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Derry City vs CSKA Sofia: prediction and odds

Europe Europa League · Europe · 16 July 2026
Derry City logoDerry City
1:2
1st half: 0:0
16.07.2026 18:30
CSKA Sofia logoCSKA Sofia

Match events

46′
🟨Angelo Martino
ellis chapman1:0
47′
62′
1:1Ioannis Pittas
63′
🟨Teodor·Valentinov Ivanov
Ciaran Grogan🟨
67′
82′
🟨Rodriguez, Juan
90′
🟨Stefano Sensi
90+4′
1:2Barry Cotter

Match statistics: Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

Derry CityCSKA Sofia
44Ball possession, %56
6Shots10
2Shots on target4
11Corners6
13Fouls17
1Offsides2
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
80Attacks100
58Dangerous attacks64

💡 Match preview Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

The first leg between Derry City and CSKA Sofia was a full-throttle attacking affair, treating fans to five goals. The Bulgarian side secured a narrow 3–2 win, but that slender advantage is anything but a guarantee of progression. With the return leg on home soil, the Northern Irish hosts face a do-or-die situation: only a victory will keep their European hopes alive. Will they throw caution to the wind from the opening whistle?

Derry City: A Team in Turmoil

Derry City stuck to their familiar two-striker setup in the first leg, but the forwards were forced to spend more time tracking back than putting pressure on the opposition. Despite that, Ruaidhrí Lynch’s side managed to find the net twice—though those goals owed more to the Bulgarian defence’s lapses in concentration than to any creative brilliance in attack. Both goals stemmed from defensive errors by CSKA, and the outcome could have been different if goalkeeper Brian Maher had reacted better to shots from Pittas and Jordão in the first half.

The defeat fits neatly into Derry’s current form slump. The team is clearly on a downward spiral. In their last five matches across all competitions, including European fixtures, Lynch’s men have managed only one win—a 2–0 victory over bottom‑half league side Drogheda. Worse, they were outplayed in a 4–2 loss to relegation‑threatened Waterford. The pressure is mounting on the coaching staff, as this poor run has knocked Derry out of contention for European qualification spots domestically.

CSKA Sofia: Defensive Frailties Exposed

Bulgarian side CSKA Sofia have only themselves to blame for making the second leg harder than it needed to be. Conceding two goals to a supposedly weaker opponent was a self-inflicted wound. The centre‑back pairing of Ivanov and Rodríguez frequently lost their positions, which is why the inclusion of new signing Jean‑Philippe Gbamen in the squad is a crucial step to shore up the defence ahead of the return leg. The club has confirmed that all documents have been submitted to UEFA, and the team is awaiting a decision on his eligibility.

On the pitch, CSKA were the superior side in the first meeting. They dominated possession (64%) and rained 17 shots on Maher’s goal. Credit must go to the club’s work in the transfer market to strengthen the attack: Pittas bagged a brace, while Sensi registered an assist. In pre‑season friendlies, Hristo Yanev’s team reaffirmed their commitment to attacking football. Over four matches, the Bulgarian side scored eight goals against second‑division opponents: Czech side Marek (3‑0), Polish side Odra (3‑0), and Slovenian First League side Brinje (2‑1). There was one heavy defeat—a 4‑0 loss to Ukrainian side Polissya Zhytomyr—but three of those goals came after the break, when Yanev had sent on his reserves.

Referee: Jasmin Sabotic (Luxembourg)

In last season’s European competitions, Sabotic officiated two UEFA Europa League matches. He referees strictly, averaging 4.5 yellow cards per game, with one red card and one penalty awarded. The Luxembourgish official also records a high number of fouls—29 per match in European ties, and slightly more (31.33) in his domestic league.

Prediction and Bet

The Bulgarian side is unlikely to abandon their attacking style even in an away European tie. The visitors’ defensive reliability remains a concern—as the first leg showed, they can gift opponents a goal without the opposition needing to exert extraordinary effort. Overall, Yanev’s men boast superior quality, which will allow them to exploit the spaces left by a Derry side that must chase a one‑goal deficit. The hosts are in poor form, conceding heavily, making a CSKA victory highly probable.

