Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Hapoel Tel Aviv have developed a habit of making life miserable for Italian opposition. Across five official meetings with Serie A sides, the Israeli outfit have lost only once—and that includes the goalless stalemate they ground out against Atalanta in Bergamo last week. The pattern is becoming worrying for the Nerazzurri: they have reached the knockout stages of European competition in each of the last three seasons, yet now face the very real prospect of being dumped out before the group phase even begins.

Tactical Analysis

Hapoel Tel Aviv – Low Block, Lethal Transitions

After the first leg, Hapoel enjoyed a full week without a match, but rhythm is not an issue. They have already played seven official fixtures this season, losing only one. That run includes reaching the Toto Cup final (Israel’s third-tier cup competition) and navigating two Conference League qualifiers—eliminating Ludogorets (2-0, 2-2) and Katowice (2-0, 1-2). In Bergamo, Elianiv Barda’s men parked the bus with discipline, launching only occasional vertical counterattacks. Yet they still managed to generate nearly as much quality as the hosts: 0.72 xG against 0.77 xG.

Expect the same approach at their nominal home ground—in reality, the team plays its European matches in Debrecen, Hungary. However, the counters should be sharper. On this “home” turf in the current campaign, Hapoel fire almost twice as many shots on target as they do away (8.5 per game versus 4.3). The only potential hitch is the likely absence of Stavi Turiel, who has contributed two goals and one assist in Conference League qualifying but missed the first leg through injury. New signing Douglas Owusu has not yet fully adapted to the system; last week the right flank was noticeably quieter than usual.

Atalanta – Stuttering Start Under Sarri

This Atalanta side bears little resemblance to the one that won the Europa League two years ago. Maurizio Sarri’s philosophy is taking time to settle, and the team struggles to create chances in settled possession. After the European stalemate, they edged Sassuolo 2-1 in the Serie A opener, but the performance was unconvincing. Once again, like against Hapoel, they managed less than 1.0 expected goals (0.91 xG), while the opposition (2.68 xG) deserved the three points far more.

Injury problems in defence compound the issues. Sarri is missing three centre-backs, leaving Kossounou and Scalvini as the only fit pairing. Scalvini, moreover, picked up a minor knock last week and is not at full sharpness. The brighter news is the return of Charles De Ketelaere, who played 30 minutes against Sassuolo. With the need to unlock a deep Israeli block again, the Belgian playmaker is expected to start, replacing the more direct Nicola Zalewski.

Predicted Lineups

Hapoel Tel Aviv (4-2-3-1): Tzur – Coco, Mayembo, Chico, Leidner – Falcao, Kraev – Owusu, Alkukin, Altman – Dappa Doubtful: Turiel, Boateng Head coach: Elianiv Barda

Atalanta (4-3-3): Carnesecchi – Zappacosta, Kossounou, Scalvini, Bernasconi – Pasalic, Gaetano, Ederson – De Ketelaere, Krstovic, Raspadori Out: Hin, Kristensen, Akhanor, K. Sulemana (all injured) Head coach: Maurizio Sarri

Prediction and Bet

Atalanta have been made heavy favourites in both official matches this season, yet they have failed to live up to the billing in either—a drab draw with Hapoel and a fortunate escape against Sassuolo. The odds on their opponents are again generous, and this time we recommend taking them. There is nothing to stop the Israelis from repeating the disciplined low-block approach that stumped Sarri’s men a week ago. Moreover, the Lombardy side (even under a different coach) lost all three away European ties they played in the current calendar year. Hapoel, by contrast, have won both of their nominal home games in 2026/27 Conference League qualifying. The pick is Hapoel not to lose at 2.40.

Total goals: Expect another low-scoring affair. In Debrecen, Hapoel have been even more solid defensively in this European campaign—conceding zero goals in two previous qualifying rounds on the “DVTK” pitch. Atalanta, for their part, have not exceeded 0.91 xG in either official match under Sarri. The under 2.5 goals at 2.12 is an appealing secondary option.