Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and odds

Düsseldorf is set for a fascinating friendly clash between a fallen giant and a Bundesliga powerhouse. The local side, Fortuna Düsseldorf, will face Borussia Dortmund – last season’s Bundesliga runners-up – in a pre-season fixture that pits a team freshly relegated to the third division against a squad still shaking off holiday rust. The hosts are nearing the end of their preparation, while the visitors only returned to training last week. Can Fortuna level the playing field with superior fitness, or will Dortmund’s class shine through despite a lack of match sharpness?

Fortuna Düsseldorf: Starting from Scratch

Fortuna Düsseldorf were the biggest disappointment of the previous 2. Bundesliga campaign. After coming close to promotion in three of the last four seasons, they now face their first spell in the third division since 2008. Alexander Ende took over as head coach with five matchdays remaining and collected six points from a possible 15 – not enough to save the club. During summer training, Düsseldorf easily beat local amateur sides three times and also defeated Slovakian mid-table side Ruzomberok (2-0). However, Austrian champions LASK Linz proved too strong, beating them 2-0 – a respectable result considering Fortuna kept a clean sheet until the 56th minute.

Relegation has left deep scars. The squad has been overhauled by over 80%. Only the established centre-back pairing of Tim Obberdorf and Ellis Eguli remains, along with a few young reserve players. Among the new arrivals, Jorrit Hendrix stands out – formerly of Spartak Moscow, with experience in the Eredivisie and European competitions. Steven van der Sloot (8 goals, 2 assists last season as right-back for Den Haag), Dominik Heinz (220 Bundesliga appearances), and Fabian Schleusener (14 goals, 4 assists in 35 matches for Karlsruhe) also join. But the club has lost far more than it has gained.

Borussia Dortmund: Banking on Youth

Dortmund enjoyed a powerful Bundesliga season, collecting 73 points – their highest tally in seven years. They also conceded only 34 goals, fewer than even Bayern Munich (36). However, under Niko Kovač, the team lacked consistency in other competitions, exiting the DFB-Pokal in the round of 16 and the Champions League in the round of 32. Preparations for the new season began only last week. After initial heavy training loads, Dortmund played a friendly against fourth-tier Rot-Weiss Essen, winning 3-1. Despite lacking match fitness, they looked fresher than their opponents in the final stages, thanks to the depth of their bench.

The squad is currently depleted. Several key players – Gregor Kobel, Julian Ryerson, Ramy Bensebaini, Daniel Svensson, Nico Schlotterbeck, Felix Nmecha, and Maximilian Beier – are absent due to participation in the World Cup and will join later. Some are also injured. In this transfer window, Dortmund lost Julian Brandt, a standout attacker since 2019. The frontline has been reinforced only by 18-year-old Justin Lerma, who scored in the first friendly. The defence has been bolstered by teenage prodigy Joan Gadou, who is expected to get minutes here. Dortmund will field a young but highly competitive lineup.

Predicted Lineups

Fortuna Düsseldorf (4-3-1-2): Riss – van der Sloot, Obberdorf, E. Eguli, Risch – Hendrix, Bouchama, Konsbruch – Eixler – Hottmann, Schleusener Unavailable: Anhari (injured) Head coach: Alexander Ende

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1): Meyer – Rejani, Gadou, Mané – Couto, Job, Yamamoto, Kabar – Inacio, Lerma – Guirassy Unavailable: Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Can, Prates (all injured); Kobel, Bensebaini, Svensson, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Beier (all not in squad) Head coach: Niko Kovač

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Even though the visitors will field a far from full-strength side, they remain overwhelming favourites. Nearly every player in their squad either boasts top-division experience or possesses significant potential, while only a handful of Fortuna’s men can claim the same. Dortmund’s performance against Rot-Weiss showed they are in good physical shape despite just returning from holiday. The hosts, who are finishing their preparation, are unlikely to enjoy a major fitness advantage. Moreover, Düsseldorf will probably avoid overloading their key players ahead of the league season. The odds on a Dortmund win are unappealing, so it’s worth taking a risk on Borussia Dortmund to win with a -1.5 handicap at 2.33.

Total prediction: Düsseldorf lost 2-0 to LASK last week. Containing the current opponent looks even more difficult. Both goals against LASK came in the second half, and Dortmund similarly overpowered Rot-Weiss after the break through substitutions. The attack of the Black and Yellows raises few questions, but replicating last season’s defensive solidity in the Bundesliga will be tough: Kobel is absent, and the defence consists of young, uncoordinated players who failed to keep a clean sheet even against a fourth-tier side. Note that the teams last met three and a half years ago, producing six goals in a 5-1 Dortmund win. Repeating that may be a stretch, but total goals over 3.5 at 1.88 is a solid option.