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France vs England: prediction and odds

FIFA World Cup · World · 18 July 2026
France logoFrance
4:6
1st half: 0:4
18.07.2026 22:00
England logoEngland

Match events

3′
0:1Declan Rice
18′
0:2Ezri Konsa
37′
0:3Bukayo Saka
45+1′
0:4Bukayo Saka
Kylian Mbappé1:4
48′
Bradley Barcola2:4
54′
Kylian Mbappé3:4
66′
87′
3:5Bukayo Saka
Ousmane Dembélé4:5
90+6′
90+8′
4:6Jude Bellingham

Match statistics: France vs England

FranceEngland
2.57xG (expected goals)2.81
46Ball possession, %54
19Shots19
9Shots on target11
3Corners4
14Fouls8
3Offsides3
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
75Attacks60
55Dangerous attacks27

💡 Match preview France vs England

In a highly anticipated consolation match for the bronze medal, the national teams of France and England will clash at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, following painful semi-final defeats and a torrent of criticism back home. This fixture marks the final act for Didier Deschamps, who is stepping down after 14 continuous years at the helm of the French squad.

France: A Breakdown at Full Speed

The French side’s journey to the semi-finals was nothing short of phenomenal, backed by the best creative metrics of the tournament. Throughout the knockout rounds against Sweden (3-0), Paraguay (1-0), and Morocco (2-0), the team displayed exemplary balance, accumulating a total of 14.63 xG (expected goals) over the course of the World Cup while maintaining a manageable defensive vulnerability (4.68 xGA). However, in the semi-final match against Spain, the well-oiled mechanism broke down. The "Bleus" attack managed a record-low 0.31 xG, while the defensive unit faltered, allowing the opponent to rack up 1.63 xGA (expected goals against). The Spanish effectively shut down the flanks, depriving France of their primary weapon: operational space.

The psychological backdrop for the squad ahead of the bronze medal match is hardly favorable. The defeat just one step from the final has undoubtedly impacted their emotional state, compounding the problem is a back injury to key defender William Saliba. Under these circumstances, Didier Deschamps is likely to significantly refresh the starting lineup. We can expect Konaté and Lacroix to anchor the center of defense from the first minute, while Kanté and Zaïre-Emery take charge of stability in the midfield pivot. An exception is Kylian Mbappé, who is vying for the tournament's Golden Boot (tied for first place with Messi, each with 8 goals).

France’s tactical approach will undergo changes, despite retaining the basic 4-2-3-1 formation. Due to personnel adjustments and a lack of freshness, the coaching staff will probably abandon their usual reliance on high-speed flank play. The introduction of Ryan Cherki in the attacking midfield role will shift the creative focus toward methodical positional attacks and short passes in the half-spaces. Meanwhile, the absence of the injured Saliba will force the team to be more cautious defensively. The "Bleus" will drop their defensive line deeper, abandoning a high press in favor of a compact mid-block.

England: Internal Sabotage

The English team navigated the playoff rounds with considerable difficulty. On their path to the semi-finals, they overcame DR Congo (2-1), Mexico (3-2), and Norway (2-1 in extra time), relying on pragmatism and accumulating only 10.64 xG overall throughout the tournament. However, in the semi-final against Argentina (1-2), this strategy backfired. After scoring, Thomas Tuchel dropped his team into a low block, causing the "Three Lions" to lose their rhythm and possess the ball for a mere 12% of the time—the worst statistic in World Cup history. England essentially abandoned counterattacking, allowing the opponent to set up camp near their penalty area, and conceded twice in the closing stages.

A mental crisis has also affected the British side, a fact openly confirmed by Thomas Tuchel. The head coach spoke harshly about the very format of the "consolation final," stating:

"None of our players, nor the French players, want to play this match. They all wanted to be in the main final. We gave absolutely everything to get there. Everyone plays at a World Cup to win, but what happened, happened. Of course, we will approach the match professionally."

