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Flora vs The New Saints: prediction and odds

Europe Conference League · Europe · 23 July 2026
Flora logoFlora
1:0
1st half: 1:0
23.07.2026 17:00
The New Saints logoThe New Saints

Match events

Remo valdmets1:0
31′
90′
🟨Daniel Williams

Match statistics: Flora vs The New Saints

FloraThe New Saints
57Ball possession, %43
14Shots8
3Shots on target5
7Corners3
10Fouls12
2Offsides0
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
156Attacks146
74Dangerous attacks74

💡 Match preview Flora vs The New Saints

Flora Tallinn and The New Saints clash in the first leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round, with both sides arriving in Estonia smarting from painful exits in the Champions League qualifiers. After suffering early eliminations in Europe’s premier competition, each team now looks to restore pride and momentum on this new continental front.

Tactical Analysis: Flora’s Defensive Crisis Deepens

Estonian champions Flora come into this fixture as the reigning Premium Liiga winners, having claimed the 2025 title with 82 points. Yet their current form is deeply worrying. In the first Champions League qualifying round, they failed to overcome Georgia’s Iberia 1999, losing 2-3 at home and drawing 2-2 away. Over the past two European campaigns, Konstantin Vassiljev’s side has been erratic: in 2024/25, they reached the third qualifying round of the Conference League before falling to Iceland’s Víkingur, while in 2025/26, they exited in the very first round, losing without a fight to Valur (0-3 and 1-2).

The root of their current malaise—four consecutive home defeats across all competitions—lies in a weakened defensive line. During the off-season, the club sold its leading centre-back, Tougjas, for a substantial fee. This loss has completely shattered the chemistry at the back. Forced to rely on very young replacements, the coaching staff has seen positional breakdowns become routine, as starkly illustrated by the three goals conceded against Iberia 1999. While attacking talents like the promising Varjund offer hope, the backline remains a glaring vulnerability.

Tactical Analysis: The New Saints’ Historic Experience and Sharp Recruitment

The Welsh champions also stumbled in the first Champions League qualifying round this season, losing to Azerbaijan’s Sabah Baku (0-2 away, 1-2 at home). However, unlike their Estonian hosts, The New Saints possess a unique and recent European pedigree. In the historic 2024/25 season, they caused a sensation by reaching the Conference League group stage, where they competed respectably against Fiorentina, Panathinaikos, and Djurgårdens, and secured a confident home victory over Astana (2-0).

To return to that level, the club executed a shrewd transfer campaign. They significantly bolstered their attacking potential by signing creative playmaker Nadin, who came through the Nottingham Forest academy, and striker Charles, known for his physical power and aggressive finishing from crosses. Additionally, they added winger Owen from Haverfordwest. Their high individual quality, British resilience, and ability to break down packed defences should prove decisive against Flora’s inexperienced backline.

Referee: Kristoffer Karlsson (Sweden)

In the 2025/26 season, the Swedish official has taken charge of 15 official matches across all competitions, issuing 57 yellow cards (an average of 3.8 per game), 3 straight red cards, and awarding 2 penalties. In international duty, Karlsson has officiated one Conference League qualifying match, in which he showed three yellows and one straight red. He referees with restraint, avoiding breaking up play with minor fouls, but is extremely strict on serious challenges, punishing them with direct dismissals. Defenders from both sides must be cautious, as the referee does not forgive lapses in concentration or blatant disruptions of promising attacks.

Predicted Lineups

Flora Tallinn: Grünvald; Pärn, Lukka, Varjund, Kallaste; Miller, Soomets; Ojamaa, Lillevälja, Tur; Alliku

The New Saints: Roberts; Astles, Davies, Marriott, Redmond; Smith, Brobbel; Nadin, Young, Owen; Charles

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: The New Saints to Win or Draw (Double Chance) at odds of 1.59

Given Flora’s dreadful home run of four consecutive defeats, their status as hosts looks far from advantageous. The Welsh side possesses a strong character, recent experience of playing in European group stages, and a significantly upgraded attack (Nadin, Charles). The systemic defensive crisis in Estonia following the sale of key centre-back Tougjas offers the visitors an excellent opportunity to secure a positive result on the road. We assess the probability of this outcome at 65% (anything above 1.54 is playable).