Main bet: Victory for CSKA Sofia at odds of 2.04.

Total goals bet: The pre‑match scenario forces the hosts to push forward in search of an equaliser. This plays into the hands of the Bulgarian side, who thrive in open games where their attacking players can exploit free spaces. In the new season (including friendlies), Yanev’s team average two goals per match, so backing over 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.84 is a solid option.

Match odds Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

Result (1X2)

X3.813.3222.04

Double chance

1X1.78X21.33121.26

Both teams to score

No1.98Yes1.72

Over

11.0121.4232.5545.31.51.252.51.93.53.164.56

Under

18.922.6431.4441.11.53.42.51.93.51.294.51.08

Handicap 1

02.4311.3221.04-15.751.51.212.51.03-1.56.7

Handicap 2

01.5211.07-12.88-26.91.51.05-1.53.58-2.57.6

Correct score

0:013.250:170:29.50:318.50:4461:09.51:16.51:27.91:316.251:4412:0172:110.752:2142:3263:0413:1293:234

To qualify

14.521.17

Predictions for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

SO Sani Okonkwo Double chance: 1Xodds 2.00 Lost

I'm confident that British teams will perform strongly at home, as they consistently leverage home advantage with disciplined play and crowd support. This pattern is reliable, so backing them in domestic matches is a solid bet.

BI Blessing Ibe Result: 1odds 3.95 Lost

I'm predicting that the Bulgarian team will lose away from home today. Their recent form on the road has been shaky, and they're facing a strong opponent that consistently dominates at their own ground. The odds and match dynamics simply don't favor an upset here.

JO Joseph Oladipo Correct score 1:1odds 6.90 Lost

I'm betting on a 1-1 draw between Derry City and CSKA Sofia. Both teams are evenly matched defensively, and I expect a tight contest where neither side can break the deadlock completely. The first half will likely be cautious, with one goal each in the second half, ending in a share of the spoils.

TB Temitope Bello Result: 2odds 1.91 Won

I’m backing the away team to win here — they’re simply the stronger side. We’ll watch and see how it plays out, but that’s my call.

CI Collins Ibe Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.67 Lost

I predict Derry will step up and score a couple of goals in the match. They have the attacking quality to make that happen.

TF Temitope Fashola Result: 2odds 1.89 Won

I'm confident CSKA will deliver. Their recent form speaks for itself—they're simply good, and that's all the reasoning I need to back them.

TO Titi Olaniyan Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.78 Lost

I expect the home team to score at least twice, just as they did away. They've already proven they can find the net on the road, so there's no reason they can't replicate that performance in front of their own fans.

UW Usman Waziri Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.61 Won

I'm confident we'll see both teams find the net in this match. The history between these sides consistently produces goals at both ends, and the current form and attacking setups only reinforce that pattern. Expect an open, back-and-forth contest where defenses take a back seat.

Given the attacking quality on display and the defensive vulnerabilities each side has shown, backing both teams to score is the clear play here. It's a trend that's held up time and again in this fixture, and I see no reason for that to change now.

AO Aisha Okoro Over 3.5odds 2.63 Lost

I'm confident that this match will be high-scoring. Both teams have the attacking firepower to break through, and defensive lapses are likely on both sides. Expect plenty of goals.

ZA Zainab Abdullahi Over 2.5odds 1.72 Won

I expect another open game here. Both teams showed attacking football in the first match, but Bulgaria looked stronger and could have won by a bigger margin. Northern Ireland will have to push forward, which should lead to more chances for both sides. I'm confident we'll see goals again.

AE Adewale Eze Corners: Team 1 over 5odds 2.00 Won

I expect Derry City to take at least five corners in this match. CSKA Sofia is not superior to Derry’s domestic opponents, and the Irish side averages over five corners at home even against strong teams. The first leg was high-scoring with many corners, and now CSKA will try to protect their one-goal lead, but Derry will attack relentlessly. Even if they equalize the tie, they’ll keep pushing for a two-goal win. This outcome is highly likely, with a minimum of a push.

