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Alavés vs Villarreal: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

⚽ Spain LaLiga · Spain · 28 August 2026
Alavés logoAlavés
1:0
1st half: 1:0
28.08.2026 20:30
Villarreal logoVillarreal

Match events

Lucas Boyé1:0⚽
31′
🟨
45′
Abde Rebbach🟨
48′
86′
🟨Nicolas Pepe
Mariano Díaz🟨
89′
Antonio Sivera🟨
90′
90′
🟨Renato Veiga

Match statistics: Alavés vs Villarreal

AlavésVillarreal
0.74xG (expected goals)1.73
24Ball possession, %76
9Shots19
2Shots on target6
5Corners9
15Fouls8
5Offsides4
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
72Attacks143
31Dangerous attacks89

💡 Match preview Alavés vs Villarreal

By Kayode Akintola — Football expert covering K League, Kakkonen, Liga I, Leon Second League

Alavés and Villarreal head into the third round of La Liga as two of the few remaining unbeaten sides, yet both have already dropped points. The Basques followed up their emphatic 3-0 win over Getafe with a frustrating 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano, despite creating a clear advantage in chances. Meanwhile, the visitors have started the campaign with two draws. Historically, Vitoria has been a particularly tricky destination for Villarreal, who have failed to win in their last five trips there. Can they finally break that streak this time around?

Tactical Analysis of Each Team

Alavés: Unbeaten Run Continues

Alavés have yet to taste defeat since the start of pre-season. Across four summer friendlies, the team recorded three victories (one of which came via penalties) and conceded only two goals. That strong form has carried over into the league. First, they dismantled Getafe 3-0, though context is key: the opposition played the entire second half with ten men, and it was during that period that Alavés netted all three goals. A more telling test came against Rayo Vallecano, ending in a 1-1 draw. The home side generated chances worth 2.00 xG compared to Rayo’s 0.43 and could easily have taken all three points, but poor finishing let them down.

Under Kike Sánchez Flores, the team looks well-balanced. They allow opponents very little while consistently carving out their own opportunities. The standout performer has been Mariano Díaz. The forward has played just 61 minutes across two matchdays but already has two goals and two assists to his name: he scored and set up two goals against Getafe, then came off the bench to equalise against Rayo. Remarkably, Mariano has scored in back-to-back league games for the first time in eight years. His form gives Alavés an extra dimension in attack, and the coach now has a genuine impact substitute on the bench. In the last match, it was precisely the players introduced from the sidelines who helped the Basques claw back a point and create several more clear-cut chances.

Villarreal: Stuttering Start

Villarreal enjoyed a solid pre-season, losing just two of seven fixtures. They looked particularly sharp in their final friendly, beating Galatasaray 2-1. Yet the league campaign has produced only two points from two well-fought encounters, both ending 2-2. In Santander, they trailed 2-0 but made the most of their limited opportunities, scoring twice from just 0.66 xG. The match against Atlético Madrid left a different aftertaste. After Le Normand’s 76th-minute red card, Villarreal had a man advantage and took the lead, only to concede an equaliser in the 85th minute. Despite creating 3.60 xG to Atlético’s 0.71—though that figure was inflated by two penalties—the result was another draw. It has been a paradoxical start: one match where they maximised their chances, followed by another where they created far more but still shared the spoils.

Under Iñigo Pérez, Villarreal are aiming to press more aggressively off the ball and transition quickly into attack. After the first round, the coach demanded greater intensity, and he was satisfied with the team’s execution of the game plan against Atlético. One persistent weakness has been depth in central midfield. Pérez has relied heavily on Gueye and Comesaña as his only experienced options at a high level. That makes the €15 million signing of Nathan Saliba from Anderlecht a logical move—the Canadian should add much-needed competition in that area. In Vitoria, clinical finishing will be crucial. Alavés have conceded very few goals across six matches this season (including pre-season), so any wastefulness of the kind Villarreal showed against Atlético could prove even more costly here.

Predicted Lineups

Alavés (5-2-1-2)

  • Sivera
  • Pérez, Tenaglia, Valentini, Otto, Rebbach
  • Ibáñez, Blanco
  • Rodríguez
  • Boyé, Martínez

Unavailable: Garcés (suspension)

Head Coach: Kike Sánchez Flores

Villarreal (4-4-2)

  • Luis Júnior
  • Mouriño, Foyth, Veiga, Romero
  • Pepe, Comesaña, Gueye, Moleiro
  • Pérez, Mikautadze

Unavailable: None

Head Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Referee

(The original source did not provide any information about the referee for this match.)

