Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC de Cajamarca: prediction and odds

The hosts welcome an opponent that has developed a strong habit of drawing matches recently. Based on their latest results, neither team looks particularly stable, and the nature of their games often leads to cautious, low-scoring affairs without any routs.

Tactical Analysis of Deportivo Garcilaso

Deportivo Garcilaso’s recent form reads as 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, and the feeling is that their performances have taken a downturn. The team lost away to Sporting Cristal 0-1, managing just 3 shots and none on target, while allowing their opponent 17 shots with 7 on goal. There have also been more tightly contested matches: a 0-0 draw with Cusco and another 0-0 against Moquegua (in regular time). In those games, the hosts did not offer much going forward but kept the scoreboard clean. The only real goal-scoring outburst in this sample was a 4-1 home win over Deportivo Binacional, yet even in that match, Garcilaso did not dominate in terms of shots (8 against 14). Overall, based on available statistics, Deportivo Garcilaso often plays with discipline and patience, and the outcome heavily depends on whether they can score first.

Tactical Analysis of UT de Cajamarca

UT de Cajamarca’s recent record shows 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss — the team rarely loses but also rarely manages to turn matches into victories. In their last 4 games, the scoreline was 1-1 three times and 2-2 once: against Alianza Atlético (1-1), Alianza Lima (1-1), Deportivo Llacuabamba (1-1), and Juan Pablo II (2-2). The 2-2 draw is particularly revealing statistically: UT de Cajamarca had 11 shots (6 on target) and created 1 big chance, but they allowed the opponent 15 shots with 5 on goal. There is also a 1-3 defeat where they looked decent in terms of shots on target (9), but still lost the match on the scoreboard. In summary, the visitors appear to be a team that stays competitive, scores regularly, but never closes out matches without some anxiety at the back.

Predicted Lineups

Deportivo Garcilaso:

• Goalkeeper: Penny
• Defenders: Lojas, Rojas, Neyra, Ramos
• Midfielders: Aubert, Ramírez, Ugarriza
• Forwards: Carando, Rivera, Erustes

UT de Cajamarca:

• Goalkeeper: Zubczuk
• Defenders: Acosta, Gutiérrez, Kuncho, Perleche
• Midfielders: Valoyes, Vásquez, Rojas
• Forwards: Guevara, Takeuchi, Peralta

Referee

The match will be officiated by referee Michael Espinoza.

Statistics and Trends

Deportivo Garcilaso have a strong home trend regarding results: they have not lost 9 of their last 10 home games, and separately, they have recorded 5 consecutive home wins in terms of goals scored. However, in terms of goals, the hosts show restraint: Deportivo Garcilaso’s individual total under 1.5 has landed in 15 of 20 matches, and the total under 3.5 has hit in 16 of 20 home games. For opponents playing away, the trend of an individual total under 1.5 has occurred in 8 of 10 matches. The head-to-head meeting in 2026 ended 1-1, which fits well with UT de Cajamarca’s current run of draws.

Prediction and Bet

This match should be a tight contest: Deportivo Garcilaso rely on results at home and usually do not allow the opponent to build a goal-scoring game, while UT de Cajamarca consistently cling to draws over the long haul but do not look like a team that regularly scores 2 or more goals. Moreover, the hosts have not shown a powerful attack in terms of shots and shots on target in recent games, so betting on a high total seems excessive. The main prediction is: total under (3) at odds of 1.40.