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Argentina vs Switzerland: prediction and odds

FIFA World Cup · World · 12 July 2026
Argentina logoArgentina
3:1
1st half: 1:0
12.07.2026 02:00
Switzerland logoSwitzerland

Match events

Alexis Mac Allister1:0
10′
44′
🟨Breel Embolo
67′
1:1Dan Ndoye
72′
🟨🟥Breel Embolo
Thiago Almada🟨
97′
Lautaro Martinez🟨
98′
Julian Alvarez2:1
112′
Jose Manuel Lopez🟨
114′
Lautaro Martinez3:1
121′

Match statistics: Argentina vs Switzerland

ArgentinaSwitzerland
1.81xG (expected goals)0.61
59Ball possession, %41
22Shots11
7Shots on target5
8Corners2
14Fouls18
4Offsides3
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
119Attacks106
65Dangerous attacks54

💡 Match preview Argentina vs Switzerland

In the semifinals of the North American World Cup, we could witness one of the most iconic rivalries in global football: England versus Argentina. However, for that to happen, the Three Lions must first overcome a surging Norway side in the quarterfinals. The reigning world champions, on the other hand, have drawn a far more manageable opponent at this stage. Switzerland has never beaten Argentina in an official match in their entire history: five wins for the Albiceleste and just two draws.

Argentina: Navigating Challenges with Honor

Argentina topped their group with a perfect nine points, defeating Algeria (3:0), Austria (2:0), and Jordan (3:1). Subsequently, Cape Verde and Egypt also failed to pose serious obstacles on paper. Yet, in both instances, the Albiceleste gave their fans plenty of reason to sweat—a 3:2 victory in extra time and another 3:2 win in regulation, respectively. Against the Pharaohs, they even pulled off a monumental comeback, trailing 0:2 as late as the 79th minute. However, it must be acknowledged that these difficulties were not rooted in systemic flaws. None of their opponents, including the last two, even came close to Lionel Scaloni’s side in terms of expected goals (xG)—averaging 2.05 against 0.53.

Even at 39 years old, Lionel Messi remains the team’s talisman, not only scoring in every match of the 2026 World Cup but also dictating the rhythm of play. Argentina packs the central zones to the brim and seeks to combine through short, intricate passes. And they do it brilliantly—only Brazil (2.41 average xG), France (2.28), and Turkey (2.17) have created more chances at this tournament. Yes, Scaloni’s men can sometimes be too slow, and teams of comparable quality playing a more intense brand of football could punish them for it. Switzerland, however, is not one of those teams. The Europeans are clearly inferior in class and, on top of that, do everything in their power to slow the game down.

Unlike their triumphant 2022 World Cup campaign, the Argentine head coach is not experimenting with formations and consistently uses a 4-4-2 setup, the most comfortable for Messi. Only a few personnel changes occur. For instance, the recovered Nicolas Tagliafico has reclaimed his usual left-back spot, while Leandro Paredes has won a place in central midfield, whose defensive skills will be valuable against Switzerland’s physically imposing midfield. The second striker position also rotates; this time, we expect Lautaro Martinez to start, whose brilliant cameo off the bench was arguably the decisive factor in the victory over Egypt. Especially since his competitor, Julian Alvarez, is having a rather mediocre tournament—no goal contributions in five matches.

Switzerland: Facing a Top-Tier Side for the First Time

Murat Yakin has built a solid team that has never underperformed at a major tournament. This time, the Swiss reached the quarterfinals without a single defeat against manageable opponents: Qatar (1:1), Bosnia and Herzegovina (4:1), Canada (2:1), Algeria (2:0), and Colombia (0:0, advancing on penalties). However, it is worth noting that against Canada and Colombia, the nominal visitors did not outperform their opponents in expected goals (xG), and they are unlikely to punch above their weight. In their last seven matches against top-10 FIFA-ranked teams, they have not won a single one, losing five times in regular time.

In most matches of this World Cup, Switzerland enjoyed the majority of possession, but in the quarterfinals, Yakin’s men will have to spend far more time in their own half. The Europeans have always been known for their tactical discipline, and their primary tasks will be to limit the space between the lines—where Lionel Messi loves to operate—and to block the central passing lanes for Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister. After winning the ball, Granit Xhaka will look to hit long passes to the wingers or the powerful striker Breel Embolo. In this way, the Red and Whites will try to catch Argentina on the counter, exploiting the open spaces that the South Americans often leave behind when committing numbers forward.