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Alavés to avoid defeat

The Basques approach this fixture in fine form, having not lost either in pre-season or in the league so far. Another advantage is rest: Alavés have had three extra days to recover compared to Iñigo Pérez’s side, who are playing their third consecutive away game. The Mendizorrotza factor is especially important: the hosts are unbeaten in their last five home meetings with Villarreal, winning three and drawing two. The visitors, meanwhile, have yet to win in the new championship and have conceded exactly two goals in both rounds. Given the hosts’ current form and Villarreal’s historically difficult trips to Vitoria, Alavés look well placed to claim a result. Our main prediction is “Alavés to avoid defeat” at odds of 1.66.

Goal Prediction: Both teams to score

There are solid reasons to expect a high-scoring affair with goals at both ends. Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings at the Mendizorrotza have seen both sides find the net. The hosts now have several attacking options: Mariano has been the season’s first standout substitute, while the recovered Lucas Boyé—who scored 11 La Liga goals last season—has returned to the starting eleven after an injury. Villarreal have scored two goals in each of their two matches so far, but have also failed to keep a clean sheet. With the visitors’ attacking firepower and the Basques’ plentiful choices up front, betting on “Both teams to score – Yes” at 1.70 makes sense.

Kayode Akintola
Kayode Akintola
Football expert covering K League, Kakkonen, Liga I, Leon Second League

Kayode has spent over a decade closely monitoring the K League 1 and 2, Kakkonen, Liga I, and Leon Second League. His analysis prioritizes current form, squad rotations, and statistical indicators such as shots on target and defensive organization. He also considers coaching decisions and fixture congestion to build well-rounded forecasts, focusing on data-driven insights rather than speculation.

All articles by this author →

The editorial prediction is provided for informational purposes only and should not be treated as a direct call to action. Every reader should do their own analysis before deciding on a bet.

Probable lineups: Alavés vs Villarreal

Alavés logoAlavés5-2-1-2
Sivera
RebbachOttoKoskiTenagliaPerez
BlancoIbanez
Rodriguez
RodriguezBoye
Out of squad:Garces
Villarreal logoVillarreal4-4-2
Luis Junior
RomeroVeigaFoythMourinho
MoleiroGueyeComesañaPepe
MikautadzePerez

Match odds Alavés vs Villarreal

Result (1X2)

X3.5513.1522.31

Double chance

1X1.66X21.4121.33

Both teams to score

No2.12Yes1.64

Over

11.0121.3732.3544.651.51.232.51.833.52.884.55.3

Under

18.922.8931.5441.131.53.642.523.51.354.51.09

Handicap 1

02.2411.2721.02-15.351.51.172.51.01-1.56.15

Handicap 2

01.6511.11-13.34-27.81.51.07-1.54.15-2.58.7

Correct score

0:012.750:18.20:211.250:3221:09.91:16.051:28.41:3171:4412:016.252:110.252:212.252:3253:0353:1243:229

Predictions for Alavés vs Villarreal

SF Segun Fashola Over 2.5odds 1.83 Lost

Looking at this LaLiga matchup between Alavés and Villarreal, the over 2.5 goals bet at 1.83 stands out. Alavés showed solid form in their opening match, but their recent failure to break down Rayo suggests finishing has been an issue. That said, Villarreal's style typically forces open, end-to-end contests, and I expect that trend to continue here.

Alavés will likely create enough chances to push the total past the threshold, especially against a Villarreal side that rarely keeps things tight at the back. The visitors' attacking quality gives them a good chance to contribute to the scoreline as well. For me, this game has all the ingredients to hit three or more goals.

UA Uche Abdullahi Correct score 1:1odds 6.10 Lost
VA Victor Adeyemi Double chance: 1Xodds 1.69 Won

Villarreal are still struggling to find their rhythm, and Alavés have every chance to push them hard. I’m backing the double chance on the home side or a draw at 1.69 — that’s the value in this spot.

KA Kayode Anyanwu Result: 2odds 2.26 Lost

Villarreal have gone far too long without a win at Alavés's home ground. That streak is finally ending here, with the visitors primed to correct the record and take all three points.

