Girona vs Alavés: prediction and odds

Girona’s relegation from La Liga last season was a bitter pill to swallow, and the club has since undergone a painful squad overhaul. This friendly against Alavés serves as a serious test ahead of the new campaign. The visitors, who retained their top-flight status, have already played one pre-season match and look well-equipped to challenge a stubborn opponent.

Tactical Analysis: Girona – A Painful Relegation and Squad Rebuild

The past season was a genuine disaster for the Catalan club. Girona finished 19th in the La Liga table, collecting just 41 points, and were relegated to the Segunda División. The end of the campaign was particularly weak: consecutive defeats to Betis (2-3), Valencia (1-2), Mallorca (0-1), and Atlético Madrid (0-1) were followed by a 1-1 draw with Elche in the final match.

Relegation triggered a mass exodus of key players. Ladislav Krejčí was sold for €7.5 million, John Solís for €7.5 million, and Joel Roca for €5 million. Daley Blind left as a free agent, and Belgian veteran Axel Witsel also departed. In response, the club brought in Izan González (€300,000), Alexander Pishchur (€900,000), and free agent Iván Morante. The coaching staff now faces the challenge of rebuilding the team’s identity with a significantly changed squad.

Tactical Analysis: Alavés – Staying Up and Targeted Reinforcements

The Basque side achieved their primary objective for the season by securing their place in the top division. Alavés finished 14th with 43 points. The end of the campaign was inconsistent, mixing wins over Real Oviedo (1-0) and Barcelona (1-0) with losses to Athletic Bilbao (2-4) and Rayo Vallecano (1-2). Their summer friendly schedule kicked off on July 18 with a 1-1 draw against Eibar.

Alavés’ transfer activity has been pragmatic. The club sold Víctor Parada for €5 million and Asier Villalibre for €1 million, while also letting Jon Guridi leave as a free agent. The proceeds were reinvested into strengthening the central spine: defender Ville Koski was purchased for €3 million, and midfielder Mikel Rodríguez arrived for €2 million.

Predicted Lineups

Girona: (4-3-3) – Juan Carlos; Arnau Martínez, David López, Juanpe, Miguel Gutiérrez; Iván Morante, Yangel Herrera, Aleix García; Viktor Tsygankov, Artem Dovbyk, Savinho.

Alavés: (4-4-2) – Antonio Sivera; Rubén Duarte, Víctor Laguardia, Abdel Abqar, Javi López; Luis Rioja, Mikel Rodríguez, Ander Guevara, Jon Guridi; Kike García, Samu Omorodion.

Referee

The match will be officiated by Javier Alberola Rojas, a La Liga referee with experience in handling pre-season friendlies.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Alavés to Win with Draw No Bet (0)

Alavés have retained their core squad and made targeted additions. Girona, meanwhile, are in the midst of a painful transition following their relegation from La Liga, having lost several important players. The Basques have already played one pre-season match last week, giving them valuable competitive minutes. Under these circumstances, the visitors look the stronger side. We recommend backing Alavés to win with a draw-no-bet (0) handicap. The probability of this outcome, accounting for the possibility of a refund, is estimated at 62% (anything above 1.55 is considered playable).

Total Goals Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals

In friendly matches, high physical loads often prevent teams from playing intense, open football. The Catalans have lost creativity in midfield, while the Basques traditionally prioritize defensive solidity. Fewer than three goals have been scored in five of Girona’s previous matches and in four of Alavés’ last five outings. Expect a tight, scrappy contest with few clear-cut chances. We recommend betting on under 2.5 goals. The probability of this outcome is estimated at 56% (anything above 1.75 is considered playable).