AS Adaeze Sowole Result: 1odds 3.88 Lost

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FL Folake Lamido Result: 2odds 1.85 Won

I predict the Bulgarian army team from the capital will win in Ireland. They will stick to a strict defensive strategy and capitalize on counterattacks.

AO Aliyu Oladipo Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.85 Won

I expect the hosts to push hard for a comeback, launching plenty of attacks, but the visitors won't sit back and defend. This game will be played on the counter, with both sides trading blows in an open, end-to-end affair.

AB Amara Bello Over 2.5odds 1.71 Won

I’m backing over 2.5 goals in Derry City vs CSKA Sofia. Both teams have shown they can find the net, and with the stakes high in this European qualifier, I expect an open, attacking game. Derry will push forward at home, but CSKA Sofia’s experience and counter-attacking threat should create enough chances to push the total over the line. The odds of 1.71 offer solid value for a bet that aligns with the likely flow of the match.

KS Kayode Sani Result: 2odds 1.86 Won

I am confident that CSKA will win this match. Their recent form has been strong, and they consistently outperform their opponents in both possession and scoring chances. The team's defensive discipline and clinical finishing give them a clear edge in this matchup.

There are no doubts here—CSKA's squad depth and tactical preparation are superior. I expect them to control the game from start to finish and secure a decisive victory.

CO Collins Ojo Result: Xodds 3.86 Lost

I predict a draw between Derry City and CSKA Sofia. Both teams are closely matched in form and defensive solidity, making a stalemate the most likely outcome. History shows these sides struggle to break each other down, and I'm confident neither will secure a win here.

AA Amina Adewale Result: 1odds 3.88 Lost

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CM Comfort Mohammed Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.85 Won

I expect at least 10 corner kicks in this game. The first match had plenty, and I'm confident we'll see the same again.

PB Patience Balogun Result: 2odds 1.86 Won

The visiting team will win this match. Their away form has been consistently strong, and they match up well against the home side's tactical weaknesses. I see clear value in backing them to secure all three points.

IO Ifeanyi Okonkwo Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.85 Won

I'm confident today's match will be just as entertaining as the first one—expect plenty of chances and exciting football.

SO Suleiman Obi Over 3.5odds 2.63 Lost

Based on the first meeting, I'm confident the second will deliver similarly strong results. The level of productivity we saw sets a clear benchmark, and I expect this trend to continue.

OA Oluwaseun Abdullahi Team 2 over 1.5odds 1.80 Won

I believe the Bulgarian club is head and shoulders above its opponents. I confidently expect them to score two goals.

SI Samuel Ibe Result: Xodds 3.85 Lost

I'm forecasting that a draw will be enough for CSKA. My reasoning is straightforward: they're playing at home with strong defensive form, and their opponent lacks the attacking firepower to break them down. A single point keeps them in a comfortable position, so I expect them to prioritize not losing over chasing a risky win. This match is set up for a stalemate.

WY Wale Yusuf Over 2.5odds 1.72 Won

I am confident the Bulgarian club will thrive in an open game. Their attackers are at their best when given space to operate, and they'll find plenty of it here.

SO Sani Obiora Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.93 Won

I’m confident both teams will find the net in the second half today. The match is set up for an open, attacking second period—both sides have shown they can push forward after the break, and defensive lapses tend to increase as fatigue sets in. With the scoreline likely still tight at halftime, the pressure to score will drive action from both benches. I see a strong chance of at least one goal for each team in the final 45 minutes.

TB Tunde Balogun Over 3.5odds 2.66 Lost

I expect a high-scoring game from both teams—each side should find the net.

GO Gift Oladipo Result: 2odds 1.87 Won

I'm betting on CSKA Sofia to win this match. They have the quality and form to secure the victory.

EO Esther Olawale Result: 2odds 1.83 Won

I am confident that they will pull through on counterattacks. Their speed and discipline on the break will be the deciding factor, allowing them to exploit gaps and secure the victory.

