Alavés vs Valencia: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The two sides arrive at this sixth round of fixtures from opposite ends of the emotional spectrum. The hosts are licking their wounds after suffering their first defeat of the season, while the visitors are rooted to the bottom of the table with just a single point to their name. To make matters worse for Valencia, their travels to Vitoria have historically been a nightmare: they have failed to win any of their last seven La Liga visits to Mendizorroza.

Alaves: A Fortress at Home

The Basque side has been a revelation in the early stages of this campaign, with their home form being particularly eye-catching. At Mendizorroza, they have been flawless, winning all three of their matches, netting nine goals in the process, and keeping two clean sheets. Their away form tells a different story, however, with just one point collected from two trips. The first blemish on their record came in the previous round, a 1-2 loss to Racing in Santander. In that game, Alaves took the lead but allowed their opponents to turn the match on its head after the interval. It is becoming increasingly clear that Kike Sanchez Flores's men are heavily reliant on the energy of their home crowd to get results.

The attacking spearhead has been Lucas Boye, who has already found the back of the net four times, including a memorable hat-trick against Osasuna. Yet, there is a growing concern at the back. After conceding just one goal in their first three matches, the team has shipped four in their last two. Following the setback in Santander, defender Jonny Otto publicly stressed the need for the team to rediscover their defensive solidity.

The hosts do have some selection headaches. Mikel Rodriguez is sidelined with a long-term knee injury, and Aitor Manas was taken to the hospital on a stretcher after a heavy blow to the head in the final moments of the Racing game, with a concussion suspected. On a brighter note, Toni Martinez, who scored 14 league goals last season, has returned to the fold. The core of the squad remains intact, meaning Sanchez Flores does not have to completely overhaul his starting eleven.

Valencia: A Club in Turmoil

The "Bats" are enduring a miserable start to the season. Following a 0-1 loss to Sevilla, they remain winless with just a single point from five games. The primary issue is their toothless attack, having scored only one goal all season and drawing blanks in four of their five matches. Even after the heavy 0-5 defeat at the hands of Barcelona, there was no visible improvement in their attacking output, as they once again failed to convert their limited chances in Seville.

This dire run of form has prompted significant changes at the boardroom level. The club has parted ways with head coach Carlos Corberan, and CEO Ron Gurley has also left his post. Braulio Vazquez has been appointed as the new sporting director and is already on the hunt for a permanent manager. For now, reserve team coach Oscar Sanchez will take charge of the first team for the trip to Vitoria. This match, therefore, marks the beginning of a new era for the club.

Adding to their woes is a lengthy injury list, which has severely depleted their central defensive options. In the match against Sevilla, Cesar Tarrega was forced off after just 24 minutes, joining Diakhaby and Copete on the sidelines. Corberan had to turn to young Iker Cordoba, even though the fit-again De Haas was only deemed ready for the bench, highlighting his lack of match sharpness. With losses across all areas of the pitch, Valencia head into this fixture winless, goalless in recent games, and with a severely restricted squad to choose from.

Predicted Lineups

Alaves (5-2-1-2): Sivera – Perez, Tenaglia, Koski, Otto, Rebbach – Blanco, Alena – Ibanez – Boye, Diaz

Unavailable: Garces (suspension), M. Rodriguez, Manas (both injured)

Head Coach: Kike Sanchez Flores

Valencia (5-4-1): Dimitrievski – Maffeo, A. Martinez, Pepelu, de Haas, Vazquez – Otorbi, Ugrinic, Dieng, Guerra – Djenjouma

Unavailable: Sadik, Tarrega, D. Lopez, Canos, Foulquier, Copete, Diakhaby (all injured), G. Rodriguez, Rioja (both doubtful)

Head Coach: Oscar Sanchez (interim)

Prediction and Bet

The main prediction leans towards the home side. Alaves have been particularly dominant on their own turf, winning all three of their league games at Mendizorroza, while Valencia have lost both of their away matches. History also favors the hosts, who have triumphed in three of the last four head-to-head encounters at this venue. The visitors' extensive injury list further complicates their task, leaving them with limited options. Considering the contrasting form and the current state of the "Bats," the preference is for the home team, with a bet on an Alaves victory at odds of 1.93.

As for the goals market, Valencia's attacking struggles are well documented, with just a single goal scored in five rounds. Alaves, conversely, have been solid defensively at home, keeping clean sheets in two of their three matches. This trend is supported by recent head-to-head meetings, as the last three encounters at Mendizorroza have not seen both teams score. Therefore, the recommendation is to back "both teams to score – no" at odds of 1.80.