W wale.prophet2014 Yellow cards: Over 5odds 2.50 Void

Let’s focus on Villarreal’s visit to Alavés. The hosts average over 2.5 yellow cards per match, so we’re already in foul-friendly territory. I’m backing the total cautions to surpass five at 2.50 — that line looks short for a matchup featuring such an aggressive side.

T tunde_odds2023 Result: 2odds 2.26 Lost

Villarreal’s run of draws ends here. I’m backing them to take all three points at Alavés, and the 2.26 price makes that a solid bet.

MI Musa Ibe Double chance: 1Xodds 1.69 Won

Alavés host Villarreal in La Liga, and this matchup has more going on than the odds suggest. I'm backing the home side to avoid defeat with the double chance 1X at 1.69 — they have what it takes to get at least a point here.

UI Usman Ibe Double chance: 1Xodds 1.69 Won

Alavés have come flying out of the blocks this LaLiga season, and that energy should be enough to earn something from Villarreal's visit. I'll take the double chance on the hosts or a draw at 1.69 — it's the safer way to side with their bright start.

SF Samuel Fashola Under 2odds 2.94 Won

This LaLiga meeting between Alavés and Villarreal looks like a low-scoring affair. I'm backing under 2 goals at 2.94, confident the total stays below that line.

IA Ibrahim A. Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.63 Lost

Alavés and Villarreal should both find the net here. Villarreal’s defense hasn’t been convincing lately, and I expect them to concede, but their attack is more than capable of scoring at the other end. That makes backing both teams to score the smart play.

KO Kayode Obi Result: Xodds 3.56 Lost
CN Collins Nwosu Under 2.5odds 2.01 Pending

Alavés against Villarreal in LaLiga — I’m backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.01. This call comes purely from gut feeling and intuition. No deep analysis, just a strong sense that the total stays low.

TA Tunde Adekunle Over 2.5odds 1.82 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal are set to meet in LaLiga, and this one has the makings of a lively, goal-filled contest. I’m backing the over 2.5 goals line at 1.82 — the attacking intent on both sides should push the total past that mark.

AS Anthony Shehu Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.63 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal meeting in LaLiga — I’m backing both teams to find the net here. The home side, Alavés, tend to perform well in front of their own fans, and that attacking intent should make for an open game. With the odds at 1.63, this feels like a solid bet that both sides will get on the scoresheet.

PN Peter Nwachukwu Result: Xodds 3.56 Lost
KA Kabiru Amadi Result: Xodds 3.56 Pending
VT Victor T. Team 1 over 1odds 1.70 Void

Villarreal’s defense is already in trouble — four goals conceded in two league games — and the club is playing its third consecutive away fixture, which is physically demanding this early in the season. At the same time, Alavés have opened confidently and scored in both of their matches so far, and the 1-1 draw at Vitoria-Gasteiz last season shows they know how to deal with this opponent.

With the home crowd behind them at Mendizorroza, their proven habit of scoring against Villarreal at home, and the visitors’ defensive struggles, I’m taking Alavés over 1 at 1.70.

JS John Sani Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.63 Pending

In the Alavés vs Villarreal match, I'm expecting a draw.

JA John Akintola Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.63 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal meet in LaLiga, and I’m backing both teams to find the net. The odds sit at 1.63, and I see enough attacking quality on both sides to make this bet a strong play.

YA Yusuf Adebayo Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.70 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal have both started the season without a loss, so I'm backing goals in the first half. That clean run suggests attacking intent from the start, and with the odds at 2.70, over 1.5 goals in the opening 45 minutes looks like the right call.

KT Kayode Tanko Under 2.5odds 2.01 Pending

This clash between Alavés and Villarreal shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. I’m taking the under 2.5 goals.

ES Emeka Shehu Result: 2odds 2.29 Pending

Villarreal have the slight edge in quality here. I see them grinding out a tough away win, so the bet is on the visitors to take the three points.

EE Emeka Emenike Handicap 1 (0)odds 2.26 Won

Alavés have started the season far more impressively than their four-point tally suggests. In the first two rounds, they generated 1.73 xG while limiting Getafe to 0.34, then followed with 1.63 against Rayo’s 0.57. This isn’t just about avoiding defeat — the team consistently restricts opponents’ chances and creates enough to avoid relying on a lucky moment.