Total Goals Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.75

Flora’s home matches have recently turned into goal-fests with defensive collapses: in their last four games at the A. Le Coq Arena, they have consistently conceded at least twice, and the matches have routinely gone over the total. The Welsh side also regularly scores and concedes, and their new attacking players will be highly motivated to prove themselves in Europe. We assess the probability of this outcome at 58% (anything above 1.72 is playable).

Match odds Flora vs The New Saints

Result (1X2)

X3.612.3122.95

Double chance

1X1.41X21.62121.3

Both teams to score

No2.33Yes1.6

Over

11.0521.3432.2244.330.51.041.51.232.51.743.52.754.55.2

Under

1923.231.6641.210.5101.54.12.52.083.51.424.51.16

Handicap 1

01.6811.15-13.31.51.11-1.54

Handicap 2

02.1211.28-14.51.51.2-1.54.9

Correct score

0:0120:1100:2150:3301:08.61:161:29.61:3212:0112:18.22:2112:3273:0213:1163:2233:3454:0504:140

Predictions for Flora vs The New Saints

GA Grace Adeyemi Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.56 Lost

This will be the first head-to-head match between these teams, but it's already clear that their clash will be a tight battle. Both clubs lost their Champions League qualifiers and ended up in the Conference League qualifying round, and neither has won a single game out of the four they've played combined.

I also note that Flora hasn't won in their last three matches, but they've scored 5 goals while conceding 7, and in every one of those games, both they and their opponents found the net. In fact, over their last 8 matches, this pattern has occurred 7 times, making the "both teams to score" bet a consistent winner. For TNS, 3 of their last 4 games also saw both teams score, and they've conceded in all 4. So, the bottom line is that both sides are effective in attack, but their defenses are too weak to keep clean sheets often. I expect an exchange of goals today.

MO Michael Okafor Result: 2odds 2.72 Lost

I predict the away team will take the win in this tough match. They have the form and resilience to edge out a hard-fought victory.

EO Esther Olaniyan Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.91 Lost

I am betting on two goals in the second half of this match. I'm taking a calculated risk because I firmly believe the second half will be more productive and see multiple scores.

GO Gloria Oladipo Handicap 2 (0)odds 2.14 Lost

I believe the Estonians are fully capable of losing to this opponent outright. Their recent form and defensive vulnerabilities make them a shaky bet, and I'm confident they won't come out on top here.

OO Oluwaseun Obi Team 1 under 1.5odds 1.75 Won

I predict that both teams will prioritize defense in this matchup, leading to a low-scoring game. Historically, when they face each other, they focus on protecting their own goal rather than taking risks in attack. Trust my analysis—this game will be a defensive battle.

OA Oluwaseun Akintola Result: 1odds 2.24 Won

I'm confident that Flora will beat the Welsh, at least in this home match. The home advantage and their recent form give them a clear edge, and I don't see the visitors pulling off an upset here.

OS Obinna Sowole Over 2.5odds 1.69 Lost

I'm taking the over in this match. Both teams have been consistently high-scoring, and I expect that trend to continue. The numbers support another productive outing, so I'm confident this total gets cleared.

JM John Musa Result: 2odds 2.89 Lost

I'm confident The New Saints will come through on the road—they've won six of their last eight away matches. That kind of consistent form is hard to argue with, and I expect them to keep delivering.

CB Chioma Bankole Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.00 Lost

I am confident that Flora will put up a strong fight in their Champions League round, but they will ultimately lose. Their effort is commendable, but they simply lack the quality to secure a win.

UE Uche Eze Corners: Under 9.5odds 1.98 Lost

I'm backing over 9.5 total corners in this match between Flora and New Saints. Both sides are aggressive going forward, and I expect an open, attacking contest with plenty of set-piece opportunities. The home crowd will push Flora to attack, while New Saints are dangerous on the counter—this should lead to a high corner count.

CA Chinedu Abubakar Result: 1odds 2.30 Won

I'm confident that Flora will secure a win on their home turf. The home advantage and their current form give them a clear edge over the opponent. This is a straightforward bet.

MA Michael Anyanwu Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.58 Lost

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FL Folake Lawal Corners: Under 8.5odds 2.60 Lost

I believe Flora and New Saints will defend solidly on the flanks, so they won't earn more than eight corners in this match.

YO Yetunde Ogundipe Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.58 Lost

I’m confident that both teams will score in Flora’s upcoming match. In their last three games, Flora hasn’t won but has scored 5 goals while conceding 7, and both sides found the net in each of those contests. Looking at their last eight matches, this pattern held in seven of them, making the both teams to score bet a strong play.