VI Victoria Idris Under 2.5odds 2.00 Lost

I'm predicting the under for this match. After an extremely high-scoring first game, the market is overcorrecting, but I see a tactical adjustment coming—both teams will tighten up defensively to avoid another shootout. The data and recent head-to-head patterns back a lower-scoring affair this time around. The under is the sharp play here.

IO Ibrahim Okoro Result: 2odds 1.83 Won

I'm confident the guests will win. They are simply the stronger side, and that's the decisive factor here.

MA Maryam Amadi Result: 2odds 1.83 Won

I’m betting that Bulgaria will come out stronger in this matchup. Their recent form and depth in key positions give them a clear edge over the opposition. I expect them to control the game and secure a win.

DF Deborah Fashola Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.72 Won

I predict both teams will score in this match. The statistics overwhelmingly support this outcome, consistent with their recent form and head-to-head trends.

BA Babatunde Adamu Result: 1odds 4.00 Lost

I am confident that Derry will knock out the army team. Their recent form and home advantage give them a clear edge, and I expect them to dominate from start to finish. The opposition lacks the firepower to keep up, making a Derry victory a near certainty.

RL Ronke Lamido Over 2odds 1.39 Won

The first leg ended with five goals, so Derry needs to score to equalize and push it to extra time—ideally two to advance directly. If Derry finds the net, CSKA will have to respond, so I expect them to score as well. I'm also backing both teams to score. That makes this the most reliable bet.

YO Yetunde Olawale Team 1 over 1odds 2.04 Void

Derry City will score at least once at home. They're strong in attack at the Brandywell Stadium, and their home form supports this confidently.

GA Gabriel Adewale Corners: Team 1 over 4.5odds 1.72 Won

Derry earned 5 corners away, so I expect them to repeat that at home.

ME Mercy Eze Result: 2odds 1.83 Won

I’m betting that CSKA Sofia will win away. Their recent form has been strong on the road, and I see no reason why that momentum won’t carry over into this match. The odds fully support my confidence here.

SA Samuel Adebayo Over 2.5odds 1.84 Won

I'm betting on over 2.5 goals in the match between Derry and CSKA Sofia. Both teams have shown attacking intent in recent games, and defensive gaps on both sides should lead to scoring opportunities. The stakes are high, and I expect an open, end-to-end contest that

AO Ayodele Olawale Under 2.5odds 1.96 Lost

I'm confident CSKA will tighten up their defense on the road and secure the result they need. Their away form shows they can stay disciplined at the back when it matters most.

JA John Akintola Result: 2odds 2.04 Won

I'm backing CSKA Sofia to beat Derry City without a doubt. Their squad depth and recent run of form give them the clear edge here, so the win is going through.

RO Ronke Olaniyan Result: 1odds 3.32 Pending

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DO Daniel Onyeka Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.86 Lost

I believe CSKA will try to slow the game down, but it won't work. Their attempts to dry out the pace will backfire.

JG John Garba Over 2.5odds 1.90 Won

I'm confident there will be plenty of goals in the return match again. CSKA Sofia will advance to the next round.

SL Segun Lamido Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.72 Won

I'm confident both teams will score. The attacking quality on display, combined with defensive vulnerabilities, makes this a straightforward call—goals are coming from both sides.

SO Sunday Ojo To qualify: 2odds 1.17 Won

I predict Sofia will pass. It’s a beautiful name, by the way. My confidence is based on her consistent track record and the alignment of current conditions with past successes. There’s no reason to doubt a positive outcome here.

GA Gabriel Adebayo Handicap 2 (0)odds 1.52 Won

Derry put up a fight in Bulgaria, but I knew CSKA were the stronger side. The second goal was lucky for the hosts, but that didn't change the outcome—my call was right.

CS Collins Shehu Handicap 2 (0)odds 1.52 Won

I confidently predict that the Bulgarian club will win this match. They are clearly the stronger team, and their 3-2 home victory was no fluke—it was a deserved result that reflects their superior class. Expect them to secure another win here.

Match poster

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia — odds