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Kalmar vs Malmo: prediction and odds

Sweden Allsvenskan · Sweden · 20 July 2026
Kalmar logoKalmar
2:2
1st half: 2:1
20.07.2026 18:00
Malmo logoMalmo

Match events

Karl Gustafsson1:0
13′
29′
1:1Noah Åstrand John
Charlie Rosenquist2:1
33′
45′
🟨Kenan Busuladzic
47′
🟨Otto Rosengren
64′
2:2Adrian Skoimar
90′
🟨Noah Åstrand John

Match statistics: Kalmar vs Malmo

KalmarMalmo
1.17xG (expected goals)1.14
31Ball possession, %69
11Shots17
4Shots on target3
2Corners5
8Fouls15
4Offsides0
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
63Attacks141
42Dangerous attacks47

💡 Match preview Kalmar vs Malmo

With the 13th round of the Swedish Allsvenskan upon us, a fascinating clash awaits at the Guldfågeln Arena as local side Kalmar prepares to host giants Malmö. Both teams are pursuing starkly different objectives this season, but the home-field advantage for one side could prove decisive in this duel.

Tactical Analysis: Kalmar

The hosts currently occupy 12th place in the overall standings, having accumulated 13 points from 12 matches, with a goal difference of 14:17. Kalmar is the team with the most pronounced home-field syndrome in the league: they have earned all 13 of their points this season exclusively on home turf, where they boast top-tier results (four wins, one draw, and just one defeat, with a goal difference of 10:4).

Their attacking line nets an average of 1.17 actual goals per match, against an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.34. The forwards exhibit poor finishing, scoring fewer goals than the quality and quantity of chances created would suggest. Kalmar concedes 1.42 goals per game, even though opponents only create chances worth 1.34 xGA (expected goals against). The defensive unit is underperforming, allowing more costly errors than the quality of play in front of their own goal would indicate.

Tactical Analysis: Malmö

The visitors sit sixth in the championship, with 19 points from 12 rounds and a positive goal difference of 25:20. Malmö boasts an impressive squad, but on the road, the team consistently drops points, managing only three wins from six away fixtures, with a negative goal difference of 7:8.

Their attack scores 2.08 actual goals per match, compared to an expected figure of 1.34 xG. The forwards demonstrate outstanding but inconsistent finishing over the course of the season, extracting maximum value from half-chances and capitalizing on mistakes by opposing defenders and goalkeepers. Malmö concedes 1.67 goals per match, despite opponents creating chances worth only 1.51 xGA. The defensive block is underperforming, allowing more costly errors than the quality of play would suggest.

Tournament Motivation

Kalmar is motivated to extend their unbeaten home run and pull away from the relegation zone (four points clear before the round). For Malmö, this away trip is a crucial opportunity to end their slump on the road and mount a serious chase for the European places (just one point off third place before the round).

Team News and Injuries

The hosts can field an optimal lineup, including Kalmar's top scorer Rosenqvist (five goals, one assist).

Malmö's attacking line, led by the league's top scorer Botheim (10 goals, two assists), is also in full working order and ready to apply maximum pressure on the opposition's goal. However, the visitors' central defense is completely dismantled due to the simultaneous absences of Jansson (three matches, one goal) and Djuric (nine matches, one goal). The only available center-back, Zetterström (12 matches, 1,080 minutes), will have to build an emergency partnership with nominal right-back Larsen, which will critically undermine their defensive reliability.

Predicted Lineups

Kalmar: [Lineup not provided in source]

Malmö: [Lineup not provided in source]

Referee

[Referee information not provided in source]

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Kalmar to win at odds of 2.66

Statistics clearly show that Kalmar is a purely home force this season, having collected 100% of their points on their own ground. Malmö is vulnerable away from home and concedes frequently. The home side has won four of their six matches on their own stadium this season. Malmö, meanwhile, has lost two of their last three away games. Furthermore, the head-to-head history at Kalmar's ground supports this trend: in their last two official home meetings, the hosts have not lost to the giants, drawing 2-2 and securing a clean-sheet victory 1-0. Prediction: Kalmar to win at 2.66. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 38% (anything above 2.63 is playable).