BL Bukola Lawal Over 2.5odds 1.72 Lost

I forecast that the quantity will be pushed higher. The reasoning is straightforward: demand continues to outpace supply, and the incentives to increase output are clear. I'm confident in this outcome because the fundamentals haven't changed.

RN Rita Nnaji Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.58 Lost

I confidently predict that the most accurate bet for the Flora vs The New Saints match, with odds starting at 1.50, is Over 2.5 Goals. Flora’s defense has been leaking goals, averaging 2 conceded per game in recent European ties, while The New Saints saw “Both Teams to Score” in 6 of their last 10 away matches. Additionally, 7 of Flora’s last 10 home games went over 2.5 total goals. The data strongly supports this outcome.

I’m avoiding a straight win bet because the teams are extremely evenly matched—win probabilities for each side are nearly equal, making that pick too risky. Instead, I’m backing the Over 2.5 goals market as the most solid, high-probability choice here.

TA Temitope Adewale Over 2 (2nd half)odds 3.00 Lost

These are evenly matched teams, both weak and without much future in the tournament. But when they face each other, I expect a competitive fight, especially in the second half, with goals.

AA Aisha Ademola Over 2 (2nd half)odds 3.00 Lost

I’m backing this one purely based on the odds. These matches are impossible to read, so I’m going with the value on the board. The line feels too generous for what’s essentially a coin flip, and I trust the numbers more than any narrative. This is a straightforward bet on the price, nothing more.

GO Gloria Oni Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.95 Lost

I'm confident both teams will score in the second half. They have the attacking firepower to combine for two goals after the break.

IA Ifeoma Abubakar Result: Xodds 3.62 Lost

I'm confident this match ends in a draw. Both sides are evenly matched and unlikely to take risks, making a stalemate the most probable outcome.

FO Faith Onyeka Corners: Team 1 over 6odds 2.14 Won

I expect Flora to maintain their aggressive corner-taking approach. In two Champions League matches against Georgian opponents, they earned 13 corners, and their league average is just over 6 per game. That consistency points to another high corner count for them today.

YA Yemi Ademola Double chance: 1Xodds 1.41 Won

I am confident that the first team will not lose this game. They have the stronger squad and better recent form, making a defeat highly unlikely. I expect them to control the match and secure at least a draw.

My reasoning is straightforward: the first team's defensive structure and attacking efficiency are superior to their opponent's. Any result other than a win or a draw would be a major surprise given the current dynamics.

PD Peter Danjuma Result: 1odds 2.30 Won

I believe Flora will win this match. They perform consistently well on their home field.

AA Amara Ademola Result: 1odds 2.23 Won

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OS Oluwaseun Shehu Team 2 under 1odds 2.27 Won

TNS put in a dreadful performance away to Sabah — that much is clear. I'm confident they'll be desperate to bounce back, but the lack of cohesion and defensive fragility on display doesn't give me any reason to trust them here. I'm backing Sabah to take advantage again.

YL Yusuf Lawal Under 2.5odds 2.07 Won

I'm predicting this match will end in a goalless draw. Both teams are extremely defensive and could easily fail to score at all.

AO Ayodele Oyelaran Over 2.5odds 1.72 Lost

I am confident that the ceasefire will hold through the end of the year. The key parties have strong incentives to maintain stability, and recent diplomatic efforts have significantly reduced the risk of renewed hostilities. While isolated incidents may occur, they are unlikely to escalate into a full breakdown of the agreement.

YO Yusuf Okonkwo Over 3odds 2.15 Lost

I'm confident this match will be high-scoring. I'm expecting a result.

GA Godwin Anyanwu Handicap 1 (-1)odds 3.22 Void

I'm confident in this outcome — they're motivated and well-prepared to play.

KO Kunle Obiora Over 2.5odds 1.72 Lost

I expect plenty of goals here. Both teams are fielding attacking lineups, so this match should be high-scoring.

AA Anthony Abdullahi Over 2.5odds 1.72 Lost

I'm confident both teams will score and concede plenty. They're equally capable of finding the net and letting in goals, so expect an open, high-scoring affair.

MO Musa Ogundipe Over 2.5odds 1.72 Lost

I'm expecting a high-scoring match between Flora and The New Saints. Both teams have attacking firepower and defensive vulnerabilities, so goals should come at both ends. I'm confident this will be an entertaining, open game with plenty of action.

