Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The UEFA Super Cup has cemented its reputation as the nemesis of Unai Emery—the Basque manager suffered his fourth defeat in that competition. However, Aston Villa has little time to dwell on the setback. With the new season just around the corner, the club faces its final pre-season test in Mönchengladbach against the local Borussia.

Borussia: A Flawless Pre-Season

Borussia Mönchengladbach’s pre-season record is impeccable: five victories from five matches, with an aggregate scoreline of 23-3. However, it’s crucial to consider the caliber of their opponents. The vast majority of goals came against lower-league sides like Wuppertal (6-0) and Velbert (8-0). Their only meaningful challenge came against Hoffenheim, where they secured a confident 4-1 win. Despite the relatively easy schedule, the hosts enter the match against Aston Villa with considerable momentum.

This summer, Mönchengladbach offered a masterclass in financial prudence. The €20 million sale of academy graduate Rocco Reitz to Leipzig freed up funds, but the club avoided a spending spree. The arrivals of striker Isak Lidberg, defender David Herold, and free agent Yefim Konoplya cost a mere €7 million. Even after signing a few other young talents, the club’s total summer expenditure currently sits at exactly €12.5 million. Management has smartly refreshed the squad while generating a healthy profit on the transfer market.

The Foals’ squad is depleted in several positions ahead of the match. Jens Castrop is out long-term after shoulder surgery. The team’s flank depth has also taken a hit due to a knee injury for new signing Yefim Konoplya, who has yet to make his debut for the club. Additionally, defender Fabio Chiarodia and forward Tomas Chvancara are unavailable. The absence of this quartet limits the coaching staff’s options for rotation and in-game tactical adjustments.

Aston Villa: Warning Signs

Aston Villa’s pre-season results reveal a clear trend: the team loses to any opponent of substance. Birmingham has suffered defeats to Porto (1-2), Real Sociedad (2-4), and Bayern Munich (1-2). Their Super Cup loss to PSG (1-2) extended the pattern. While the English side looked more than respectable against the Parisians, the defeat felt somewhat undeserved—they posted a 15-12 advantage in shots and a 2.13 to 1.04 edge in expected goals (xG). Nevertheless, the reality is undeniable: every single test against a top-tier opponent this summer has ended in failure for Unai Emery's men.

The summer transfer window led to a noticeable drop in quality. The departures of Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans, and Donyell Malen sapped the team’s creativity, while Lucas Digne’s move left the left flank exposed. The acquisitions of young players Johan Manzambi and João Gomes don't yet feel like adequate replacements for those who left. However, Birmingham’s main asset remains on the touchline: tactical wizard Unai Emery has repeatedly proven his ability to mold a top-level, cohesive unit from almost any set of players.

After the grueling Super Cup final, Unai Emery must make do with a reduced squad. World Cup participants Emiliano Martínez, Ezri Konsa, and Ollie Watkins are still on a month-long break and will definitely miss the trip to Germany. Birmingham will also be without the injured Leon Bailey, Johan Manzambi, and Amadou Onana.

Predicted Lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach (3-4-2-1): Nicolas – Dijks, Elvedi, Ulrich – Honorat, Sander, Neuhaus, Scally – Mohia, Hack – Kleindienst

Out: Castrop, Konoplya, Chiarodia, Chvancara (all injured)

Head Coach: Eugen Polanski

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Bizot – Nedeljkovic, Mings, Torres, Maatsen – Bogarde, Kamara – Alisson, Barkley, Garnacho – Maggio

Out: Bailey, Onana, Manzambi (all injured), Martínez, Konsa, Watkins (all not in squad)

Head Coach: Unai Emery

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach to avoid defeat @ 1.61

Aston Villa enters the match in a vulnerable state. Just days ago, the Birmingham side expended maximum energy and emotion in a demanding UEFA Super Cup clash against PSG. Rotation is highly likely, and key players like Watkins and Konsa are only regaining fitness after their holidays and are not ready to play 90 minutes. Adding to the negative outlook is the fact that the English club has lost to every serious opponent they've faced this summer. In contrast, Borussia will play in front of their home crowd in what serves as their main dress rehearsal before the season begins. Mönchengladbach has been flawless this summer, winning all five friendlies, and will undoubtedly give their all to extend their successful run. Our bet is that Borussia will not lose at odds of 1.61.

Total goals prediction:

Both teams have treated their pre-season campaigns as an opportunity for open, high-scoring football. At least four goals were scored in four of Borussia’s five friendlies and in four of Aston Villa’s seven matches. The Germans are potent in attack, but consistently make mistakes in defense. Meanwhile, Birmingham has conceded in six consecutive matches, allowing at least two goals in four of those. In a clash between two attacking sides, it's logical to expect a high-scoring affair. Our pick: total over (3.5) @ 1.95.