Borussia Dortmund vs Roma: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Roma will put the finishing touches on their pre-season preparations at the iconic Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, facing off against the local Borussia. These two European heavyweights have not crossed paths in the 21st century, but there is a familiar face for the Giallorossi faithful: Donyell Malen, last season's top scorer for Roma, enjoyed one of the finest chapters of his career in a Borussia shirt, racking up 59 goal involvements across 132 appearances.

Pressing as the Primary Weapon

Borussia Dortmund's pre-season campaign has been a mixed bag, with three wins and two losses. However, the one truly high-profile clash under Niko Kovač's guidance ended in victory—and even brought home a piece of silverware. In the Emirates Cup, the Black and Yellows edged past London's Arsenal (3-2), despite fielding a large number of reserve players to give them valuable minutes.

Just as in competitive fixtures, Dortmund rely heavily on winning the ball back quickly in the opponent's half. This approach was on full display against the Gunners (3-2), where they had already netted two goals by the 29th minute thanks to aggressive pressing from the front line. Yet, there is a clear vulnerability: in their 3-4-2-1 formation, the wing-backs push extremely high. If the opposition manages to intercept the ball in midfield or break the press cleanly, the spaces left behind these advanced players become prime real estate for rapid counter-attacks.

During the current transfer window, Dortmund have, as per their tradition, snapped up several young talents. The most promising among them appear to be centre-back Joan Gadu from Red Bull Salzburg and attacking midfielder Konstantinos Karetsas from Genk. Despite their tender ages, both are already pushing for starting spots—a claim they backed up in the friendly against Arsenal, each scoring a goal. The French defender, in particular, played the full 90 minutes, showcasing impressive physical condition for this stage of pre-season.

A Gloomy Summer in Rome

"Hard in training, easy in battle"—this might be the motto Roma are following this summer, as they have looked lackluster even against sides of inferior quality. The only bright spot was a 4-1 win over Newport County, a team from England's fourth division. But in their very next friendly, the Giallorossi were dismantled by Premier League mid-table side Brighton (3-0).

Gian Piero Gasperini appears determined to build a strong fitness foundation for the multi-front campaign ahead, and as a result, Roma have often looked a step too slow in these friendlies. Another glaring issue is their vulnerability to intense pressing, which was painfully exposed against the Seagulls. Roma were pinned back in their own half and made repeated errors when trying to play out from the back.

Roma's marquee summer signing is Santiago Castro from Bologna, who is ready to slot in as the centre-forward, allowing Donyell Malen to drift into the half-space. The young Argentine, unlike many of his teammates, has shown excellent physical readiness and holds the ball up well. While he still lacks full chemistry with his new colleagues, he has already registered his first goal contributions for the club—a goal and an assist against Newport. Another newcomer, Konstantinos Koulierakis, has also made his mark. The Greek defender found the net against the same League Two side, and notably, when he was on the pitch during the disappointing Brighton match, Roma did not concede a single goal.

Predicted Lineups

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1): Kobel – Gadu, Mané, Bensebaini – Ryerson, Nmecha, Jobe Bellingham, Svensson – Inácio, Karetsas – Silva

Unavailable: Schlotterbeck, Can, Prates (all injured)

Head Coach: Niko Kovač

Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar – Mancini, N'Dicka, Koulierakis – Molina, Cristante, El Aynaoui, Wesley – Dybala, Malen – Castro

Unavailable: Bà, Pisilli, Cherubini (all injured)

Head Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini

Referee

The match officials have not been announced for this friendly encounter.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to Win at 2.15

The two sides are fairly matched in terms of quality, but at this stage of pre-season, Borussia look far more physically prepared. Dortmund's style of play will also pose a serious challenge for Roma. In their previous friendly against Brighton, the Giallorossi struggled immensely to build from the back, and under the systematic pressure of the Black and Yellows—who will press with double intensity on home turf—Roma's defense is likely to crack once again. The hosts have won their last two friendly matches, and we are backing another victory for Borussia at odds of 2.15.

Total Goals Prediction: Over 3.5 Goals at 2.08

However, unlike last season, Niko Kovač's side have not looked particularly solid at the back. Dortmund have only kept a clean sheet in one pre-season game so far—against Japan's FC Tokyo (1-0). Meanwhile, Roma's pre-season matches have averaged a staggering 4.75 goals per game. Therefore, it is worth considering the over 3.5 goals market, available at 2.08.