Atalanta vs Venezia: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

After a stumbling start under their new manager, Atalanta are desperate to climb back into the upper half of the Serie A table, and Venezia hardly look like the side to stand in their way. The Bergamaschi have won four of the last five meetings between these clubs, and with the visitors rooted to the bottom without a single point, the gap in quality feels as wide as ever.

A Difficult Rebuilding Process

The summer was meant to usher in a new era in Bergamo. Atalanta decided to abandon the man-oriented pressing system that defined Gian Piero Gasperini’s reign and was carried on by Ivan Juric and Raffaele Palladino, instead turning to Maurizio Sarri’s possession-based philosophy. So far, though, the revolution has not taken hold. Over the last three rounds of Serie A, the Nerazzurri have collected zero points and slipped out of the top ten, falling to Roma (1:2), Juventus (0:2) and even Cagliari (1:2). Their underlying numbers make for grim reading: at home, they average just 0.81 xG per match, the second-worst mark in the division and only ahead of Parma’s 0.69.

Defensively, things are hardly more reassuring. Atalanta allow an average of 1.88 xGA per game, the fourth-highest figure in the league. With key personnel missing, there is little reason to expect immediate improvement after the international break. Both Odilon Kossounou and Isak Hien, two potential starters at centre-back, are sidelined through injury. Up front, Sarri may also be without Giacomo Raspadori, who has scored one of Atalanta’s five league goals this season. The forward has returned to training, but his match fitness is far from certain.

An Unambiguous Underdog

Three Serie A clubs have already changed coaches this term, yet Venezia, the only team in the division still without a point, remain loyal to Giovanni Stropna. That faith is not backed by much evidence. The orange-black-green side certainly know how to press – they have made 64 high regains, a total only Roma can beat after five rounds. But that pressing intensity does not translate into results. Once opponents bypass the first line of pressure, they find vast amounts of space to exploit. Venezia have been punished not only by the league’s elite but also by comparable sides such as Frosinone (2:3) and Lecce (0:2).

The visitors’ injury list further complicates matters. Several important players are unavailable, and the loss of captain Gianluca Busio is especially painful. The American has been the heartbeat of Venezia’s midfield for years, and without him the team find it even harder to contain fast counter-attacks. For all their attacking intent, Stropna’s men have scored only four goals in Serie A, and just one of those came from star striker Achor Adams, the most expensive signing in the club’s history.

Predicted Lineups

Atalanta (4-2-3-1): Carnesecchi – Bellanova, Christensen, Scalvini, Bernasconi – Kessie, Ederson – Elmas, De Ketelaere, Roux – Scamacca Unavailable: Hien, Kossounou, K. Sulemana (all injured), Raspadori (doubtful) Coach: Maurizio Sarri

Venezia (3-5-2): Stankovic – Moreno, Jesus, Halal – Aino, Perez, Basic, Zom, Correia – Yeboa, Adams Unavailable: Franjic, Busio, Schverko, Adorante (all injured) Coach: Giovanni Stropna

Referee

Paride Tremolada is not a familiar face in Italy’s top flight, having received relatively few Serie A assignments. However, he has taken charge of four matches involving Atalanta or Venezia, and only once did he show fewer than four yellow cards. The official has also waved at least five bookings in each of his last five Serie A games, so his strict approach could have a bearing on the flow of the match.

Prediction and Bet

Atalanta were clearly struggling before the international break, but there is no better opponent to face when trying to rediscover a winning formula than Venezia. Stropna’s bold approach – intense pressing and a high defensive line – looks ill-suited to the quality of his squad at the top level. It is unlikely to work against Bergamaschi attackers who can release the ball quickly into the gaps that constantly open up behind the visitors’ defence. Venezia have already faced three superior opponents this season in Lazio, Milan and Fiorentina, losing all three by a two-goal margin. Expect more of the same here.

Main prediction: Atalanta to win with a handicap of (-1.5) at odds of 2.31.

Total prediction: Venezia’s open style means they have conceded at least two goals in every league match this campaign. Yet they have also scored four times in their last three games, so a lively, high-scoring encounter is on the cards. Back over 3.5 goals at 2.33.