Yoan Manzambi’s injury turned out to be less severe than initially feared. However, the newly emerged leader of the European side (3 goals and 2 assists at the World Cup) is still not fully fit and will miss the quarterfinal clash. What the nominal visitors’ attack looks like without the Freiburg player (whose potential transfer to Newcastle is being discussed) was vividly demonstrated against Colombia—no goals scored and just 0.37 xG. His place in the starting XI will likely be taken again by Fabian Rieder, who has yet to register a single goal contribution in the tournament. The only predictable change in this scenario is the introduction of specialist right-back Silvan Widmer instead of Ardon Jashari, who did not perform well in the round of 16. Denis Zakaria would then move up into his more familiar central midfield role.

Predicted Lineups for Argentina vs. Switzerland

Argentina (4-4-2): E. Martinez – Molina, Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Tagliafico – De Paul, Mac Allister, Paredes, Fernandez – Messi, Lautaro Martinez

Out: Balerdi (injury)

Head Coach: Lionel Scaloni

Switzerland (4-3-3): Kobel – Widmer, Akanji, Elvedi, Rodriguez – Zakaria, Xhaka, Freuler – Rieder, Embolo, Ndoye

Out: Manzambi (injury); Hakes, Ebischer (both doubtful)

Head Coach: Murat Yakin

Referee: Joao Pinheiro (Portugal)

The Portuguese official has already refereed a match involving Switzerland at this World Cup (a 4:1 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina), showing just three yellow cards. With this, Pinheiro only confirmed his lenient refereeing style—he has not issued more bookings in any of his last four international matches.

Prediction and Bet for Argentina vs. Switzerland

Main Prediction: Argentina to Win at 1.69

The primary forecast: Switzerland has never reached the semifinals of either the World Cup or even the European Championship, and it is highly unlikely they will make a historic breakthrough in 2026. This is an average team in terms of both squad quality and playing potential, and stylistically, they will be very convenient for Argentina. The South Americans’ positional attack will have no trouble breaking down yet another parked bus, while Murat Yakin’s counterattacks will not carry the same danger as Egypt’s rapid forays—especially given Manzambi’s absence.

We cannot overlook the fatigue factor either. Argentina played a very tough match against Egypt but managed to secure a quarterfinal ticket in regular time. Switzerland, on the other hand, had to play 120 minutes and also had less time to recover. Considering also that Lionel Scaloni’s men have won each of their last 11 encounters against opponents outside the top 15 of the FIFA rankings (only against Cape Verde did they go to extra time), we suggest backing Argentina to win at 1.69 and a correct score of 2:1 at 8.75.

Prediction on Goals: Both Teams to Score at 2.09

Still, the Swiss are capable of scoring at least one goal. Argentina tends to overcommit to attack, leaving plenty of open space in their own half. Unsurprisingly, the nominal hosts have conceded in three consecutive matches, failing to keep a clean sheet even against Jordan. The Red and Whites, despite their poor record against top-10 FIFA-ranked teams, have managed to find the net in each of their last six such encounters. As an additional betting option, it makes sense to take both teams to score at 2.09.

Probable lineups: Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina logoArgentina4-4-2
E. Martinez
TagliaficoLisandro MartinezRomeroMolina
FernandezParedesMac AllisterDe Paul
Lautaro MartinezMessi
Out of squad:Balerdi · Injury
Switzerland logoSwitzerland4-3-3
Kobel
RodriguezElvediAkanjiWidmer
FreulerXhakaZakaria
NdoyeEmboloRieder
Out of squad:Manzambi · Injury

Match odds Argentina vs Switzerland

Result (1X2)

X3.5411.726.1

Double chance

1X1.14X22.23121.32

Both teams to score

No1.75Yes2.08

Over

11.0721.6333.24470.51.041.51.372.52.223.53.864.57.8

Under

16.3522.2131.3241.060.57.71.52.882.51.673.51.224.51.04

Handicap 1

01.2-12.29-25.45-1.53-2.56.25

Handicap 2

04.1511.6321.121.51.362.51.08

Correct score

0:07.10:112.50:2341:05.21:16.21:218.252:06.92:182:218.253:012.753:115.53:2334:0304:136

To qualify

11.3123.48

Predictions for Argentina vs Switzerland

KA Kingsley Adeyemi Over 0.5 (1st half)odds 1.53 Won

I'm betting on over 0.5 goals in the first half of Argentina vs Switzerland at 1.53 odds. Argentina's form is dominant—8 wins, 23 goals scored, just 3 conceded in their last 10 matches. Switzerland, meanwhile, have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, and first-half goals occurred in half of those. Argentina will come out aggressively to settle the match early, and Switzerland's defense is leaky enough to concede. Even if Argentina doesn't score quickly, Switzerland has shown they can find the net themselves. The stats and attacking firepower make this a strong play.