The psychological slump is compounded by personnel losses: right wing-back Reece James will miss the match in Miami due to a muscular relapse. However, Tuchel has promised to refresh the lineup. An additional incentive is the return of defender Jarrell Quansah from suspension and Harry Kane’s desire to redeem himself after his semi-final failure.

Naturally, the squad rotation typical of a third-place match may force the coaching staff to rethink the tactical balance. Due to Declan Rice’s fatigue, Tuchel will likely revamp the midfield pivot, pairing Elliott Anderson with Kobbie Mainoo. The possible introduction of Jarrell Quansah for John Stones in central defense only amplifies the scale of rotation and could negatively impact the defensive line's cohesion. Consequently, England will abandon the low block and attempt to compensate for the lack of coordination through a high press. Still, the key attacking core of Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane is expected to start from the first minute.

Predicted Lineups for the France vs. England Match

France (4-2-3-1): Maignan – Gusto, Konaté, Lacroix, T. Hernandez – Kanté, Zaïre-Emery – Doué, Cherki, Barcola – Mbappé

Unavailable: Saliba (injury), Samba (doubtful)

Head Coach: Didier Deschamps

England (4-2-3-1): Pickford – Spence, Quansah, Guehi, O’Riley – Mainoo, Anderson – Madueke, Bellingham, Rashford – Kane

Unavailable: Henderson, Livramento, James (all injured)

Head Coach: Thomas Tuchel

Referee: Jesús Valenzuela (Venezuela)

Valenzuela is a relatively strict referee, averaging 4.09 yellow cards and 26.04 fouls in international matches. However, in his three matches at this World Cup, he has not shown more than 2 yellow cards per game, with 17 fouls per match.

Prediction and Bet for the France vs. England Match

Main Prediction: France to Win at 1.92

Both teams are deep in a mental slump after their gold-medal dreams were shattered. In conditions where the game loses much of its tournament status and takes on a semi-friendly tone, the ability to quickly recover from a psychological blow comes to the forefront. France has a noticeable advantage in this regard. The "Bleus" had an extra day for recovery and to emerge from their emotional crisis. Furthermore, they need to give Didier Deschamps a fitting send-off in his final match in charge of the national team. An additional factor will be Kylian Mbappé’s desire to secure the tournament's Golden Boot. Our pick: victory for France at 1.92.

Total Goals Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.78

In the last three World Cups, the "consolation finals" have never seen more than three goals scored. This trend is supported by the teams' statistics at the current tournament: the under 3.5 goals bet has been successful for both France and England in five of their seven matches. Even with rotation, the defensive blocks of both sides will maintain structural discipline, and the psychological burnout of the teams following their semi-final defeats will strip the game of a high tempo. We’ll bet on total goals under (3.5) at 1.78.

Probable lineups: France vs England

France logoFrance4-2-3-1
Maignan
T. HernandezLacroixKonateGusto
Zaire-EmeryKante
BarcolaCherkiDoué
Mbappé
Out of squad:Saliba · Injury
England logoEngland4-2-3-1
Pickford
O'RileyGuehiQuansahSpence
AndersonMainoo
RashfordBellinghamMadueke
Kane
Out of squad:Henderson · InjuryLivramento · Injury

Match odds France vs England

Result (1X2)

X411.8823.95

Double chance

1X1.28X21.98121.28

Both teams to score

No2.69Yes1.41

Over

21.1431.6442.855.451.51.092.51.413.52.14.53.385.56.1

Under

24.8532.241.4151.111.55.82.52.723.51.754.51.285.51.08

Handicap 1

01.4111.07-12.39-24.91.51.04-1.52.99-2.55.7

Handicap 2

02.9511.5321.13-17.11.51.332.51.1-1.57.9

Correct score

0:019.50:117.750:2271:011.751:17.61:212.51:3272:012.252:18.32:210.752:3253:017.253:112.53:216.753:3324:0324:1234:232

