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Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun: prediction and odds

Europe Champions League · Europe · 28 July 2026
Dinamo Zagreb logoDinamo Zagreb
vs
28.07.2026 19:00
Thun logoThun

💡 Match preview Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun

Dynamo Zagreb vs. Thun: Can the Swiss Champions Stun the Croatian Giants Again?

Dinamo Zagreb entered this Champions League qualifying tie as the heavy favorites, a seasoned European campaigner against a Swiss side perceived as a lesser light. Yet, the first leg in Switzerland ended in a 1-1 draw, a result that proved pedigree and a star-studded lineup are not always enough to guarantee safe passage. Now, the "Blues" return to the Maksimir Stadium needing a win. The question is: can Thun spring yet another surprise on the road?

Tactical Analysis: Dinamo Zagreb’s Creative Void

As expected, Dinamo dominated possession and pushed forward aggressively in the first leg, registering 20 shots, 12 of which came from inside the penalty area. One might blame poor finishing for the single goal, but the stats tell a more nuanced story. Only six of those attempts were on target, and the team accumulated a mere 1.27 xG (Expected Goals). For a team that scored 16 goals in three summer friendlies against Slovenian opposition, this was a surprisingly toothless performance.

The primary reason is the absence of Luka Stojković, the team's most creative and decisive attacking midfielder. Last season, he racked up an impressive 13 goals and 12 assists in 42 appearances across all competitions. Like a week ago, he will miss the return leg due to suspension. In his place, Gabriël Vidović has been deployed in the central role, but this is a square peg in a round hole. In the last calendar year, 10 of his 13 goal contributions came while playing as a left winger. He is unlikely to get that position now, as club legend Milan Oršić (217 appearances for the club) has returned to his flank over the summer. Huge hopes are pinned on the Croatian for this European tie, especially after he recorded 3 goals and 3 assists in the last Champions League campaign for Pafos, including a goal against Bayern Munich.

Tactical Analysis: Thun’s Flying Start to the Season

Thun underwent a major transition over the summer, losing their head coach, Mauro Lustrinelli—the architect of their championship-winning season—as well as key players Elmin Rastoder and Franz-Ethan Meichtry, who were sold for record fees. Despite failing to bring in direct replacements of equal quality, new boss Gian-Luca Privitelli has got his team off to a flying start. They secured a solid result in the first Champions League leg and then thrashed Luzern 3-1 in the opening round of the Swiss Super League.

Thun plays an open, expansive brand of football. In the first match against Dinamo, they did not simply sit back and defend. Despite a modest xG of 0.92, they actually created more clear-cut chances (2:1) than their more illustrious opponents. In the Super League opener, their clinical finishing continued (1.92 xG), but they were alarmingly open at the back, allowing a massive 2.53 xGA (Expected Goals Against). They were fortunate that Luzern lacked the finishing quality to punish them. In Zagreb, Privitelli’s side will likely be more conservative, but they will certainly not abandon their counter-attacking threats.

Predicted Lineups

Dinamo Zagreb (4-2-3-1): Filipović – Valinčić, Domingues, McKenna, Goda – Mišić, Zajc – Lisica, Vidović, Oršić – Beljo

Out: Stojković (suspension)

Head Coach: Mario Kovačević

Thun (4-4-2): Steffen – Dähler, Bürgi, Bamert, Balaruban – Maier, Zukit, Saïs, Derbaci – Gutbub, Stewart

Out: Montolio, Keita (both injured)

Head Coach: Gian-Luca Privitelli

Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov (Bulgaria)

The Bulgarian referee is known for a strict, no-nonsense approach to officiating, regardless of the competition's level. In his sole Champions League game, he issued six yellow cards. Across all European competitions, he averages a stern 4.6 cards per game, and in just 10 matches, he has sent off three players. In his domestic league, his average climbs to 5.03 yellow cards per match. Expect a tightly officiated game with little tolerance for cynical fouls.

Prediction and Bet

Main Bet: Thun +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73

Last season, Thun won the Swiss league with the seventh-highest budget, proving they are masters at exceeding expectations. While Dinamo Zagreb remains the favorite to advance, a comfortable stroll is highly unlikely. Looking at Dinamo's previous two Champions League qualifiers, things were either a breeze (a 5-0 aggregate win over Qarabag) or a nightmare (a narrow defeat and a draw against AEK Athens). Last week, the Croatian champions had no issue reaching Thun’s final third but created very few genuine dangers. While playing at home should help, Thun is remarkably consistent regardless of venue. Last season, they collected 38 points at home and 37 away, and they started the new campaign with a comfortable two-goal away victory. This looks like a great opportunity for a +1.5 handicap on the visitors.

