Celje vs Ararat-Armenia: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

This is the decisive second leg for a spot in the final Champions League qualifying round. The first encounter ended with a 2-1 victory for Ararat-Armenia, yet Celje still hold a realistic chance of advancing, especially since the Armenian side have lost both of their European away fixtures this summer.

Celje: Tactical Overview

Celje’s performance in Yerevan was a mix of dominance and frustration. Under Vitor Campelos, the Slovenian team controlled possession (62%) and fired more shots (16–12), but they only managed a single goal from the penalty spot. Their overall record in the current qualifying campaign is far from impressive: they have failed to win any of their three matches in regulation time. The away game in Armenia was nevertheless an improvement compared to the trip to Albania’s Egnatia, which ended in a 3–3 draw. Back home, Celje have won just one of their three opening league matches—a 1–0 victory over Olimpija Ljubljana—and all of those fixtures were played on home soil.

For the return leg, the hosts need to score at least twice if they want to overturn the deficit, but their defensive solidity is a major concern. In all 11 summer matches, including friendlies, they have kept a clean sheet only twice. There is one forced change in the starting XI: midfielder Papa Daniel is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, so Ivan Čalušić—who is more defensively oriented—will step in. On the left side of the defence, we expect Leonardo Kuttris to start; he already provided an assist in the qualifying match against Egnatia.

Ararat-Armenia: Tactical Overview

Ararat-Armenia have been consistent in their home matches during this Champions League campaign, scoring exactly two goals in each of them. In the first leg against Celje, they made the most of their chances, converting two of their twelve shots into goals. The opener came from a stunning long-range free kick, while the second was a fast counter-attack. Previously, they had kept clean sheets at home against Riga and Shamrock Rovers (both 2–0), but this time they conceded, which changes the dynamics. In their previous two qualifying ties, they lost the away return legs by a narrow margin but still advanced. Now, a defensive approach from the first minute is less attractive.

The visitors’ strategy has not been particularly reliable away from home. After strong home wins, they quickly surrendered their advantage on the road—for instance, in Ireland and Latvia, they found themselves 0–2 down by the end of the first half, only to recover after the break and turn the tie around with character. There are no injury or suspension concerns for Ararat-Armenia, so the starting lineup is likely to be unchanged from the previous match.

Predicted Lineups

Celje (4-3-3): Leban – Širvys, Hrka, Tučiškis, Kuttris – Zabukovnik, Čalušić, Kvešić – Sešlar, Kučys, Avduli

Out: Daniel (suspended), Pišek (injured)

Head coach: Vitor Campelos

Ararat-Armenia (3-4-3): Bravim – Julio, Wilson, Malis – Oliveira, Carlier, Muradyan, Grigoryan – Serobyan, Lima, Bangaki

Out: none

Head coach: Tulipa

Referee

The match will be officiated by Italy’s Marco Guida. In recent Serie A seasons, he has become noticeably more lenient, and his European record reflects that: over his last 20 international matches, he has averaged just 2.95 yellow cards per game and 21.25 fouls, while sending off only one player in total.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Ararat-Armenia +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.58

There is little reason to believe Celje will advance in regulation time. Even against the more modest Egnatia, they failed to secure a win in the initial 90 minutes (3–3, then 1–1 before extra time). Ararat-Armenia have shown resilience in away legs, twice clawing their way back into the tie after falling behind. Campelos’ side have managed only one victory in six official matches this season (excluding the penalty shootout against Egnatia), and if friendlies are included, that number rises to just three wins out of eleven—all of them by a single goal. Therefore, the Asian handicap of +1.5 on Ararat-Armenia looks like a solid bet.

Goals prediction: Both teams to score at odds of 1.85

Celje have no major issues going forward—they have scored in every official match this season, even though they lacked precision in Yerevan. Their defence, however, is prone to errors, having kept a clean sheet in only two of their eleven summer games, including friendlies. Ararat-Armenia, for their part, have never failed to score since the preseason, and in all five of their away or neutral matches, both teams have found the net. So, backing both teams to score is a logical choice.