Derry City vs Rijeka: prediction and odds

Derry City faced an incredibly tough first leg in the quarter-finals of the Conference League qualifiers. The Northern Irish side narrowly avoided a heavy defeat, but they looked significantly worse than their opponents in every department. The return leg might be slightly easier to play, but containing Rijeka remains a difficult task. The Croats are in excellent form and are fully capable of defeating their opponent once again.

Derry City: A Defence Under Siege

The Northern Irish team, managed by Tiernan Lynch, is substantially inferior to the Croats in terms of class and squad value (€4.1 million compared to Rijeka’s €34.1 million). The first match clearly highlighted this disparity: Derry City spent almost the entire game in a deep defensive block, possessed the ball for only 29% of the playing time, and managed just four shots towards the opponent’s goal (only one on target). Interestingly, the Northern Irish side did not play as poorly in their Europa League qualifiers against CSKA Sofia. In those matches, the team suffered defeats in both legs (2:3, 1:2), but they were quite active in front of the opposition's goal. However, Derry City’s game was completely neutralised by the robust Croatian side, who managed to adapt to the Northern Irish style. We do not expect a significant change in the situation for the return fixture.

Rijeka: Total Dominance and Excellent Form

The Croatian club, led by Matjaž Kek, demonstrated overwhelming dominance in the first leg. Rijeka controlled 71% of the possession, attempted 19 shots on goal, and took 13 corners, completely pinning the visitors in their own half. They failed to build a large lead, so the team will look to confidently manage the return match as well. It is worth noting that the club actively prepared for the season with friendly matches. They won four pre-season games against relatively weak opponents. In their encounters with Grosuplje (3:0) and Radomlje (2:0), they showed they are capable of creating and converting numerous chances in front of the opposition's goal.

Referee: João António Ferreira Gonçalves (Portugal)

In the 2025/2026 season, the referee has officiated 34 matches at all levels and has demonstrated a very strict style of refereeing. On average per game, he has shown 4.68 yellow cards, 0.62 red cards, and recorded 24.09 fouls, while awarding a penalty on average in every third match (0.35 per game).

Prediction and Bet

Prediction on the match Derry City – Rijeka: Rijeka to win at odds of 1.68

The main justification for this selection is the results of the first leg and the enormous gap in class. Rijeka completely controlled the flow of the match (71% possession, 19 shots on goal, and 13 corners), barely allowing their opponents to cross the halfway line. We also note that the Croatian club is in excellent form, having won four recent friendly matches. Derry City is inconsistent and has suffered four defeats in their last five matches across all competitions. The visitors are capable of securing another victory based on class. We choose the outcome: Rijeka to win at 1.68. We assess the probability of this outcome at 61% (anything above 1.60 is playable).

Prediction on totals: Over (2.5) goals at odds of 1.95

The Northern Irish side will, one way or another, have to come up with something to overturn the deficit. They cannot simply shut up shop in their own box again and rely on rare counter-attacks. It is worth noting that the Over (2.5) goals line has hit in four of Derry City’s last five matches across all competitions, so the team is generally playing in an open manner at the moment. Rijeka has defended solidly in their last three encounters, but they previously thrashed Grosuplje (3:0) and defeated Bravo (2:1). We believe that in this match, the visitors are quite capable of creating and converting a relatively high number of chances. We are expecting a high-scoring match this time. We choose the outcome: Total Over (2.5) goals at 1.95. We assess the probability of this outcome hitting at 56% (anything above 1.82 is playable).