To qualify

11.4822.67

Predictions for France vs England

DO Daniel Olaniyan Team 1 over 3.5odds 5.20 Won

I’m backing France to win the third‑place match against England. England’s confidence is shattered after blowing a lead to Argentina in the final minutes of extra time—and conceding a header, supposedly their strength. Tuchel’s men have struggled to impose their possession style all tournament, and now they’re rolling out an experimental, hyper‑attacking lineup that screams desperation rather than stability. France, by contrast, had a bad night against Spain in the semis but had cruised through every other game except a tight, goalless‑from‑play battle with Paraguay. Mbappé is chasing the Golden Boot, and this team won’t hold back. England’s makeshift defense won’t handle him. France takes it.

KN Kingsley Nwosu Over 2.5 (1st half)odds 4.40 Won

France were the favorites to win the title before the semifinals, and given how they played throughout the tournament, they looked superior and were at least expected to reach the final—but that didn’t happen. Spain built a smart game plan against them, using midfield pressure to shut down their speed, which had been their key to success time and again, tying them up completely. The result was inevitable. It’s doubtful these players even care about third place given their ambitions, but one thing is clear: Kylian Mbappé will push for the win, and most importantly, to score as many goals as possible. The whole team will play for him—even two goals might not be enough, and claiming the top scorer award would be a fitting achievement, so there’s no doubt he’ll start.

England took another blow, and Tuchel will likely leave the squad. Neither he nor the team need this bronze medal, so the lineup will feature players who saw little or no playing time—meaning they’re clearly not cohesive in defense, but they can still score. The game will likely be open from the first minutes.

JO John Ogundipe Team 1 over 1.5odds 1.56 Won

I’m confident France will score at least twice against England. They average 2.29 goals per match and generate 16.7 shots, with 7.0 on target—that’s relentless attacking. England’s defense has been shaky, conceding 1.14 goals per game, and their recent errors have been punished. France’s lethal counterattacks will exploit those gaps. Head-to-head history backs me up: France beat England 2-1 in the 2022 World Cup and have scored exactly two goals in two of their last three wins against them. This third-place match will be open and attacking, with both teams eager to put on a show after missing the final. France will deliver at least two goals.

RW Ronke Waziri Correct score 2:1odds 8.20 Lost

I'm betting on France to win 2-1. Many expected France in the final, but their semifinal against Spain was a disaster—nothing worked in attack and the defense fell apart. Yet the team handled it well with no negativity. England's situation is different: after losing to Argentina, Tuchel faced heavy criticism from former and even current players. His decision to protect the lead was understandable, even if it failed. Now England's injury problems make it hard to contain France. England will likely score, but France's strong attack will prevail. I see a 2-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome—France's attacking strength makes two goals realistic, and England will score but still lose.

GI Gabriel Ibe Corners: Team 1 over 5odds 1.93 Lost

I’m backing France’s individual total of over 4.5 corners. On the group stage, they took five corners per game, only falling short once. In the knockout rounds, their corner count has been even more convincing: nine against Sweden, twelve against Paraguay, five against Morocco, and seven against Spain. England, meanwhile, have allowed plenty of corners in most matches—only Congo failed to reach five corners in the playoffs. Given France’s consistent delivery and England’s tendency to concede corners, this is a strong play.

SA Sunday Afolabi Over 3.5odds 2.13 Won

I'm confident this match for third place will be more open than many expect. France were outclassed by Spain in the semifinal, but they had dominated every previous game. England, after a strong start against Croatia, became cautious and paid for it against Argentina. Both teams have players like Mbappé and Harry Kane who will want to finish on a high note and inspire their teammates. The talk of weakened lineups is just noise—these players have pride.

I'm taking over 3.5 goals. The motivation may be questioned, but the attacking talent on both sides is too good to stay quiet, especially after disappointing semifinal defeats. This should be a lively, high-scoring affair.