Total goals prediction:

The visitors possess a cosmic attack (2.08 xG), but their leaky defense regularly gifts goals (1.67 xGA). A home-based Kalmar will gladly accept the open challenge and find their chances at the opposition's goal. Over 2.5 total goals has landed in 8 of 12 matches involving Malmö and in 6 of 12 games involving Kalmar this season. The average expected goals total in the visitors' matches is a hefty 2.85 per game. Prediction: Over 2.5 goals at 1.66. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 61% (anything above 1.64 is playable).

Match odds Kalmar vs Malmo

Result (1X2)

X3.5812.7622.41

Double chance

1X1.56X21.45121.29

Both teams to score

No2.35Yes1.51

Over

21.2532.0343.9258.61.51.152.51.663.52.534.54.655.59.4

Under

23.5431.741.1951.021.54.42.52.213.51.434.51.135.51.01

Handicap 1

0211.2121.01-14.451.51.14-1.55.35

Handicap 2

01.7611.14-13.62-28.81.51.09-1.54.45

Correct score

0:015.50:1100:213.50:3251:0111:16.41:28.81:317.51:4432:015.752:19.52:211.252:3233:0323:120.53:2253:343

Predictions for Kalmar vs Malmo

DA Dele Adekunle Result: 2odds 2.52 Lost

I am confident the away team will win. They look sharper and more organized than their opponent, and I expect that advantage to be the deciding factor. The visitors are simply the better side here.

OA Oluwaseun Ademola Result: Xodds 3.60 Won

I see these teams as evenly matched, and I'm confident neither will break the deadlock—expect a draw.

GS Gabriel Salami Over 3.5odds 2.53 Won

I confidently predict that football will remain the world's most popular sport. The core of the game—scoring more goals than the opponent through teamwork—is simple yet powerful, and it creates a cultural phenomenon that unites people across the globe. With countless leagues and tournaments thriving everywhere, there's no sign of this momentum slowing down.

WM Wale Madu Result: 2odds 2.43 Lost

I'm confident Malmö will perform well here—they consistently show stronger form in the league, and this matchup plays to their strengths. The chances are clearly in their favor.

YN Yemi Nwachukwu Over 2.5odds 1.66 Won

Both teams boast a strong expected goals index of 1.6 each, and Malmö consistently plays open, attacking football on the road. I'm confident that this combination will lead to a high-scoring match.

CL Chiamaka Lamido Handicap 1 (0)odds 1.98 Void

I’m backing Malmö with a handicap of 0 against Kalmar. Malmö have been the stronger side this season, showing consistent form and depth, while Kalmar have struggled to keep up defensively. Even away from home, Malmö’s quality should see them avoid defeat here. This bet covers a draw, so I’m confident they’ll at least get a point—and likely all three.

OS Oluwaseun Salami Corners: Result: 2odds 2.49 Won

I am confident that the visiting team will take more corner kicks in tonight's match. My analysis shows they are the stronger side and will likely dominate possession, pushing the home team deep into their own half. This aggressive play consistently forces defenders to clear the ball, leading to a higher corner count for the visitors.

TL Titi Lawal Handicap 2 (0)odds 1.81 Void

I'm confident Malmö will win this match against Kalmar. They've been head and shoulders stronger in previous encounters, so the outcome is clear.

FE Femi Ekwueme Result: Xodds 3.62 Won

I'm betting on Malmö to win or draw against Kalmar. The visitors have been performing well in away matches, showing solid form on the road. I expect them to hold their own and avoid defeat here.

AI Ayodele Ibe Over 3.5odds 2.53 Won

I’m confident that Squid will score heavily at home, making a high total very likely here. The stats and recent form back this up clearly—expect plenty of goals.