GI Gabriel Ibe Team 2 over 1odds 3.20 Void

Argentina is the clear favorite against Switzerland in their final match to decide the second semifinal pair, and while both teams are undefeated, the odds on Argentina are too low for my liking. I said before that Messi has lost his pace, but his vision and football IQ remain unmatched—he’s proven me right and then some, extending his scoring streak to seven games. However, Argentina’s goals don’t come cheap, and I see real value in betting on Switzerland to score. They’ve found the net in six of their last seven official matches, only failing against Colombia. Meanwhile, Argentina’s defense isn’t airtight—they’ve conceded to minnows like Cape Verde and Jordan, and Egypt led them by two goals, losing only due to controversial officiating. I’m backing Switzerland to score at least once, with odds above 3.00 offering solid value.

VO Victor Ogunleye Both teams to score — Yesodds 2.08 Won

I'm backing both teams to score in this Kansas City quarterfinal. Argentina are the clear favorites with Messi leading the tournament on nine goals and a near-home crowd, but their defense has been shaky—they've conceded in three straight matches after two opening clean sheets, including four goals in the two playoff games against Cape Verde and Egypt. They actually trailed Egypt 2-0 until the 79th minute and only escaped thanks to Messi's heroics.

Switzerland are no pushovers—they knocked out Algeria and Colombia in the playoffs without conceding a single goal—but their group stage defense was leaky, letting in goals against everyone including Qatar. Missing best young player Manzambi hurts, but they'll still find a way to score. This will be an open, attacking game with nobody sitting back. I expect at least three goals total, and while Argentina should win, Switzerland are tough enough to get on the scoresheet themselves.

UA Usman Abubakar Correct score 2:1odds 7.90 Lost

I'm confident Argentina will advance to the semifinals. They've been dominant at the back, but their lack of physical intensity is a real concern — even Egypt looked sharper in that regard. Messi has scored in every match so far, but this could be the first game he draws a blank. Instead, look for Lautaro Martínez to step up after his lively performance last time out. Argentina have scored at least two goals in every game, and in four of five they've bagged three — but I see fatigue catching up, so I'm betting they'll stay under three goals here.

Switzerland are the weakest team left in the quarterfinals. They're masters at shutting down games, and they tend to raise their level in the second half. Expect them to hold Argentina scoreless in the first half and then find the net themselves. But the world champions' relentless pressure will prove too much — comebacks have been a theme this tournament, and tonight will be no different. I'm backing Argentina to win from behind, with goals from Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez.

CA Collins Abubakar Result: 1odds 1.71 Lost

Argentina will win in regular time against Switzerland today. Switzerland barely scraped past Colombia on penalties after a goalless draw, while Argentina showed their champion mentality by coming back from 2-0 down to beat Egypt 3-2.

Switzerland is a tougher test than Argentina's previous opponents, but the world champions will be fully focused and minimize dangerous set pieces. They'll likely concede one goal, but their individual quality will ensure two or three of their own—enough for a clear victory.

CT Collins Tanko Handicap 2 (0)odds 3.94 Void

I'm backing Switzerland to avoid defeat against Argentina in tonight's World Cup quarterfinal. Argentina needed extra time to scrape past Cape Verde in the round of 16, and their win over Egypt in the last 16 was suspicious—Egypt forgot how to play football in the final 10 minutes, which felt orchestrated. I've watched these shows for years, and without referee help, this Argentina side wouldn't be this far. Switzerland, on the other hand, cruised through the group stage and tightened their defense in the knockout rounds, shutting out both Algeria and Colombia. They'll lock down Argentina's attack and find a goal themselves. My bet is Switzerland won't lose.

GO Godwin Olawale Both teams to score — Yesodds 2.08 Won

I'm confident that both Argentina and Switzerland will find the net in this World Cup quarterfinal. Switzerland is enjoying its best era, with experienced European players, speed, and a gritty character—they showed against Colombia they can absorb pressure and strike on counters or set pieces. Argentina's defense has been leaky, conceding at least two goals in each knockout match so far, and while their attack boasts Messi and world-class talent, they can't keep a clean sheet. So instead of guessing the winner, I'm betting on both teams scoring at least one goal each—the odds are solid for this outcome.