UB Uche Balogun Result: Xodds 3.62 Lost

I am confident this match ends in a draw. Neither side has a clear edge, and both will prioritize not losing over taking risks.

KA Kingsley Adeyemi Result: 1odds 2.25 Won

Flora has been absolutely dominant in their recent matches, and I see no reason for that to change. Their form is undeniable, and every stat backs up the eye test—they're controlling games from start to finish. I'm backing them to keep rolling and deliver another strong performance.

EO Emmanuel Obi Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.52 Lost

I'm confident both teams will come out aggressively in the first half, making an over on the total a strong bet. Their attacking intent early on consistently pushes the scoreline past the line.

DN Daniel Nwosu Under 2.5odds 2.07 Won

I predict a low-scoring, cautious affair between two evenly matched but overly careful teams. Flora is playing in economy mode, prioritizing defensive solidity, while The New Saints always sit back on the road, killing the tempo with short passes in their own half. No one will charge forward with an open visor in the first leg. Expect a slow, grinding midfield battle with minimal dangerous moments.

VI Victoria Idris Result: 1odds 2.25 Won

Flora has every chance to win at home, so I'm locking in this excellent option.

OB Obinna Bello Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.60 Lost

I'm confident both teams will score in this match. It's going to be a tough, tightly contested game, and I see a draw as the most likely outcome.

PT Patience Tanko Double chance: 1Xodds 1.41 Won

I am certain this is one of the possible forecasts for this match. My analysis points to this outcome as a strong contender based on the key factors at play.

JO Joy Obi Team 2 over 1.5odds 2.35 Lost

I'm backing New Saints to win this match. The away side looks very promising against Flora, with strong form and a clear tactical edge. Their recent performances show they have the quality to dominate and secure the result.

HO Hauwa Onyeka Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.44 Lost

I'm taking the over 1.5 goals in the first half of Flora's home match against The New Saints. Both teams tend to start fast, and with Flora pushing for an early advantage on their own turf, I expect at least two goals before the break. The reasoning is solid: home momentum and aggressive opening play make this a strong bet.

KA Kayode Abubakar Over 3odds 2.22 Lost

I confidently predict over 2.5 goals in Flora's next match. This bet has hit in 11 consecutive games for the team, and that streak gives me every reason to expect it to continue.

SA Segun Adeyemi Corners: Result: 2odds 2.95 Lost

I am confident that the British side is superior in this component. That's why I'm backing the corner bet P2 – they will dominate this market and deliver the expected result.

AO Adewale Okoro Result: 1odds 2.31 Won

I'm predicting a win for the home side in this first Conference League match. After their slip-up in the Champions League, the team will be fully focused and motivated to bounce back here, making a strong result highly likely.

RS Ronke Sowole Over 2.5odds 1.74 Lost

I'm confident this low total will be surpassed. Both teams have the offensive firepower to easily clear it.

SM Sunday Mohammed Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.00 Lost

I confidently predict that Flora will score at least two goals. Playing at home, they have the attacking quality to create and convert clear-cut chances against their opponent.

Match poster

Flora vs The New Saints — odds

❓ Frequently asked questions

When and where is the Flora vs The New Saints match scheduled?

The first leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round takes place on 23 July 2026 at 17:00 at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn, Estonia.

What is the main betting prediction for Flora vs The New Saints?

The main prediction is The New Saints to win or draw (double chance) at odds of 1.59, reflecting Flora’s four consecutive home defeats and defensive issues.

Who is favoured to advance or get a positive result in this match?

The New Saints are favoured due to their recent Conference League group stage experience, a strengthened attack with new signings Nadin and Charles, and Flora's defensive crisis after selling key centre-back Tougjas.

What is the current form of Flora Tallinn and The New Saints?

Flora lost four home games in a row and were eliminated early from Champions League qualifying. The New Saints also lost in the Champions League first round but reached the Conference League group stage last season and upgraded their attack.

Are there any important player absences for this match?

Flora sold their leading centre-back Tougjas in the off-season, leaving their defense vulnerable with young replacements. The New Saints have no reported absences in the provided text.

Who is the referee and what is his style?

Swedish referee Kristoffer Karlsson officiates. He issues few cards for minor fouls but is very strict on serious challenges, having shown a straight red in his only previous Conference League qualifier this season.