Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Víkingur Reykjavík: prediction and odds

The start of Champions League qualifying in the middle of domestic seasons creates a peculiar dynamic. While most European clubs are still shaking off the rust, Iceland’s Vikingur Reykjavik are operating at peak form and have made a habit of snatching victories in the dying moments – for the second consecutive round. This time, Hapoel Be’er Sheva were the victims, leaving the Israeli side with the daunting task of engineering a comeback without the boost of their own fans.

Hapoel Be’er Sheva: Dependence on Attacking Leaders

The Israeli champions returned to the Champions League after a six-year absence, and on paper they possess the tools to compete in the later qualifying rounds: a championship-winning core, a pragmatic coach, and two standout attackers who drive their creativity. Yet that very reliance on a select few exposes a critical weakness. In the 2025/26 season, Kings Kangwa has recorded 12 goals and 9 assists in 33 matches, while Lucas Ventura has managed the midfield balance in 33 appearances. But the moment either of them is sidelined, the team’s structure collapses. That was exactly what happened in the first leg against Vikingur (1-2). Kangwa’s equaliser brought the score level, but once he left the pitch, the defense crumbled and conceded just four minutes before full time.

Crucially, Hapoel cannot count on the home crowd to fuel a comeback. The second leg will be played on neutral ground in Hungary – a factor that actually favors the Icelanders, who secured their passage to the second qualifying round in that very country. It is also worth noting that a full month has passed since their first pre-season friendly, and the defensive unit remains alarmingly poor. In all five official matches this season, the “red-and-whites” have conceded at least two goals per game.

Vikingur Reykjavik: Late-Game Heroics

Vikingur entered the European campaign in excellent shape. They sit top of the Icelandic league, having lost just once in 16 matches – and that defeat came only after they had already switched focus to the Champions League. Operating at peak fitness gives the “Vikings” a distinct advantage on the continental stage. In the first qualifying round, they squeezed past Gyor 1-0 at home with a late winner, then repeated the trick against Hapoel (2-1). They produced twice as many shots as their opponents and deserved the victory. Notable is the fact that any player in this Vikingur side can step up as the leader. In the first two-legged tie, it was veteran Gylfi Sigurdsson; against the Israelis, it was Nikolai Hansen, who scored a brace and also netted the winner against Gyor.

Ahead of the return leg, Vikingur gained even more confidence by thrashing Keflavik 5-1 in the league, with the coaching staff again avoiding heavy rotation to keep the players sharp. The second leg against Hapoel will be played in Hungary – the same country where the “Vikings” already held Gyor 2-2 in the first round. Notably, even away from home, they did not change their approach: they matched the opponent in shots on target, used their attacking chances efficiently, and did not buckle without the support of a large away crowd.

Predicted Lineups

Hapoel Be’er Sheva (4-3-3): Marciano – Mizrahi, Vitor, Diop, Davidzada – Kangwa, Nonoka, Yeoshua – Abu Rumi, Zlatanovic, Ganah

Out: Bitton (injury)

Head coach: Ran Kojok

Vikingur Reykjavik (4-3-3): Fridriksson – Gunnarsson, Ekroth, Vatnhamar, Gudjonsson – Sigurdsson, Ingimundarson, Hafsteinsson – Borgthorsson, Hansen, Traundarson

Out: Jonsson (injury)

Head coach: Solvi Ottesen

Referee: Antoni Bandic (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

In the 2025/26 season, the Bosnian official has taken charge of 16 competitive matches and established himself as a very strict referee. On average, Bandic has recorded 29.4 fouls per game and issued 5.06 yellow cards. Moreover, he has sent off a player in every fourth match and pointed to the penalty spot in 6 out of 16 games.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Vikingur Reykjavik to avoid defeat @ 2.40

The nominal hosts are considered favorites, but that was also the case against Gyor in the first qualifying round. In reality, the visitors have a strong chance of avoiding defeat. First, Hapoel have chronic defensive problems: in official matches they have conceded three times in the Israeli Super Cup and twice in the Champions League, and in both cases the opponents created fewer expected goals than they actually scored. Second, the Israelis are overly dependent on their key players, especially midfielder Kings Kangwa, whereas Vikingur can rely on virtually any attacking player to step up as a leader. Third, Hapoel returned to the Champions League after a six-year hiatus, and this squad simply lacks European experience. Vikingur, meanwhile, have been trying to reach the group stage for several seasons and are more accustomed to competing against established European clubs. Given the Icelanders’ form and resilience, the bet on Vikingur not to lose at 2.40 is compelling.

Goal prediction: Expect a high-scoring match. Vikingur have already scored five goals in three Champions League games, and in the league they average more than three goals per away match. Hapoel have scored in all five of their new-season matches across all competitions but have also conceded at least two goals in every one. Therefore, both teams to score – yes at 1.76 is a solid option.