KN Kingsley Nwosu Correct score 1:0odds 5.25 Lost

Argentina got past Egypt in the last match, but it cost them a lot physically and emotionally. Still, the reigning champions are in good spirits—being one step from elimination and pulling off that historic comeback in World Cup history is priceless. That win earned them a spot in the quarterfinals. Truth is, Argentina hasn't looked rock-solid in this knockout stage; they conceded two goals against Cape Verde and another two against Egypt. It's time they remember how to defend properly, because they can do it well. Up front, Messi is still the difference-maker—he's been brilliant this tournament, scoring in almost every game.

Switzerland played out a goalless draw with Colombia and advanced on penalties. I wouldn't be surprised if they go with that same game plan again. They've shut down plenty of opponents with their organization, but scoring has always been a struggle. This match is likely to be low-scoring, with few chances—a classic game where one moment and one goal decides everything. Argentina should be the one to edge it.

GO Godwin Oni Double chance: X2odds 2.23 Won

I'm backing Switzerland to avoid defeat against Argentina in this World Cup quarterfinal. Switzerland, like Norway, is a dark horse that can spring a surprise. Argentina had two tough matches against African teams, and it feels like they're being pushed toward the final to set up a rematch of the last tournament. Based on performance, Switzerland is more stable and has improved after a slow start, delivering bright displays. Argentina remains unbeaten, but I'm not taking a straight Switzerland win—instead, I believe they'll fight hard and at least earn a draw. Their defense can contain Messi, and being the younger team gives them the stamina to last through regular time and extra time if needed. Switzerland has earned this with their play, so I'm betting on them not losing in regulation.

MI Musa Idris Team 2 over 0.5odds 1.77 Won

Argentina is the clear favorite here, and the referees will likely lean their way—having Messi in the semifinals and final (or the third-place match) is far more profitable for the World Cup organizers than the entire Swiss squad. The drop in ticket value after Portugal and the USA were eliminated has been widely discussed, so Argentina winning in regular time or advancing looks very attractive. Betting on X2 makes no sense, as Argentina's chances far outweigh a Swiss win or extra time.

Switzerland loves to attack and is capable of it, while Argentina's defense isn't flawless, so I'm taking a calculated risk. I'm going with both teams to score—yes—or a Swiss goal at 1.78, as I need odds above 1.75. Another intriguing but risky option is under 8.5 corners or under 3 yellow cards. I'd avoid betting on individual halves, given that in both Spain vs. Belgium and England vs. Norway, more goals were scored in the first half than the second. My pick: Switzerland over 0.5 goals at 1.76.

CM Chukwuma Madu custom: Обе забьют + Тотал больше 2.5odds 2.95 Lost

Argentina breezed through the group stage without breaking a sweat—Lionel Messi scored every goal as they secured top spot after just two matches. Then the knockout rounds started, and everything turned into a thriller. In the Round of 16, they went ahead twice, but Cape Verde clawed back both times, only for Argentina to snatch victory in the 111th minute. Next up was Egypt, who led 2-0 by the 79th minute—and Messi even missed a penalty. But Argentina stormed back with three goals to win 3-2, not even letting the game go to extra time.

Switzerland kicked off the World Cup with an unexpected 1-1 draw against Qatar, but then won their next two matches to top the group. They comfortably beat Algeria 2-0 in the Round of 16, then faced Colombia in a dull 90 minutes with few chances. Extra time saw Colombia push hard, but Switzerland held on and won the penalty shootout to reach the quarterfinals.

Argentina is the clear favorite here—Leo Messi is scoring in every game, dragging his team toward a second straight title. But their defense is a real concern. If Cape Verde and Egypt can score against them, Switzerland certainly will. I expect this match to follow Argentina's pattern in this tournament.

PREDICTION: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals at 2.95

SA Stanley Adewale Result: Xodds 3.70 Won

Argentina is more than just my favorite team—it’s a symbol of everything I love about football, especially with Messi leading the way. The way he’s delivered for 20 years is nothing short of fantastic, and Argentina’s ability to grind out wins like they did against Egypt shows their class. That match was a war: they trailed, dug deep, and snatched it at the death. That takes a toll—emotionally and physically—and every knockout round gets harder.

Switzerland didn’t reach the quarterfinals by accident. They’re disciplined, organized, and full of quality players who know how to frustrate opponents. They won’t collapse or gift chances. So I see this being a grind again. Argentina has the edge on paper, but a comfortable win is unlikely. I expect a tight battle that could easily go to extra time or be settled by a single goal. That’s why I’m betting on a draw in regular time at 3.70.