Total Goals Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 2.00

Both sides have shown excellent finishing ability in their recent matches. In the first leg, the combined xG was just 2.19, yet they still scored two goals, while Dinamo was prolific in pre-season. Thun has traded goals with opponents in every match under Privitelli, and their 1.92 xG against Luzern resulted in three goals. The Swiss side are not accustomed to parking the bus, making it very difficult for them to keep a clean sheet. This means they will likely be forced to hunt for chances on the counter-attack in order to keep their hopes alive. A bet on both teams to find the back of the net seems like a solid wager.

Probable lineups: Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun

Dinamo Zagreb logoDinamo Zagreb4-2-3-1
Filipovich
GodaMakkennaDomingesValinchich
ZaytsMishich
OršićVidovichLisitsa
Bele
Out of squad:Stoykovich · Suspended
Thun logoThun4-4-2
Shteffen
BalarubanBamerByurgiDeler
DerbachiSaysZukitMayer
GutbubStyuart
Out of squad:Montolio · InjuryKyayt · Injury

Match odds Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun

Result (1X2)

X5.111.3727.7

Double chance

1X1.08X23.08121.16

Both teams to score

No1.86Yes1.82

Over

21.2331.9443.6857.61.51.152.51.613.52.414.54.335.58.4

Under

23.731.7741.2151.041.54.52.52.313.51.474.51.155.51.02

Handicap 1

01.08-11.53-22.8-35.9-1.52.04-2.53.44-3.56.7

Handicap 2

05.5512.2521.3531.071.51.732.51.233.51.05

Correct score

0:017.750:120.50:2481:07.21:18.81:2222:06.72:17.72:2183:08.93:110.753:2244:015.54:118.754:2435:0335:141

Predictions for Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun

FB Funke Bello Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.81 Pending

I expect both teams to score. Croatia, despite their higher status, haven't been playing their best, which leaves them vulnerable at the back. Given that, a back-and-forth match with goals on both sides looks like the most likely outcome.

YS Yemi Suleiman Team 2 over 0.5odds 1.64 Pending

I'm betting that the Swiss will pass this one with minimal issues. The reasoning is straightforward: their track record shows consistent, low-drama outcomes in similar situations. If things go as smoothly as expected, this bet should hit with ease.

TB Temitope Bello Handicap 2 (1.5)odds 1.76 Pending

I believe the visitors won't lose by a large margin, if at all. We'll see how it plays out soon enough.

AN Ayodele Nwosu Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.93 Pending

Both Dynamo and Thun are strong in attack, so I expect a high number of corners in this match. The game should be open and end-to-end, with plenty of chances from wide areas.

SN Samuel Nnaji Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.02 Pending

I'm taking Zagreb on the handicap. They'll win convincingly.

AO Adewale Oladipo Result: 1odds 1.36 Pending

I'm backing Dinamo Zagreb to win here. They have the quality and motivation to get the job done, and I expect them to push for victory from the start. Their attacking strength should be enough to break through the opposition and secure all three points.

KO Kelechi Okafor Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.93 Pending

I'm confident that Dynamo will consistently generate 9–14 corners, and Thun is also capable of adding 6–10 of their own. That combination makes a high total corner count a solid bet.

AB Ayodele Balogun Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.82 Pending

I'm confident Dynamo will win this return match as the clear favorite, but Thun is going to find the net.

HA Hauwa Adeyemi Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.93 Pending

I’m confident that Tune will hold their own against the favorite, matching them in possession and sharpness on the counterattack. There’s no reason to expect a drop-off in performance—they’ll stay competitive and create real threats.

MA Musa Akintola Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.04 Pending

I'm confident Dinamo Zagreb will cover the -1.5 handicap. They have the quality and home advantage to win by at least two goals.

AO Amara Olaniyan To qualify: 1odds 1.15 Pending

I’m confidently predicting that Tuntun Sahur will win. The momentum and consistency they’ve shown recently make them the clear frontrunner in this matchup.

GA Gloria Anyanwu Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.04 Pending

I'm confident the Croatians will bounce back strongly at home. They've always been reliable in qualifying for the Champions League, so the slip in Switzerland will serve as a clear lesson. Expect them to take full responsibility and play with greater focus now.