The numbers back that up: Alavés average 13.6 shots and 5.2 on target per game, while conceding just 9.0 shots and 2.4 on target. Villarreal, by contrast, take 11.2 shots but allow 14.6, and put 5.4 on target while conceding 4.6. That’s a telling matchup — the visitors have more individual quality, but they haven’t shown they can consistently overwhelm opponents with attacking volume. Alavés are without Garces, but the usual structure with Boyé and Toni Martínez up front is expected, and the in-form Mariano is a strong option off the bench. Villarreal have no significant absentees and should field a familiar lineup with Pepe, Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez, and Mikautadze. I’m backing Alavés with a handicap of zero.

SF Sani Fashola Result: 2odds 2.29 Pending

Villarreal are the clear side to back here. They simply look the stronger team, and I expect them to take all three points against Alavés without much trouble.

SM Samuel Musa Over 3.5odds 2.95 Pending

Let’s cut to it: I’m backing Over 3.5 goals at a juicy 2.96. The logic is simple — both sides have the firepower to turn this into a shootout, and I don’t see either sitting back.

Alavés and Villarreal aren’t shy about pushing forward, and with the quality on display, I expect chances at both ends. This one has the feel of a high‑scoring affair, so I’m taking the risk for the payout.

VK Victor Kalu Result: Xodds 3.56 Pending

Last season’s encounter at the Mendizorrotza finished 1-1, and I see a similar script unfolding. Villarreal’s backline looks shaky, especially on the road, while Alavés have been consistent in front of their own fans and should make it three league games in a row with a goal. Another draw at 3.56 is a solid play.

OA Obinna Adamu Corners: Team 2 over 4.5odds 1.80 Pending

Villarreal are clearing the 4.5-corner mark in this LaLiga matchup. That's the call.

DA Daniel Abdullahi Over 3.5odds 2.95 Pending

Alavés host Villarreal in LaLiga on 28 August, and the total goals market is the play here. Over 3.5 at 2.95 is the bet I'm taking.

C collins_star Over 3.5odds 2.95 Pending

Alavés host Villarreal in LaLiga, and I'm backing over 3.5 goals. Villarreal are a crazy side — their matches are always chaotic and entertaining. At 2.95, the odds look generous for a game that should deliver plenty of action.

CS Chukwuma Suleiman Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.63 Pending
C cup.wizard Result: 2odds 2.28 Pending

Alavés vs Villarreal in LaLiga — I’m backing the visitors to get the win. Villarreal have the quality to outplay their hosts, and at 2.28 the price offers solid value for a straightforward away victory.

UO Uche Obiora Double chance: 1Xodds 1.68 Pending
GE Godwin Emenike Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.63 Pending
UI Uche I. Yellow cards: Team 2 over 2.5odds 2.40 Pending

Villarreal should take the lead and then shift into protecting that advantage. That kind of game script usually means more tactical fouls and deliberate stoppages, so I’m backing them to finish with over 2.5 yellow cards. At 2.40, the price looks right for a match where they’ll be defending a lead for long stretches.

AO Anthony Ogundipe Over 3odds 2.36 Pending

The line at Over 3 goals has solid value here, and I’m taking it. Villarreal are simply not looking convincing at all lately, which is why I see this match opening up. If their defense stays shaky, Alavés will have chances, and Villarreal still carry enough threat at the other end to push the total past the mark. At 2.36, it’s a strong angle to bet on goals to flow.

SG Segun Garba Corners: Over 11.5odds 2.88 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal are set to deliver a high number of corner kicks in this LaLiga clash. I’m backing the total corners to go over 11.5, and the attractive odds of 2.88 make this a solid value play. Both teams are aggressive in attack, and their playing styles naturally lead to plenty of set-piece opportunities.

SL Stanley L. Over 3.5odds 2.95 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal are set to face off in LaLiga, and I’m expecting a high-scoring affair. The over 3.5 goals market at 2.95 offers serious value here, as these two sides tend to produce entertaining, open matches. Both teams have the attacking quality to find the net multiple times, and defensive lapses often creep in during these encounters.

I’m backing this bet confidently because the stats and recent form point toward goals. With Villarreal’s aggressive style and Alavés’s home push, the conditions are ripe for at least four goals. This isn’t a gamble—it’s a calculated play on a pattern that holds up well in this fixture.