BB Blessing Bello Corners: Under 9.5odds 1.53 Won

The World Cup flew by—only two matches left. I'll start with the third-place game between France and England, both now the biggest letdowns. France was invisible against Spain, and England choked a match they should have won. Neither wanted to be here. This is Deschamps' last match, but after his zero impact last time, I don't see how he changes things today. France had few corners in most games, and I doubt that shifts. England will sit back again, which means even fewer corners from them. I also don't expect many goals. Still, I'll play it safe—teams might want to go out with a bang, and both sides have Ballon d'Or contenders. So I'm betting on under corners, despite the attacking talent. The final will be the real show.

PI Peter Igwe Yellow cards: Over 2.5odds 2.13 Lost

I’m confident this match will be a physical battle full of yellow cards. France picked up two bookings against Spain in the semifinal, while England got one against Argentina—but that’s just the start. England racked up four yellows against Mexico, and France got three against Paraguay. The referee, Jesús Valenzuela from Venezuela, averages four yellow cards per game and 26 fouls overall, though he’s been slightly more lenient at this World Cup with about two per match. Still, the historic rivalry between England and France guarantees an intense, foul-heavy contest.

England will rely on counterattacks, while France will take control from the start and try to break down the British defense completely. Expect plenty of fouls and cards as these two great powers clash on the pitch.

FI Folake Ibe Yellow cards: Over 2odds 1.59 Lost

France and England meet in the World Cup third-place match, and while the stakes are lower than the final, there’s still plenty of pride and individual motivation on the line. France lost to Spain in the semifinals, England fell to Argentina in a heartbreaker. Both teams have strong attacking talent—Mbappé chasing the Golden Boot, Kane leading England—but fatigue and disappointment often lead to sloppy fouls in these consolation games. France averages 0.9 yellow cards per match, England 0.8, but with Venezuelan referee Jesús Valenzuela averaging 4.1 bookings per game in FIFA tournaments, I expect the cards to pile up. The referee’s tendency to whistle tactical fouls, combined with tired legs and frustrated players, makes me confident in this call.

My bet: Total yellow cards over 2.

EO Esther Olawale To qualify: 2odds 2.67 Pending

I am confident that England will defeat the French team. The match is theirs to win.

KA Kelechi Adewale Result: 1odds 1.88 Lost

I confidently predict that France will win the match in regular time. The team's strength and form make this outcome highly likely.

AM Aisha Mohammed Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.99 Pending

I am confident France will easily beat their opponents. Their squad depth and recent form simply overpower any challenge, leaving no room for doubt.

GA Godwin Anyanwu Over 3.5odds 2.08 Pending

I am confident in this result. After analyzing past matches and current player form, I believe this outcome is the most likely.

EO Emeka Oladipo To qualify: 1odds 1.48 Pending

I'm backing France to beat England. The home crowd advantage will be decisive—French fans will create an intimidating atmosphere that unsettles the visitors. England's recent form has been inconsistent, while Les Bleus are solid and feeding off that energy. France wins.

FA Faith Abdullahi Correct score 0:1odds 17.75 Lost

I’m predicting England will win by exactly one goal. They’ve been grinding out results rather than blowing teams away, and their defense is solid enough to hold a narrow lead. The opponent will sit deep and make it scrappy, but England’s quality in the final third will be enough to edge it. Don’t expect a rout—this will be a tight, controlled victory.

MI Musa Idris Under 3.5odds 1.75 Lost

I’m taking Under 3.5 goals at 1.75. France’s full-time win is priced too short at 1.88 for a team that’s been in tight knockout games, and neither side has any track record of a high-scoring affair here. England’s attack is one-dimensional—Kane and Bellingham are hit-or-miss—and Pickford is a liability in goal. The last World Cup meeting ended 2-1, and both teams will be cautious fighting for bronze. The probability of more than three goals is under 30%, so the value is clear. I’m confident this stays low-scoring.

Match poster

France vs England — odds