet because draws are rare?
Draws are not rare. On the line worked through here the cleaned probability of the draw is 25.0%, one match in four, which is why 12 is only fairly priced at 1.33. Anything much shorter is charging you heavily for a risk that turns up regularly.
How do I know if a double chance price is fair?
Convert the three match result odds to percentages, divide each by their total, add the two you need and invert the sum. That is the fair price. A gap of a few points from the coupon is normal; a gap of ten is the bookmaker charging for your caution.
Can I use double chance on an accumulator?
You can, and it is a common way to lose slowly. Four legs at 1.20 combine to 2.07, which looks modest, but each leg carries its own mark-up and all four must land. One cover bet in a single is a decision; four in an accumulator is a habit.
Read next
- 1X2 betting explained — the market every double chance price is built from.
- Football betting markets explained — where this sits among the alternatives.
Cover picks. Fixtures our editors have flagged for 1X, X2 and 12 are gathered in the double chance predictions feed.
This article is for information only and is not an inducement to gamble. Betting involves the risk of losing money — never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+. If gambling stops being entertainment, read our responsible gambling guide and seek help.
