Craiova vs Levski Sofia: prediction and odds

Levski Sofia carry a slender 1-0 lead into the second leg of their Champions League qualifier against Universitatea Craiova in Romania. The Bulgarian side’s narrow victory in the first match has left the Romanian outfit facing a difficult task. After that defeat in the capital, Universitatea fielded a reserve side in their domestic league fixture, resulting in a humiliating 5-1 loss to Dinamo Bucharest. The question now looms: was that sacrifice in vain?

Tactical Analysis

Universitatea Craiova: A Mountain of Problems

Universitatea left Sofia with a 0-1 defeat and a heap of questions about their finishing. The Romanian side dominated possession (57%) and fired off 13 shots, yet only one was on target. Felipe Coelho’s team controlled the rhythm but could not turn their dominance into goals. The goal conceded in the first half has jeopardized the entire two‑legged plan.

Following the European tie, Craiova faced Dinamo Bucharest in the league and it turned into a catastrophe. Coelho opted to rest almost his entire starting eleven, deploying a reserve lineup. The result was a crushing 5-1 loss. Croatian defender Badel received a straight red card and performed so poorly that the club decided to part ways with him. The experiment backfired, and the team’s morale has taken a serious hit. Now the Romanians must overturn the deficit at home, but a key concern is to avoid being caught on the counterattack. Levski showed in the first leg that they are capable of soaking up pressure and punishing mistakes.

Levski Sofia: In Good Form

Levski accomplished their objective in the first leg, securing a 1-0 home win. Dimitrov’s goal, assisted by Serginho, came from a well‑executed counterattack. The statistics were clearly against the Bulgarians: 43% possession, 9 shots compared to 13 for the Romanians. But Levski played pragmatically, converting their only clear chance. After that, Julio Velazquez’s side ceded the ball, shut up shop, and saw the game out.

After the European match, Levski played a league game against Lokomotiv Sofia and recorded a 2-1 away victory. Velazquez’s team fell behind first but turned the game around: Delev equalized, and Reinaldo scored the winner. The Brazilian continues to pick up points in official matches and heads into the return leg in excellent form. Unlike their opponents, the visitors did not rest players before the second leg. The coaching staff believes the players have hit a good run and do not want to disrupt the starters’ momentum. Levski travel to Romania with a comfortable advantage and a settled rhythm. The only downside is the injury to veteran Kirilov, who had 32 appearances and 7 goal contributions last season. His experience would have been useful against the Romanians, but squad depth means there is no need for alarm.

Predicted Lineups

Universitatea Craiova (5-2-1-2): Popescu – Mora, Romanczuk, Rus, Srescu, Bancu – Cicaldau, Mekabishvili – Ettim – Bayram, Elisor

Out: Al‑Hamlawi, Ischenko (both injured)

Head coach: Felipe Coelho

Levski Sofia (4-4-2): Vutsov – Neves, Dimitrov, Serafimov, Maicon – Burosh, Serginho, Trdin, Reinaldo – Bala, Oko‑Flex

Out: Perea, Kirilov, Mitkov, Mubarik, Kemdem, Vulićić (all injured)

Head coach: Julio Velazquez

Referee: Matteo Marcenaro (Italy)

This season, Marcenaro has officiated 12 matches in the Italian top flight. His average yellow‑card count per game is 4.08, and the foul rate is moderate at 25.2 per game. In European competitions, his statistics are similar: 3.5 yellow cards and 22.5 fouls per match in Champions League and Conference League qualifiers. The referee does not wave cards around, allows the game to flow, and keeps control without unnecessary whistles.

Prediction and Bet

Main Bet: Levski will not lose (odds 1.95)

The result of the first leg puts Universitatea in an awkward position: they must push forward, but Levski is at their most effective in exactly these situations. Velazquez has built a side that feels comfortable playing on the counter: in Sofia, the Bulgarians had less possession (43%) but put more shots on target and secured the victory. The second leg is likely to follow a similar pattern—the hosts will be forced to open up, and the visitors will have space to launch counterattacks. Furthermore, the negative psychological backdrop after two straight defeats undermines the Romanians’ confidence. In such conditions, the Bulgarians should at least avoid defeat. The pick: Levski to win or draw (1X) at 1.95.

Goal Bet: Both teams to score – Yes (odds 1.85)

The scenario for the second leg is largely dictated by the first‑leg result. Universitatea must play on the front foot and apply pressure. At home, with crowd support, chances at the visitors’ goal are likely. However, Levski under Velazquez have well‑drilled transition phases: they defend compactly and can spring quickly into attack through open spaces. In the first game, the Bulgarians converted one of their few chances – a tactic that could work again. The Romanian defence does not look flawless, so an exchange of goals seems the most logical outcome. The bet: Both teams to score – Yes at 1.85.