Ajax vs Vojvodina: prediction and odds

The intrigue in this tie is more than a little deflated following Ajax’s commanding 4‑1 victory away from home in the first leg. The only question now is whether the teams will rest key players or treat the return match with genuine seriousness. Ajax can certainly afford to rotate, as even their second string looks a class above Vojvodina’s starting eleven.

Tactical Analysis: Ajax’s Impressive Debut

Judging by the expected goals (xG) figure of 1.63, one might think Ajax were fortunate to put four past the Vojvodina goalkeeper. However, that statistic is deceptive. All four goals were scored from high‑quality positions inside the penalty area, reflecting clinical finishing rather than luck. The official debut of head coach Michel Sanchez was a resounding success, even though his side had not been nearly as efficient in pre‑season. During the summer friendlies, Ajax faced several strong European opponents but managed only one accurate shot on target per game. Against Vojvodina, they found the net four times from 1.63 xG, a conversion rate that highlights the quality of the chances created.

The coaching staff can now easily rotate the squad. However, many of the players who started on the bench in the first leg already featured in Sunday’s friendly against Burnley (2‑1). Juri Bass and Cayó Enrique played the full 90 minutes, making it unlikely they will start again. On the other hand, Marcos Leonardo, Ajax’s most expensive signing of the summer, played only one half in that friendly. The Brazilian scored 48 goals in 82 matches for Al‑Hilal and is now returning to Europe to prove his worth. His inclusion in the starting lineup would provide a dangerous focal point for the attack.

Tactical Analysis: Vojvodina’s Efficiency and Vulnerability

Two years ago, Vojvodina also faced Ajax in European competition, and they fared slightly better at home (1‑3). This time, expectations were cautiously optimistic. Although the Serbian side lost heavily to Ferencváros over two legs (1‑5), they had looked level with the Hungarian champions on home soil. The return leg was decided largely by an early red card. Despite a modest average xG of 1.12 in five official matches this season, Vojvodina have scored 12 goals – a conversion rate that even top clubs would envy. This attacking efficiency, however, is completely undermined by a weak defence and unreliable goalkeeping. The team concedes an average of 3.8 goals per game while allowing only 1.81 xGA (expected goals against). The disparity is stark.

It is no surprise that the club’s summer recruitment focused on the attack. Nardin Mulahusejnović has already made an impact, scoring a brace in a 4‑0 win against Belgrade. Vojvodina also completed a record‑transfer (€2.5 million) to bring back academy product Dejan Zukić. The attacking midfielder has not yet registered a goal or assist, but he has been handed the captain’s armband. Ifet Đakovac, who arrived from Russian side Akron Tolyatti, has not impressed. In the first leg against Ajax, his passing accuracy was only 64%, and he did not engage in a single duel, leading to his substitution at half‑time.

Predicted Lineups

Ajax (4‑3‑3): Pas – Rosa, Baumann, Blind, Wijndal – Głuch, Regeer, Klaassen – Berghuis, Leonardo, Godts Out due to injury: Šutalo, Ihattaren, Bounida, van Axel‑Dongen Head coach: Michel Sanchez

Vojvodina (4‑2‑3‑1): Rosić – Nikolić, Tanjga, Crnomarković, Barros – Petrović, Đakovac – Ranđelović, Zukić, Sukačev – Mulahusejnović Out due to injury: Stanišavljević Head coach: Predrag Kandid

Referee

The match will be officiated by Greek referee Christos Vergittis. He is known for being very strict and meticulous. In the Greek Super League, he averages 5.47 yellow cards and 31.62 fouls per game. The Super League is a notoriously physical competition, but Vergittis applies a similar standard in European competitions: 5 yellow cards and 31.67 fouls per match. However, he has only taken charge of three European fixtures so far, so his international experience is limited.

Prediction and Bet

A comeback is out of the question, but can Vojvodina at least avoid another heavy defeat? We doubt it. Ajax have built a comfortable lead even while not fielding their strongest lineup. The substitutes who come in will be motivated and technically gifted, with something to prove. Consequently, the hosts are unlikely to conserve energy. Moreover, the Eredivisie does not start until August 9, while the Serbian SuperLiga is already in full swing. Predrag Kandid may well rest his key players to prioritise the league. A bet on Ajax to win by at least two goals seems reasonable, but we will take a risk and back Ajax with a handicap of -2.5 at odds of 2.30.

Goals prediction: Nevertheless, Vojvodina are quite capable of scoring a consolation goal. This summer, they have failed to find the net in only one of eight matches. Had it not been for that early red card against Ferencváros, that record might have been perfect. Ajax, meanwhile, have conceded in four of their six matches (including friendlies) this season and may lose concentration, knowing that qualification for the next round is already secure. Both teams to score is available at odds of 1.91.