Heidenheim vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

This is a specially arranged friendly, designed to give Bayern Munich’s players—who returned late from their post-World Cup holidays—some much-needed match practice ahead of the German Super Cup. Heidenheim kindly agreed to participate, even though their own competitive season kicked off back in early August.

Tactical Analysis: Heidenheim’s Fragile Start

Heidenheim are embarking on their final season under the legendary Frank Schmidt, who has been at the helm since 2007. The veteran coach announced his impending departure even before the club was relegated from the top flight. This gives the squad extra motivation to earn an immediate promotion, sending their icon off on a high note. However, their start in the 2. Bundesliga has been far from convincing. In the first round, they scraped past Osnabrück (4-3) at home—a side tipped as one of the favorites for relegation—before being thrashed 4-1 by Hertha Berlin. Alarmingly, they were already 3-0 down by the 35th minute. Goalkeeper Frank Feller is under serious scrutiny, having conceded seven goals from an expected goals against (xGA) of just 4.46.

For this fixture, it makes sense to give veteran new signing Thomas Dene a chance between the sticks, as he has spent the entire summer without any competitive action. A massive rotation is expected across the board, as the first-team regulars simply do not have enough recovery time after their last match just two days ago. There is no point risking key players in a glorified training session. Even so, the quality of the side shouldn't drop dramatically, as Heidenheim boast a fairly deep and even squad.

Tactical Analysis: A Test for Upamecano, Olise, and Kane

Only two of Bayern Munich’s pre-season matches are really worth analyzing: the 2-1 win over Aston Villa during their Asia tour and the 3-1 victory against RB Leipzig in the annual friendly cup. In those games, the team featured mixed lineups, but without the heavy influx of youth players seen earlier. The return of first-team stars from their post-World Cup breaks has sharply improved the quality of play, but not everyone has gotten minutes yet—and the season opener is right around the corner.

Luis Díaz returned from vacation earlier than his attacking colleagues and has already bagged two goals. He might even be rested for the Super Cup. The same caution applies to Manuel Neuer, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich, as well as Kim Min-jae, Konrad Laimer, and Jamal Musiala, all of whom were substituted in the last game due to fitness concerns. For the first time this pre-season, Dayot Upamecano, Michael Olise, and Harry Kane are set to take the field. Vincent Kompany specifically requested this friendly to give his star players a chance to build match sharpness. They won't last the full 90 minutes, but at least half an hour of action is likely for each of them.

Predicted Lineups

Heidenheim (4-1-4-1): Dene – Mamdi, Mainka, Siersleben, Pakyarada – Zrilic – Hennrich, Kerber, Niehus, Honsak – Breunig

Out: K. Conte, S. Conte (both injured) Head Coach: Frank Schmidt

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Urbig – Boey, Upamecano, Ito, Davies – Chaves, Ndiaye – Olise, Saibari, Cardoso – Kane

Out: Min-jae, Stanišić, Laimer, Musiala, Karl, Zaragoza, Gnabry (all doubtful) Head Coach: Vincent Kompany

Referee

(No referee information was provided in the source text.)

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Bayern Munich are building momentum with every match, showing increasingly convincing performances. And this is without three key players who only returned to training last week. In theory, one might worry that Upamecano, Olise, and Kane—lacking match fitness—could slow the team down. But Díaz returned from his break in excellent shape and was instrumental in the wins over Aston Villa and Leipzig. In a competitive match, Heidenheim might have been able to fight back thanks to their superior match rhythm. However, it is highly likely that Schmidt will rest his starters and give minutes to those who have seen little action in the opening league rounds. The visitors' lineup will also be far from optimal, but it goes without saying that Bayern's second string is head and shoulders above Heidenheim's reserves. Our pick: Bayern Munich to win with a handicap of -2.5 at odds of 1.87.

Total Goals Prediction: Matches between these two sides are consistently high-scoring. In all seven encounters, no game has seen fewer than four goals. In six of those, Heidenheim scored at least twice against the Bayern goalkeeper. However, since Kompany took charge, Bayern have conceded just three goals in three head-to-head matches. And all of those were competitive fixtures. With the players feeling less pressure about the result in a friendly, we can expect another eventful and high-scoring affair. We recommend betting on total goals over 3.5.