Atalanta vs Athletic: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Atalanta and Athletic Bilbao are set to collide in Bergamo for the Achille and Cesare Bortolotti Trophy, a preseason fixture that honours the memory of the club’s former presidents. For Maurizio Sarri’s side, this is far more than a routine friendly – it’s a dress rehearsal ahead of their upcoming European qualifier. The Basques, meanwhile, will be eager to bounce back after a disappointing trip to Marseille. Can Atalanta keep the trophy at home, or will Athletic spoil Sarri’s home debut?

Tactical Analysis: Atalanta

Sarri is steadily reshaping Atalanta’s identity. The early friendlies were high-scoring but against modest opposition – a 2‑1 win over the club’s own youth team, a 3‑2 comeback against Arezzo (trailing 0‑2), and a 1‑1 draw with Mantova. Far more revealing were the two most recent tests. First came a 1‑2 loss to Feyenoord, where the Dutch side dominated possession (around 61%) in a match that ran 2×45 minutes plus an extra 30. The response was emphatic: a 3‑0 shutout of Schalke, the first clean sheet of the summer.

Sarri continues to experiment with the team’s structure. In the earliest friendlies he deployed his trademark 4‑3‑3, then switched to a back three against Feyenoord, adapting his ideas to players accustomed to Gasperini’s system. Against Schalke, however, he reverted to 4‑3‑3 and produced the most convincing performance of the preseason. The rebuild is far from complete, but the early signs of the new model are encouraging.

Key summer departures include Palestra, sold to Chelsea for €57 million (he was on loan at Cagliari last season), and Jimsi, who made over 320 appearances for the club. Losing an experienced defender is particularly painful as Sarri overhauls the back line. To make matters worse, Hien is still recovering from injury. The main arrival is Gaetano, a versatile midfielder who can operate in several roles, help progress the ball, and control the tempo.

Tactical Analysis: Athletic Bilbao

Athletic went unbeaten in their first six friendlies, keeping five clean sheets – though most opponents came from Spain’s lower divisions. The real test came against Marseille, and it exposed weaknesses: a 1‑3 defeat. The Basques faced a side of genuine quality for the first time and immediately struggled. Marseille out‑intensified them, created chances regularly, and Padilla had to make several saves to prevent a heavier loss. Now Athletic face another serious examination.

The squad’s availability is gradually improving. Unai Simón, Laporte, and Nico Williams returned to training on 10 August after a three‑week break and joined the group session the following day. With only three training sessions before the match in Bergamo, they could feature, but a starting spot is not guaranteed. Two players remain sidelined: Vivian and Egilus are still recovering from injuries.

Summer departures include Vesga and Unai Gómez. Neither was an automatic starter, but both were regularly used in rotation. Vesga’s exit is especially notable – he spent around a decade at the club. Gómez made 37 appearances across all competitions last season, covering multiple positions. Their absence primarily weakens the depth of the midfield.

Predicted Lineups

Atalanta (4-3-3): Carnesecchi – Zappacosta, Scalvini, Ahanor, Bernasconi – Samardžić, Ederson, Gaetano – De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Raspadori Out: Hien (injury) Head coach: Maurizio Sarri

Athletic Bilbao (4-3-2-1): Padilla – Areso, Álvarez, Paredes, Berchiche – Jauregizar, Galarreta – I. Williams, Sancet, Navarro – Guruzeta Out: Vivian, Egilus (both injured) Head coach: Edin Terzić

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Atalanta to win Atalanta are building momentum under Sarri. After the disappointing loss to Feyenoord (1‑2), they responded impressively by beating Schalke 3‑0. Athletic, by contrast, faced their first strong opponent in Marseille and lost 1‑3. Their World Cup returnees are still regaining match fitness.

The Bergamo factor also matters: Atalanta play at home for the first time this summer, and the match is for the Achille and Cesare Bortolotti Trophy. Moreover, this serves as a final rehearsal before their Conference League qualifier on 20 August. Athletic’s first La Liga match (against Sevilla) is a week and a half away, so Terzić can manage the workload more freely. The proximity of an official fixture gives the Italians more reason to play for a result. Backing Atalanta to win looks the smart play.

Goals prediction: Over 2.5 total goals Despite the clean sheet against Schalke (3‑0), Atalanta’s defence is still adapting to Sarri’s demands – they had conceded in four consecutive friendlies before that. The attack, however, is firing: they have scored in all five preseason matches. Athletic have also found the net in every one of their seven summer games, including the 1‑3 defeat to Marseille. Both sides consistently create chances, so a high‑scoring affair is likely. Take over 2.5 goals.