Celtic vs AC Milan: prediction and odds

The stage is set for an intriguing summer showdown as Ruben Amorim makes his managerial debut for AC Milan at Celtic Park, where the Rossoneri kick off their pre-season preparations against the reigning Scottish champions. The historical ledger heavily favors the Italians: these two sides have clashed 12 times, with Celtic managing just a single victory, while Milan currently ride a five-match winning streak in the fixture. This friendly serves as a final tune-up for the hosts before their domestic campaign begins in early August, while for the visitors, it marks the first real test under a new tactical philosophy.

Tactical Analysis: Celtic

Celtic’s pre-season has been a mixed bag, but context is key. After a rocky 2025/26 season that saw them snatch the title from Hearts under the returning Martin O’Neill, the Hoops have endured a demanding training regimen. Their three friendlies so far yielded draws against Shelbourne and Middlesbrough (both 1-1) and a heavy 4-1 loss to Sporting CP. However, those results are deceptive: the heavy workload has been deliberately scaled back as the squad nears peak fitness. Against Sporting, O’Neill fielded a youthful second half, leading to three conceded goals after the break—a clear sign of experimentation rather than frailty. The subsequent match against Middlesbrough saw a lineup closer to the first-choice eleven, and the team displayed a well-drilled, high-intensity performance. Expect that trend to continue against Milan.

The standout performer in these friendlies is summer signing Camilo Duran. The Colombian striker has netted in each of the last two warm-ups, making a strong case to lead the line in the upcoming season. However, Celtic will be without several key players due to post-World Cup rest: Maeda, Trusty, Johnston, Tunc, Ralston, Nygren, and Yang Hyun-jun are all unavailable. Notably, Maeda is reportedly close to a move to Ipswich and may not return to Glasgow at all. O’Neill will rely on a blend of established names and hungry youngsters to test Milan’s new system.

Tactical Analysis: Milan

Milan enter a new era under Ruben Amorim, who replaces Massimiliano Allegri after the latter failed to secure Champions League qualification in 2025/26. The shift in style is dramatic: Allegri’s pragmatic, low-block approach has been replaced by Amorim’s trademark attacking football, built on possession and high pressing. The 41-year-old Portuguese coach will look to implement a 3-4-2-1 formation, with a key role for new signing Mario Gila. The Spanish defender, acquired from Lazio, is expected to slot into the right side of the back three. A product of Real Madrid’s academy, Gila combines pace with precise ball progression—ideal for Amorim’s system.

However, the Rossoneri are far from full strength. Another new arrival, Goncalo Ramos, is still on vacation after the World Cup, joining nine other first-team regulars in absence: Maignan, Saelemaekers, De Winter, Yashari, Estupinan, Rabiot, Leao, Pulisic, and Jimenez are all out of the squad. As a result, Amorim will field a heavily experimental lineup at Celtic Park. The team has only just returned from break, and top-level cohesion is unlikely in this first summer friendly. Expect a disjointed performance as players learn the new tactical demands on the fly.

Predicted Lineups

Celtic (4-2-3-1): Sinisalo – Donovan, Carter-Vickers, Murray, Scales – Engels, Hatate – Forrest, McGregor, Balikwisha – Duran Unavailable: Johnston, Tierney, Trusty, Tunc, Ralston, Nygren, Jun, Maeda (all out of squad) Head Coach: Martin O’Neill

Milan (3-4-2-1): P. Terracciano – Gila, Odugwu, Pavlovic – Atekame, Fofana, Comotto, Bartesaghi – Chukwueze, Nkunku – Camarda Unavailable: Maignan, Saelemaekers, De Winter, Yashari, Estupinan, Rabiot, Leao, Pulisic, Jimenez, Ramos (all out of squad) Head Coach: Ruben Amorim

Prediction and Bet

Celtic’s hunger to impress on home soil against a European giant is palpable, and their chances of victory are strong. For O’Neill’s men, this match is the final dress rehearsal before the competitive season kicks off. They have already reached a high level of physical sharpness, built cohesive connections, and are ready to sustain an intense tempo for the full 90 minutes. The same cannot be said for Milan, who have only just emerged from their off-season break. Moreover, the visitors will field a lineup far from optimal—one that, in quality, may only marginally surpass the Scottish side. Backing Celtic to win at 2.55 looks compelling.

On the total goals front, a shift in style is evident. Allegri’s cautious approach has moved to Napoli, while Milan learn to play more attractive, open football. Celtic, meanwhile, have exchanged goals with opponents in every match this pre-season—a streak that now spans 10 games, including three summer friendlies, with at least four goals scored in seven of those. Therefore, the Over 3.5 goals market at 2.24 also holds appeal.