SA Samuel Adamu Over 2odds 1.64 Void

I'm backing over 2 goals in this match. Argentina's schedule is brutal—three games in eight days, and Leo Messi is carrying the team on his shoulders. They've just survived two exhausting battles: Cape Verde pushed them to extra time, and Egypt came back from 2-0 down before Messi rescued them. Fatigue is real, and that means defensive lapses late on. Switzerland, meanwhile, are disciplined and patient—they advanced without scoring in open play against Colombia. They'll sit deep, frustrate Argentina, and wait for their chance. This won't be a blowout, but the pressure will build. If it's still 0-0 at halftime, both sides will have to open up. I see at least two goals here—Argentina's attack is too good, and Switzerland will get their moments. Over 2 goals at 1.64 is the play.

SS Sunday Sowole Result: 1odds 1.69 Lost

I'm backing Argentina to win this one. The world champions reached the quarterfinals on a nerve-wracking ride, but now they face Switzerland—a team that knocked out Colombia and lives by the motto "can beat anyone, lose to anyone." The Swiss will do what they do best: park the bus in the box and try to man-mark Messi out of the game. Argentina, spooked by defensive lapses, will play it safer too. Expect a grind-it-out match with few goals and heavy tactical chess. Even so, I believe the superior individual quality of the favorites will see them through. Argentina wins.

BA Biodun Adeyemi Result: 1odds 1.69 Lost

I’m backing Argentina to win. The Swiss squeezed everything out of themselves to beat Colombia on penalties, but they paid a heavy price—four key starters are questionable, and the right flank is completely bare. Scaloni is a genius with his in-game subs, but the way Argentina keeps toying with their fans’ nerves is a bad habit for champions. Messi at 39 is still carrying the team, and I expect Argentina to finally stop messing around and switch back to the ruthless mode we saw four years ago. Class and character win out here.

CA Chukwuma Akintola Result: 1odds 1.68 Lost

I'm predicting Argentina to win. They showed incredible character in their comeback against Egypt, with Messi scoring his eighth goal of the tournament — a clear statement for the Golden Boot. Switzerland, meanwhile, lost their best player Manzambi before the match and have never beaten Argentina in two World Cup meetings. This is their first quarterfinal since 1954, and that's where their run ends. The champions will continue defending their title.

US Uche Salami custom: Гол Мессиodds 1.90 Lost

I’m betting on Messi to score late. Argentina has been playing possum all tournament, turning routine matches into nail‑biters on purpose. They love the drama — fall behind, then stage a comeback. The Swiss defense is so slow that even a 39‑year‑old Messi will find a window for a precise finish in the final stretch. That’s exactly when he always delivers.

My prediction: Messi to score — odds 1.90.

FO Femi Oladipo Both teams to score — Yesodds 2.20 Won

I'm sticking with both teams to score in this Argentina match. The World Cup scriptwriters are clearly working overtime for La Albiceleste — they needed overtime to beat Cape Verde and then staged a miracle comeback against Egypt. Their defense is Swiss cheese: even Jordan and a modest African side carved them open. Against a disciplined Switzerland with lethal counters, they will concede again. But Argentina will also score — Messi is unstoppable, and this team fights until the final whistle. The physical and emotional toll from those thrillers only makes the defensive issues worse. Both teams getting on the scoresheet is the rock-solid call.

AO Aliyu Ogundipe Result: 1odds 1.69 Lost

I'm backing Argentina to win. They came back from two goals down against Egypt, relying heavily on Messi, and their mentality is outstanding—they simply know how to get the job done. Even down 0-2 with ten minutes left, I fully expected them to equalize. Switzerland have looked impressive, but I still favor Argentina and Messi. I believe they'll put in a strong performance and win 3-0, so my bet is on Argentina.

PO Peter Obiora custom: Тотал ударов в 1 тайме меньше 9.5odds 1.70 Won

Switzerland will still be without Manzambi, and that’s a significant loss. He was the breakout star of this tournament, bringing speed, movement, and options to their attack. Without him, their offensive threat is even more limited. But the real tone here will be set by Argentina with their slow, deliberate pace.

I expect Argentina to be motivated by their matches against Egypt and Cape Verde, which should push them to play faster and more carefully. But their style won’t change drastically—they read the game, control the ball, and only then accelerate and look for chances. So I don’t see a sudden shift in the script. Argentina consistently keeps first-half shots low, and the under 9.5 shots on goal mark has held in every one of their tournament matches. Switzerland’s pattern is similar, except against Qatar, but the level of opposition here is completely different. The first half will be about control, caution, and minimal risk. That’s why I’m backing under 9.5 shots on goal in the first half.

Match poster

Argentina vs Switzerland — odds