FO Fatima Ojo Handicap 2 (1.5)odds 1.73 Pending

I expect another tightly contested match here, and I'm confident Thun will not lose by more than one goal. The team has shown resilience in similar situations, and I believe they'll keep the deficit within that margin.

MA Musa Amadi Under 4odds 1.22 Pending

I predict that the total goals in this match will be exactly three, not four or more. Three goals feel like a natural ceiling here—both sides have disciplined defenses and lack the high-octane attack needed to push the score higher. Considering the pace and previous form, the likelihood of four or more goals is minimal.

VO Victoria Onyeka Team 2 over 0.5odds 1.65 Pending

Tun is a solid goalscorer too. He should be good for at least one goal here.

GA Gabriel Ademola Team 2 over 0.5odds 1.65 Pending

I predict this outcome with confidence. My reasoning is straightforward and based on the key factors at play.

PW Precious Waziri Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.82 Pending

I believe both teams will score in this match. These are attacking sides that consistently find the net, so goals at both ends are inevitable.

SI Sani Ibe Team 1 over 2.5odds 2.33 Pending

I didn't watch the first match, but I'm honestly surprised Zagreb didn't win. Based on their performance, they deserved to take it. I'm confident they'll get the victory next time.

AA Adewale Abubakar Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.02 Pending

I am making this forecast. I offer no explanation for it—my confidence stands on its own.

GA Gift Afolabi Corners: Over 10.5odds 2.41 Pending

I'm confident about the corners here. They'll reach the required total, and the final score will be either 2-0 or 4-2.

DA Daniel Adamu Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.83 Pending

I’m backing the hosts to win, with both teams finding the net. The home side has the edge in quality and form, and their attack should be too much for the visitors to handle. However, the away team are capable of scoring, so I expect an open game where both sides get on the scoresheet. A home victory with goals at both ends is the most likely outcome here.

BA Babatunde Afolabi Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.02 Pending

I'm backing the home team to win today. They have what it takes to secure the victory.

SA Sani Adewale Under 3odds 1.77 Pending

The first leg ended 1-1, so Thun will play ultra-defensively to avoid conceding that decisive away goal. With so much on the line, both teams will minimize risk, making this a tight, defensive affair. I'm going against the crowd here—while many expect goals, I'm betting on under. My confidence is 73%.

FO Funke Ogunleye Over 3odds 1.94 Pending

I'm predicting the Over on goals for Dinamo Zagreb. Playing at home, they should show their attacking intent and find the back of the net. The match setup favors them to push forward, making the total goals line a solid bet.

JK Joseph Kalu Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.83 Pending

Both teams will score. The data clearly points to goals in this matchup, with both sides showing consistent attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. I'm confident in this outcome.

UL Usman Lawal Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.02 Pending

Dynamo is the stronger team, and playing at home, they should secure a confident win today.

GO Gift Ojo Team 2 over 1odds 2.95 Pending

I expect many goals here because Thun are playing efficiently and creating chances. Their attacking form makes over 2.5 goals the clear call.

WE Wale Ekwueme Corners: Over 10.5odds 2.41 Pending

I'm confident the second game will see at least 14 corner kicks, just like the first. The attacking play and pressure from both sides are consistent, and the match conditions remain favorable for set-piece opportunities. There's no reason to expect a drop in corner count.

YN Yemi Nwachukwu Result: 1odds 1.37 Pending

I’m predicting a win for Dynamo here. The home advantage and their superior class give them a clear edge in this matchup.

BL Biodun Lawal Double chance: 1Xodds 1.08 Pending

I'm betting the hosts won't lose. Their strong home record and recent form give me confidence they'll at least secure a draw.

CS Chinedu Sowole Correct score 2:1odds 7.80 Pending

I'm back with another Champions League prediction, this time for Dinamo Zagreb vs. Thun on July 28 at 21:00 Moscow time. This match is set to be a fiery and exciting decider. Dinamo are the clear favorites here—they've won three of their last five friendlies, including dominant wins over Radomlje, Grosuplje, and Koper, with only a goalless draw against LNZ as a blemish. The first leg ended 1-1, but that result didn't reflect the game's reality; now at home, Dinamo will assert their dominance.

