AC Milan vs Venezia: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

For the second match running, Milan are facing a side coached by one of their own former youth products. Fresh from taking on Ignazio Abate's Torino, the Rossoneri now lock horns with Venezia, where Giovanni Stroppa calls the shots. The Italian tactician has previously gone up against his boyhood club twice from the dugout, and both occasions ended in chastening defeats without a single goal scored: 0:2 and 0:4, both with Crotone in the 2020/21 season.

Amorim's Milan: A Confident Start

Ruben Amorim could hardly have asked for a better introduction to Serie A. The Portuguese became the first Milan coach in a decade to win his league debut, and the 2:1 triumph over Torino was as convincing in its execution as it was in its scoreline. From the opening exchanges, the Rossoneri pressed with real aggression, held a bold high line, and kept the ball almost exclusively in their own hands, rarely letting the Granata venture beyond their own half until the second goal arrived on 67 minutes. It was only in the dying stages, once the hosts began to feel the strain of their own relentless tempo, that Torino finally started to threaten and managed to convert one of their chances. The team's fitness levels are still a work in progress — perfectly understandable at this point in the campaign — but in every other department, the Lombardy giants already look worthy of their billing as one of the championship's main contenders.

Even a far-from-ideal starting XI failed to disrupt the flow. Adrien Rabiot and Luka Modrić, both still short of full match sharpness, were introduced only after the break, yet the French midfielder still managed to rack up a goal and an assist. For the visit of Venezia, however, Ardon Jashari and Yunus Musah are tipped to keep their places in the centre of midfield, with last term's key men once again providing fresh legs and quality from the bench. Rafael Leão, meanwhile, has only just resumed training with the main group following his injury, and his future at San Siro remains shrouded in uncertainty. Aston Villa and Galatasaray are both monitoring the situation, though his exit would hardly leave a gaping hole — young Alfajo Cissé, the scorer of Milan's first goal of the season, looks a genuinely exciting prospect in the left inside-forward berth.

Venezia: Too Bold for Their Own Good

Giovanni Stroppa's track record in Italy's top flight is hardly reassuring. He has previously managed Pescara, Crotone, and Monza, and in all three cases he was shown the door before the spring arrived. At Venezia, he runs the risk of following the same well-worn path after the Lagunari slipped up in their opening fixture against a direct relegation rival. The home loss to Lecce (0:2) was anything but a dull affair — the underlying numbers show 2.03 xG for the hosts against 2.72 for the visitors — but the side from the city of canals simply could not take their chances. Like Stroppa's earlier projects, the orange-black-green outfit are far too attack-minded for their own good. At this level, such an open approach rarely brings success to newly promoted sides, and it promises to be even more punishing when they come up against Italy's top clubs.

Venezia outspent every other Serie A newcomer in the transfer market, yet their headline signing was once again in attack: Achor Adams arrived for a club-record €16 million. The choice of defensive leader, however, looks decidedly questionable. Armel Bella-Kotchap, brought in from a Verona side that were relegated last season, has so far failed to live up to his billing. The German is strong enough in physical and aerial duels inside the penalty area, but he is repeatedly caught out by quicker forwards running in behind during fast breaks. Milan, with their pace and movement in the final third, are exactly the kind of opponent who can exploit such an obvious weakness.

Predicted Lineups

Milan (3-4-2-1): Maignan – Gila, De Winter, Pavlović – Chukwueze, Jashari, Musah, Estupiñán – Loftus-Cheek, Cissé – Ramos

Unavailable: P. Terracciano (injury), R. Leão (doubtful), Jiménez, Fofana, Tomori (all out of the squad)

Head coach: Ruben Amorim

Venezia (3-5-2): Stanković – Schingtienne, Bella-Kotchap, Franjić – Aino, Pérez, Busio, Bašić, Correia – Yeboah, Adams

Unavailable: Šverko, Adorante (both injured)

Head coach: Giovanni Stroppa

Prediction and Bet

Venezia look an even more accommodating opponent for the Rossoneri than Torino did. Stroppa's football is perfectly suited to Serie B, but in the top division his ultra-attacking sides tend to come crashing down — and nowhere more dramatically than against the league's heavyweights. In 19 matches against Milan, Inter, Juventus, Napoli, Roma, Lazio, Atalanta, and Fiorentina, the 58-year-old has suffered 17 defeats and managed just two draws.

Amorim's men dominated the opening fixture for long stretches thanks to well-organised positional play and a suffocating press. Against a team that is both significantly weaker in quality and determined to play their own attacking game, Milan's new system should click even more smoothly. The main selection is a straightforward home victory with a handicap of (-1.5) at odds of 2.10.

Goals prediction: That said, the Rossoneri's balance is not yet where it needs to be. In Amorim's setup, the wing-backs push forward almost as auxiliary wingers, and with Strahinja Pavlović left without adequate protection on the left flank, the Milan defence can be caught out. Given Venezia's attacking mindset and the fact that the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet under their Portuguese coach, backing both teams to score at 2.19 also looks like a tempting alternative.