DL David L. Double chance: 1Xodds 1.68 Pending

Alavés have looked genuinely sharp in these opening rounds of the season, and their early form is hard to ignore. I’m backing them to avoid defeat at home against Villarreal, so the double chance on the hosts or a draw feels like the right call here. Their attacking play has been clicking, and that gives me real confidence they can at least hold their own on their own turf.

GO Godwin Obiora Result: 2odds 2.28 Pending

Villarreal can absolutely handle Alavés here. That’s why I’m backing the visitors to get the win.

JD Joseph Danjuma Over 3.5odds 2.95 Pending

This game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Villarreal have been on fire in front of goal, netting exactly two times in each of their opening two matches. On the other side, Alavés are consistent when playing at home and can always be counted on to find the back of the net.

I’m backing the total to go over 3.5 goals at a solid price of 2.95. Both sides have the attacking quality to make it happen, and the early-season form from the visitors suggests they won’t slow down now.

MM Musa Musa Corners: Result: 2odds 2.47 Pending

Villarreal will out-corner Alavés in this LaLiga fixture. The visitors are the clear pick to win the corner count, and that's the bet I'm locking in.

JA John Adebayo Result: 2odds 2.32 Pending

Too good to last — that's how I see Alavés' recent hot streak. Villarreal are overdue to start piling up points, and this is the spot for them to do it. I'm backing the visitors to win at 2.32.

J johnsage Under 2.5odds 2.00 Pending

Alavés and Villarreal are heading for a low-scoring affair in LaLiga. I'm taking Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 — I just don't see this turning into a goal fest. A wager on both teams failing to score also looks like a solid alternative.

N net_sage Under 2.5odds 2.00 Pending

This LaLiga clash between Alavés and Villarreal screams low-scoring. Both teams consistently prioritize defensive solidity in their meetings, playing it safe rather than committing numbers forward. Alavés at home are especially conservative, focusing first on not conceding, which has made their matches typically "under" affairs. That's exactly why I'm backing under 2.5 goals here.

AA Adewale Akintola Handicap 1 (0)odds 2.22 Pending

Alavés is a genuinely tough matchup for Villarreal, and the visitors have looked shaky to start the season. I see the home side having a real chance to take something from this game.

PD Peter Danjuma Over 1odds 1.01 Pending
OA Obinna Amadi Handicap 1 (0)odds 2.24 Pending

I’m backing Alavés to avoid defeat against Villarreal, with a handicap (0) at 2.24, and here’s why. What they’ve shown in attack and defense so far this season is impressive—solid at the back, dangerous going forward. Villarreal will be no pushover, but at home, Alavés have the edge to at least take a point. No reason to overthink this one.

SE Stanley Emenike Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.64 Pending
IE Ibrahim Ekwueme Over 2.5odds 1.83 Pending

Over 2.5 goals looks like the smart play here. Neither side is giving me any clear read on who takes the win, but the total feels more predictable.

Both Alavés and Villarreal have the attacking quality to push this game past the 2.5-goal mark. With the line at 1.83, I'm backing the goals to flow rather than trying to guess the winner.

Match poster

Alavés vs Villarreal — odds

❓ Frequently asked questions

When and where is the Alavés vs Villarreal match taking place?

The match is scheduled for 28 August 2026 at 20:30 local time at the Mendizorrotza stadium in Vitoria, as part of the third round of LaLiga.

What is the main betting prediction for this game?

The main prediction is 'Alavés to avoid defeat' (double chance: win or draw) at odds of 1.66, based on their strong form and unbeaten record at home against Villarreal in recent years.

Which team is considered the favourite based on the analysis?

Neither team is a clear favourite, but Alavés are seen as having the edge due to their unbeaten start, solid defence, and extra rest days, plus Villarreal's poor record in Vitoria.

Are there any key player absences or suspensions for this match?

Yes, Alavés will be without Garcés due to suspension. Villarreal have no unavailable players listed for this fixture.

What is the recommended goal-related bet for Alavés vs Villarreal?

The recommended goal bet is 'Both teams to score – Yes' at odds of 1.70, given six of the last seven head-to-head matches at Mendizorrotza saw goals at both ends and both teams have scored in every league game so far.

How have Alavés and Villarreal performed in their recent league matches?

Alavés are unbeaten, winning 3-0 against Getafe and drawing 1-1 with Rayo Vallecano. Villarreal have also not lost but have drawn both games 2-2, against Santander and Atlético Madrid.