Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kasımpaşa: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

As the Turkish Super Lig enters its third round of fixtures, all eyes are on the clash between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in Istanbul. Uzbek striker Eldor Shomurodov, already on the scoresheet in each of the opening two matchdays, will be aiming to extend his hot streak and make it three in a row.

Başakşehir’s Momentum

Başakşehir kicked off the campaign with a convincing 2-0 victory over Kocaelispor, but stumbled in the second round, losing 2-1 to Trabzonspor. Nevertheless, the team remained competitive until the final whistle and currently sit on three points with a goal difference of 3-2. Their performance against Kocaelispor was particularly dominant: they racked up 17 shots, generated an expected goals (xG) value of 1.96, and registered 24 touches inside the opposition box — compared to the visitors’ mere 0.43 xG and eight shots.

The home side also boast a commanding head‑to‑head record against Kasımpaşa. They have not lost in the last 12 meetings, securing ten wins and two draws. The most recent encounter on Başakşehir’s turf ended in a resounding 4-0 thrashing. Add to that the fact that they have already scored three times in two league outings, and the omens look positive for the hosts.

Kasımpaşa’s Resilience

Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have started the season unbeaten. A 1-1 draw with Trabzonspor was followed by a 1-0 away win against Çorum. Four points from two matches is a solid return, particularly given that in the Trabzonspor game they created 1.86 xG — almost double their opponent’s 0.85 — and fired off nine shots.

However, that same match also exposed a recurring weakness: Kasımpaşa allow opponents too many scoring opportunities. Against a Başakşehir side that has already demonstrated the ability to consistently deliver the ball into the box and generate high‑quality chances, that defensive frailty could prove costly. The visitors have also failed to beat Başakşehir in any of their last 12 meetings, a psychological barrier that will be hard to overcome.

Team News

Başakşehir enter the match without any confirmed absences; no key injuries or suspensions have been reported.

For Kasımpaşa, the only confirmed absentee is Kamil Çörekçi, who is sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury. He is not expected to return until November.

Prediction and Bet

Kasımpaşa arrive in good form and high spirits, so a straightforward home win is far from guaranteed. Nevertheless, Başakşehir appear the stronger side based on overall play, and the combination of home advantage and an overwhelming historical edge in this fixture tilts the balance firmly in their favour.

A straightforward Başakşehir victory is priced at around 1.65, a line that does not appear excessively short given the context. The hosts won their first home match of the season 2-0, generating 1.96 xG, while Kasımpaşa have not triumphed over this opponent in the last 12 attempts.

Our prediction: Başakşehir to win at odds of 1.65. We assess the probability of this outcome at 66% — any price above 1.52 would be considered a playable value.