Thun are no Swiss powerhouse, and their defense has looked shaky in friendlies—just one win, one draw, and one loss in three matches. Their recent league win over Luzern doesn't change the fact that they're stepping up in class. I'm confident Dinamo will secure a 2-1 victory and advance to the next round.

SA Suleiman Ademola Under 3.5odds 1.46 Pending

I'm confident this match will see exactly 3 goals scored—no more, no less. Both teams have the firepower to find the net, but defensive discipline will keep the total from going over.

EI Emmanuel Idris Team 2 over 0.5odds 1.66 Pending

I expect both teams to score in this match. Tung hasn't been as straightforward as I initially thought, and I believe they have a real chance to find the net away from home.

ES Emeka Shehu Under 2.5odds 2.29 Pending

I predict the Swiss will hold firm away from home and keep the scoreline low against Croatia. They won't concede many, so I'm taking under 2.5 goals.

II Ibrahim Igwe Team 1 under 1.5odds 2.67 Pending

I’m confident the Swiss won’t make many defensive errors. Their system is built on discipline and low-risk play, and historically they tighten up in big moments. Expect a clean, organized performance on their end.

TO Temitope Obi Team 1 over 2.5odds 2.39 Pending

I believe Zagreb knows how to be effective at this stage, so why not? They have a track record of delivering when it matters most, and I’m confident they’ll find the net here.

BO Blessing Okonkwo Over 2.5odds 1.61 Pending

I believe there will be a high number of goal-scoring opportunities in the match.

RF Ronke Fashola Team 2 over 1odds 2.90 Pending

I’m confident the away team will score at least one goal. Their attacking form has been consistent, and they’ve found the net in recent matches against similar opposition. The home side’s defense has shown vulnerabilities, especially in transition, which plays right into the visitors’ strengths. I expect them to exploit those gaps and get on the scoresheet.

SM Sunday Mohammed Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.29 Pending

I predict Dinamo Zagreb vs. Thun will be a back-and-forth affair from the opening whistle. Both teams will go all out to seize control early, making this a fight for dominance from the very first minute.

AG Amina Garba Corners: Team 2 over 3odds 2.12 Pending

I'm confident that Dinamo Zagreb will not dominate as strongly as many expect. Their recent form points to a more subdued performance, so I'm betting against them controlling the game.

KS Kemi Sani Team 2 over 1odds 2.90 Pending

I'm confident the away team will find the net at least once, and I expect they could even score two. That's why I'm backing their individual total over 1 goal.

CO Collins Oladipo Handicap 1 (-2)odds 2.80 Pending

I'm confident Dynamo will win 3-0. There's no draw in sight here—this is a clean sweep.

SE Suleiman Emenike Result: 1odds 1.37 Pending

I'm confident Dynamo will win. Their strong form and home advantage give them a clear edge over the opponent, and I see no reason to bet against them.

BT Bukola Tanko Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.82 Pending

I'm taking "both teams to score" when Dinamo Zagreb hosts Thun.

The first match ended 1–1, so both sides already found the net. Despite Thun's coaching change and injury absences, Dinamo's deep European experience means they'll score at home—and Thun will get their chance on the counter. I'm confident goals will come from both ends.

BM Biodun Madu Over 3.5odds 2.44 Pending

I'm predicting a high-scoring performance in this match. The key factors point to an open game with plenty of goals—both teams have weak defenses and strong attacking momentum, making a shootout the most likely outcome.

OA Olusegun Akintola Team 2 over 1odds 2.90 Pending

I'm confident that Zagreb will gladly take a good football thrashing as a preventive measure. They have no objections to it.

Match poster

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun — odds

❓ Frequently asked questions

When and where is the Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun match?

The match is on 28 July 2026 at 19:00 local time at the Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb.

Who is the favorite to win the second leg?

Dinamo Zagreb is the heavy favorite, but the first leg ended 1-1 and Thun has shown they can be competitive, so a comfortable win is unlikely.

What are the recommended bets for this match?

The main bet is Thun +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.73, and a bet on both teams to score (Yes) at 2.00.

Why is Luka Stojković missing for Dinamo?

He is suspended for the return leg, which leaves a creative void in the midfield as he was the team's most decisive attacking player with 13 goals and 12 assists last season.

What is the referee known for?

Radoslav Gidzhenov from Bulgaria is known for strict, no-nonsense officiating, averaging 4.6 yellow cards per game in European competitions and having sent off three players in just 10 matches.