Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Italian clubs have built a remarkable reputation for navigating the Conference League qualifiers since the tournament’s inception, and Atalanta are keen to uphold that tradition. However, Hapoel Tel Aviv have very different plans. The Israeli side have faced Serie A representatives four times in European competition, winning twice and losing only once, proving they are no pushovers.

A New Tactical Identity for Atalanta

For a decade, Gian Piero Gasperini and his disciples forged Atalanta into a machine built on intense man-to-man pressing, relentless verticality, and raw athleticism. But the summer appointment of Maurizio Sarri as head coach signals a radical shift in philosophy. The Bergamaschi are now embracing possession-based football, compact zonal defending, and build-up play through short and medium-range passes. So far, Sarri’s men have only played friendlies, but the results are encouraging: three wins (1-0 against Athletic Club, 3-0 versus Schalke, and 3-2 over Arezzo) and a single defeat (1-2 to Feyenoord). Notably, Atalanta won every friendly in which they deployed Sarri’s trademark 4-3-3 formation, while their only loss came when they reverted to the old 3-4-2-1 setup.

The season’s primary objective is a return to the Champions League, and that path runs exclusively through Serie A. The Conference League, therefore, will serve as a testing ground and a platform for reserve players to gain minutes. But that approach only applies once the group stage is secured. For Thursday’s clash, Sarri is expected to field his strongest available XI. With the domestic campaign kicking off this weekend, he won’t pass up the chance to give his side a competitive run-out. The only notable absentee is Charles De Ketelaere, who is recovering from a minor knock. His spot on the right flank will likely be taken by Nicola Zalewski.

Hapoel’s Away-Day Struggles

The Israeli Premier League has yet to begin, but Hapoel have already played six official matches in the 2026/27 season, giving them a clear edge in match fitness. In the local Toto Cup, Elianiv Barda’s side reached the final, overcoming Beitar (2-2, win on penalties) and Ironi (2-1). In the Conference League, they dispatched Ludogorets (2-0 and 2-2) and Katowice (2-0 and 1-2). Yet European experience remains scarce for the Red-and-Whites—this is their first foray onto the continental stage since 2014. That inexperience is most glaring in away matches: they have yet to win a single road game across two qualifying rounds.

Barda has been in charge for nearly two years, instilling an aggressive style built on man-to-man pressing and rapid transitions. However, against stronger opponents, only the second element comes into play. Even against Israel’s top sides, Hapoel avoid pressing high, preferring to park the bus. Expect a deep defensive block in Bergamo. On the personnel front, Barda fielded an identical starting XI in both legs of the previous round. With no injuries or suspensions to worry about, the same eleven should take the pitch at the New Balance Arena.

Predicted Lineups

Atalanta (4-3-3): Carnesecchi – Zappacosta, Kossounou, Scalvini, Bernasconi – Samardzic, Gaetano, Ederson – Zalewski, Scamacca, Raspadori

Unavailable: Hien, De Ketelaere, Ahanor, K. Sulemana (all injured)

Head Coach: Maurizio Sarri

Hapoel Tel Aviv (4-2-3-1): Tzur – Ried, Mayembo, Chico, Leidner – Falcao, Krayev – Turiel, Alkukin, Altman – Boateng

Unavailable: None

Head Coach: Elianiv Barda

The Referee

Javier Alberola Rojas of Spain will officiate. This is only his fourth European assignment, but early signs suggest he is lenient with cards—averaging just 2.33 yellow per match. He also calls very few fouls, with an average of 19.33 per game.

Prediction and Bet

Main Bet: Atalanta to win with a -2.5 handicap at 2.24

The odds accurately reflect the gulf in quality between these sides. Hapoel may be far more motivated to achieve something in the Conference League, but the gap between Israel’s fourth-best team and a perennial Serie A European contender is simply too wide.

As usual, the visitors will drop into a low block against a superior opponent. However, Atalanta’s positional attack should be more than capable of breaking it down. Even the Bergamaschi’s reserve attackers make decisions in the final third far quicker than Hapoel’s defenders, who committed numerous errors even against modest Polish side Katowice. Add in Atalanta’s vast European experience versus Hapoel’s near-total lack of it, and a comfortable home victory looks likely. The -2.5 handicap offers solid value at 2.24.

Total Goals Bet: Under 3.5 at 1.78

Still, a goal-fest isn’t expected. Matches involving Hapoel in this European campaign have averaged 2.75 goals per game. Meanwhile, Atalanta have not scored three or more goals in any of their last three summer friendlies. The under 3.5 market, priced at 1.78, is worth considering.