Alavés vs Villarreal: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Alavés and Villarreal head into the third round of La Liga as two of the few remaining unbeaten sides, yet both have already dropped points. The Basques followed up their emphatic 3-0 win over Getafe with a frustrating 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano, despite creating a clear advantage in chances. Meanwhile, the visitors have started the campaign with two draws. Historically, Vitoria has been a particularly tricky destination for Villarreal, who have failed to win in their last five trips there. Can they finally break that streak this time around?

Tactical Analysis of Each Team

Alavés: Unbeaten Run Continues

Alavés have yet to taste defeat since the start of pre-season. Across four summer friendlies, the team recorded three victories (one of which came via penalties) and conceded only two goals. That strong form has carried over into the league. First, they dismantled Getafe 3-0, though context is key: the opposition played the entire second half with ten men, and it was during that period that Alavés netted all three goals. A more telling test came against Rayo Vallecano, ending in a 1-1 draw. The home side generated chances worth 2.00 xG compared to Rayo’s 0.43 and could easily have taken all three points, but poor finishing let them down.

Under Kike Sánchez Flores, the team looks well-balanced. They allow opponents very little while consistently carving out their own opportunities. The standout performer has been Mariano Díaz. The forward has played just 61 minutes across two matchdays but already has two goals and two assists to his name: he scored and set up two goals against Getafe, then came off the bench to equalise against Rayo. Remarkably, Mariano has scored in back-to-back league games for the first time in eight years. His form gives Alavés an extra dimension in attack, and the coach now has a genuine impact substitute on the bench. In the last match, it was precisely the players introduced from the sidelines who helped the Basques claw back a point and create several more clear-cut chances.

Villarreal: Stuttering Start

Villarreal enjoyed a solid pre-season, losing just two of seven fixtures. They looked particularly sharp in their final friendly, beating Galatasaray 2-1. Yet the league campaign has produced only two points from two well-fought encounters, both ending 2-2. In Santander, they trailed 2-0 but made the most of their limited opportunities, scoring twice from just 0.66 xG. The match against Atlético Madrid left a different aftertaste. After Le Normand’s 76th-minute red card, Villarreal had a man advantage and took the lead, only to concede an equaliser in the 85th minute. Despite creating 3.60 xG to Atlético’s 0.71—though that figure was inflated by two penalties—the result was another draw. It has been a paradoxical start: one match where they maximised their chances, followed by another where they created far more but still shared the spoils.

Under Iñigo Pérez, Villarreal are aiming to press more aggressively off the ball and transition quickly into attack. After the first round, the coach demanded greater intensity, and he was satisfied with the team’s execution of the game plan against Atlético. One persistent weakness has been depth in central midfield. Pérez has relied heavily on Gueye and Comesaña as his only experienced options at a high level. That makes the €15 million signing of Nathan Saliba from Anderlecht a logical move—the Canadian should add much-needed competition in that area. In Vitoria, clinical finishing will be crucial. Alavés have conceded very few goals across six matches this season (including pre-season), so any wastefulness of the kind Villarreal showed against Atlético could prove even more costly here.

Predicted Lineups

Alavés (5-2-1-2)

• Sivera
• Pérez, Tenaglia, Valentini, Otto, Rebbach
• Ibáñez, Blanco
• Rodríguez
• Boyé, Martínez

Unavailable: Garcés (suspension)

Head Coach: Kike Sánchez Flores

Villarreal (4-4-2)

• Luis Júnior
• Mouriño, Foyth, Veiga, Romero
• Pepe, Comesaña, Gueye, Moleiro
• Pérez, Mikautadze

Unavailable: None

Head Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Referee

(The original source did not provide any information about the referee for this match.)

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Alavés to avoid defeat

The Basques approach this fixture in fine form, having not lost either in pre-season or in the league so far. Another advantage is rest: Alavés have had three extra days to recover compared to Iñigo Pérez’s side, who are playing their third consecutive away game. The Mendizorrotza factor is especially important: the hosts are unbeaten in their last five home meetings with Villarreal, winning three and drawing two. The visitors, meanwhile, have yet to win in the new championship and have conceded exactly two goals in both rounds. Given the hosts’ current form and Villarreal’s historically difficult trips to Vitoria, Alavés look well placed to claim a result. Our main prediction is “Alavés to avoid defeat” at odds of 1.66.

Goal Prediction: Both teams to score

There are solid reasons to expect a high-scoring affair with goals at both ends. Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings at the Mendizorrotza have seen both sides find the net. The hosts now have several attacking options: Mariano has been the season’s first standout substitute, while the recovered Lucas Boyé—who scored 11 La Liga goals last season—has returned to the starting eleven after an injury. Villarreal have scored two goals in each of their two matches so far, but have also failed to keep a clean sheet. With the visitors’ attacking firepower and the Basques’ plentiful choices up front, betting on “Both teams to score – Yes” at 1.70 makes sense.