Benfica vs St. Gallen: prediction and odds

The first leg produced a seismic shock: St. Gallen, returning to Europe’s second-tier competition after a six-year absence, edged Benfica 2-1. The Portuguese giants remain heavy favourites to overturn the deficit, but can they settle the tie inside 90 minutes, or will the Swiss side force extra time?

Tactical Analysis: Benfica

Benfica’s complacency in the first leg was punished not only on the scoreboard but also in the underlying numbers. Despite enjoying 61% possession, the Eagles registered fewer shots (14 to 17) and a lower expected goals tally (1.32 xG against St. Gallen’s 1.74). A truncated pre-season may be partly to blame: Marco Silva’s men played only two friendlies – a 1-2 loss to Flamengo and a 2-0 win over Villarreal. The day after the Europa League defeat, Silva gave his fringe players a run-out, and they responded with a 5-1 thrashing of third-tier Belenenses. Gianluca Prestianni bagged a brace, but he will be unavailable for the return leg due to suspension.

This is Benfica’s fourth time in European qualifying (Champions League) in five years, but it is the first time they have entered the second leg trailing. Notably, they have never lost a home qualifying match in that period. Expect changes to the XI that started in Switzerland: Alexander Bah’s error led to the first goal conceded, so Amar Dedić may replace him. Tiago Gouveia impressed off the bench (two key passes in 24 minutes) and could start ahead of new signing Jakub Kamiński. The availability of Fredrik Aursnes, Richard Ríos, Dodi Lukebakio, and Andreas Schjelderup remains uncertain as they returned late from international duty.

Tactical Analysis: St. Gallen

Enrico Maassen’s side lulled Benfica into a false sense of security after heavy friendly defeats to Lyon (3-6) and Norwich (0-3). Yet scoring three against Lyon hinted at their attacking potency. That efficiency carried into the Swiss league opener: despite generating only 1.64 xG, they beat Zürich 2-1, with Andrin Hunziker – a classic target man – netting the winner. However, Hunziker is not yet a starter; Maassen prefers a fast, vertical style, so the front two remain wingers Aliu Baldé and Christian Witzig.

The injury list is not critical, but the centre of defence has been hit hardest, forcing inexperienced academy players onto the bench. The core of the starting XI is fit, though promising Cyrill May has lost his place even before getting injured. Notably, Maassen did not rotate for the Zürich match, meaning his players have only three days to recover, while Benfica enjoyed a full week of preparation.

Predicted Lineups

Benfica (4-2-3-1): Trubin – Dedić, Silva, Lenglet, Dahl – Manu Silva, Barrenechea – Rafa Silva, Sudakov, Gouveia – Pavlidis Unavailable: Prestianni (suspended); Aursnes, Ríos, Lukebakio, Schjelderup (doubtful) Head coach: Marco Silva

St. Gallen (3-5-2): Ati-Zigi – Okoroji, Stanić, Gall – Vandermersch, Buchalifa, Daschner, Görtler, Stevanović – Witzig, Baldé Unavailable: May, Kleine-Bekel, Ambrosius, Neziri, Weibel, Efekele, Scherrer (all injured) Head coach: Enrico Maassen

Referee: Florian Badstübner (Germany)

Badstübner was the most lenient referee in the German top flight last season, averaging just 2.21 yellow cards per match. However, his first taste of European football in 2023/24 tells a different story: over three games in the Europa League and Conference League, he brandished 12 yellow cards and recorded an average of 27.67 fouls per match.

Prediction and Bet

St. Gallen +2.5 handicap at 1.69 Bookmakers heavily discount the Swiss side’s chances of even forcing extra time, partly due to the home advantage at the Estádio da Luz. Yet Benfica’s home form in qualifying has been far from dominant: last season they beat Nice twice (2-0, 2-0) and, after a goalless draw away to Fenerbahçe, managed only a 1-0 win at home. Having deservedly lost the first leg without showing anything special, there are doubts about a rout. The +2.5 handicap for St. Gallen offers a safety net.

Both teams to score – Yes at 2.08 Benfica will dominate possession, which suits both sides. The Eagles are accustomed to taking the initiative domestically, while St. Gallen thrive on vertical transitions. Even with only 39% possession in the first leg, Maassen’s men generated more xG and scored twice. The visitors have shown clinical finishing early in the season, but keeping a clean sheet against such an experienced and talented opponent seems unlikely. Benfica have never failed to progress through qualifying when participating, and they will need goals to do so. Backing both teams to find the net looks the smart play.