Benevento vs Modena: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Benevento secured a well-deserved promotion last season and carried that momentum into their summer friendlies with encouraging displays. The side looks more than capable of overcoming a tough opponent in their Serie B opener. Modena, on the other hand, boasts a stronger squad on paper but has looked shaky in recent outings. It’s clear the visitors have yet to hit their stride.

Tactical Analysis of Benevento

Benevento stormed through the 2023/24 Serie C Group C campaign, finishing top of the table with 82 points from 38 matches. Their goal difference of 74:28 underlined just how dominant they were at both ends of the pitch. In the Coppa Italia, they produced a wild 5-3 win over lower-league Ravenna before falling 4-1 to Fiorentina. Summer friendlies saw them draw 2-2 with Serie B side Frosinone, then beat Vis Pesaro 2-1 and Ostiamare 2-0. The hosts have kept their winning mentality and maintained a sharp attacking edge, but matches against Fiorentina and Frosinone exposed defensive frailties when facing higher-caliber opponents.

Tactical Analysis of Modena

Modena finished 6th in Serie B last season, collecting 55 points from 38 games with a goal difference of 49:36. In the Coppa Italia, they battled hard but lost 3-2 to Venezia, a Serie A side. Their pre-season included a 1-0 win over Trento, a 5-0 thrashing of amateur side Bolzano, a 0-0 draw with Vis Pesaro, and a narrow 1-0 loss to Cagliari. The visitors play a disciplined, structured brand of football built on a solid defense. In friendlies, Modena conceded very few goals, but away from home they tend to play cautiously and avoid pushing the tempo.

Tournament Motivation

Benevento are eager to kick off their Serie B campaign with a win in front of their home fans, proving they belong in the second division. Modena are targeting points on the road to immediately join the race for a playoff spot.

Squad Situation

Benevento let left winger Jacopo Manconi, striker Mario Perlingieri, and defender Diego Borghini leave in the summer transfer window. In response, they signed experienced striker David Okereke as a free agent, left-back Pietro Beruatto from Pisa, and loaned winger Luigi Cherubini from Roma. These new arrivals bring solid experience and have strengthened the hosts’ attacking options.

Modena sold midfielder Samuele Vianefi to Genoa for €3 million, while also parting ways with defensive midfielder Fabio Gerli and forward Ettore Gliozzi. However, the club reinvested €3 million to bring in quality midfield reinforcements: Alessandro Bianco from Fiorentina, Alessandro Sersanti from Juventus, and Giacomo Olzer from Pescara. This overhaul of the midfield has kept the squad balanced.

Predicted Lineups

Benevento (4-3-3): Paleari; Beruatto, Capellini, Pastina, El Kaouakibi; Talia, Karic, Nardi; Cherubini, Okereke, Lanini.

Modena (4-2-3-1): Gagno; Cauz, Zaro, Cotali, Dellavalle; Bianco, Olzer; Palumbo, Tremolada, Strizzolo; Abiuso.

Referee

The match will be officiated by Daniele Rutella, an experienced Serie B referee known for letting play flow while keeping a firm hand on discipline.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Benevento to win at odds of 2.31

Benevento are in fine form, having won three of their last five matches. At home, they traditionally play with power and confidence, making them well-equipped to beat Modena here. The visitors overhauled their midfield this summer, and their new signings still need time to build chemistry. Modena also look unconvincing at the moment, having lost two of their last four games. We don’t expect a strong showing from them this time. Our pick is a Benevento victory at 2.31. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 47% (anything above 2.20 is worth playing).

Prediction on Total Goals: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88

Benevento can be very active in attack, as we saw last season. In Serie C, their matches averaged 2.7 goals per game. Still, we don’t anticipate a high-scoring affair here. Modena are experts at slowing games down and defending solidly. Last season, their matches averaged just 2.2 goals. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.88. We put the probability at 56% (anything above 1.78 is playable).