Atletico Madrid vs Getafe: prediction and odds

Atletico Madrid kicks off their summer friendly schedule with a closed-door derby against Getafe. Diego Simeone's squad is just easing into preseason, with the coach shuffling the lineup, while Jose Bordalas attempts to patch up holes after a series of injuries to key players. His side has yet to lose in their control matches. Can they extend that run?

Simeone's First Sketches

Atletico has conducted eight training sessions and a closed sparring match in Majadahonda, where Simeone tested a 4-3-3 formation with two different lineups. The team has just returned from vacation, and many key players are absent after the World Cup: Llorente, Molina, Grimaldo, Baena, Almada, Simeone Jr., and Sorloth. Lee Kang-in, bought to replace Griezmann, is not yet in the training camp of Atletico. The situation with striker Julian Alvarez is unclear – the forward wants to leave, but the club is holding off.

Transfers are primarily aimed at closing problem areas: Hjulmand from Sporting adds power in the defensive midfield, Grimaldo should add reliability to the left flank of defense, and Kang-in brings creativity upfront. The squad is being renewed, but it's far from optimal. The first preseason match is more about reviewing reserves than working on results. Furthermore, in three days, Atletico will play a much more prestigious opponent – Manchester United. Most likely, the Atletico coach will split playing time in the match against Getafe between two lineups.

Bordalás Doesn't Abandon Defensive Style

This upcoming match will be Getafe's fourth in 12 days. After a victory over Reading (1:0), marred by four muscle injuries, the team beat Tenerife (2:1) and played a goalless draw with Valladolid. In the last match, Bordalás again changed the lineup: young Diego Ferrer appeared in goal, while Abkar, Valu, Femenia, and Zaid Romero played in defense. Uche created good chances, but the opponent's goalkeeper Aceves was at his best. The physical condition of the players after such a packed schedule is not the best. But rotation saves the situation – in control matches, the number of substitutions is not regulated. Bordalás will distribute loads evenly to avoid an epidemic of muscle injuries. We must not forget that in the upcoming season, the club will play in the Conference League, which increases the load on the core.

The main oddity of the preseason is the situation with the starting goalkeeper. David Soria has not played a minute in three matches without apparent reason: no injuries, no official transfer offers. Bordalás uses Letacek and Ferrer, but the silence around the first-choice goalkeeper raises questions. Borja Mayoral only played a half against Reading and disappeared from the squad – the club also does not comment on the situation. Meanwhile, Andres Garcia is out with a muscle injury, and Javi Munoz and Neyu are put up for transfer. Losses in midfield remain a key problem: Milla and Arambarri have left, while young Terrats and Martin have not yet produced results. In attack, the bet on Uche and Satriano looks workable.

Predicted Lineups

Atletico Madrid (4-3-3): Oblak – Bonar, Gimenez, Janko, Ruggeri – Barrios, Hjulmand, Mendoza – Lukman, Martin, Mota

Not playing: Lemar, Cardoso (both – questionable), Llorente, Molina, Grimaldo, Baena, Almada, J. Simeone, Sorloth, Lee Kang-in (all – on vacation)

Head coach: Diego Simeone

Getafe (5-2-2-1): Letacek – Bekchua, Romero, Boselli, Valua, Davinci – Terrats, Munoz – Martin, Uche – Satriano

Not playing: Garcia, Gimenez (both – questionable)

Head coach: Jose Bordalas

Match Prediction

Main prediction: Getafe will not lose.

The difference in match fitness comes to the fore. Getafe has played three friendlies, built connections, and is at a more advanced stage of preparation. Simeone's team is objectively not ready for a full match. Add the personnel context: the hosts are missing a group of players after the World Cup, with the squad composed of first-team and youth players. The guests have their own problems – uncertainty with Soria and Mayoral, loss of Milla and Arambarri in midfield. But in friendlies, physicality and cohesion come to the forefront, and here the advantage is on Getafe's side. Consider the bet: Getafe will not lose.

Prediction on total: Both opponents are far from optimal conditions in attack. Atletico is only getting into the workload, Getafe has conceded one goal in three matches and operates in the usual pragmatic style of Bordalás. A closed game with minimal chances is expected. Take the bet: total under (2.5).