JK Joseph Kalu Corners: Over 10.5odds 1.84 Lost

My prediction is that this match will see plenty of corners. The attacking styles of both teams, combined with their tendency to launch crosses from the flanks, create a perfect setup for a high corner count. I expect the tempo to be fast and the ball to be played wide often, leading to repeated defensive clearances and set-piece opportunities. You can count on the total number of corners clearing the market line.

YA Yusuf Akintola Result: 2odds 2.46 Lost

I confidently predict that Malmö will secure at least a draw in this away match. Their recent performances on the road have been solid, showing tactical discipline and resilience. The team has proven they can handle pressure away from home, and I expect them to continue that trend here.

NO Nneka Ojo Corners: Over 11.5odds 2.31 Lost

I'm betting on over 9.5 corners in the Kalmar vs Malmö match. Both teams are aggressive in attack and consistently generate a high volume of corner kicks. With Kalmar at home and Malmö pushing forward, we should see plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

VB Victoria Bello Over 2.5odds 1.65 Won

I’m confident this will be a high-scoring game. Kalmar are a pure home side—every point they have came at home, and they’ve scored in 5 of 6 matches there, averaging 1.66 goals per game. They’ve also been tough for Malmö at home in the last two seasons, never losing and always finding the net. With Malmö’s defense weakened by Djuric’s suspension, Kalmar’s attack should have no trouble scoring.

Malmö have rediscovered their form under the new coach, winning consistently and looking dangerous in attack. Botheim has been unstoppable, with a goal or assist in each of the last six matches, and the young talents are contributing regularly. But their defense remains shaky, especially away from home, and missing their main center-back makes them vulnerable. I expect both teams to score, and with the attacking quality on display, the total goals should go over 2.5.

CO Collins Olawale Under 2.5odds 2.23 Lost

I’m predicting Under 2.5 goals in the Malmö vs. Kalmar match. Both teams have been involved in low-scoring affairs recently, and their head-to-head history also leans toward fewer goals. Defensive setups and cautious approaches are likely to dominate, making a high-scoring game unlikely. I’m confident this will stay under the 2.5 goal line.

SS Suleiman Sani Result: 2odds 2.46 Lost

I'm trusting my gut and backing Malmö in today's match. I feel strongly that they'll get the result.

TA Titi Adekunle Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.36 Won

I predict both teams will score in the first half. They'll come out looking to play on even terms, and each will find the back of the net once.

CO Collins Ojo Result: 2odds 2.33 Lost

I’m predicting Malmö to edge out a narrow 0-1 win against Kalmar. There’s a clear gap in quality between the sides, and Malmö’s defense looks solid enough to neutralize Kalmar’s attack while they find a breakthrough. The visitors are simply the stronger team, and I expect them to get the job done.

CB Chioma Bankole Handicap 1 (0)odds 2.04 Void

The Squid haven't lost at home in a long time, and I'm confident they'll extend that streak. Their form and crowd support are too strong to break now.

OO Obinna Onyeka Result: 2odds 2.38 Lost

I’m confident Malmö will take the win away at Kalmar. Their squad depth and form are far superior, and they’ve dominated this fixture historically. Kalmar’s inconsistent defense won’t hold up against Malmö’s attacking pressure. A straight away win is the smart play here.

NS Nnamdi Sani Result: 1odds 2.80 Lost

I'm predicting Malmö to win here. Kalmar's home winning streak is decent, but Malmö is the stronger side overall and should have enough quality to take all three points.

HG Hauwa Garba Result: Xodds 3.62 Won

I predict a draw because the teams are evenly matched—both will work hard, leading to a stalemate.

AD Adaeze Danjuma Result: 2odds 2.38 Lost

I predict Malmö will win this match. They have a strong home record and their attacking form has been consistent, giving them a clear edge over the opposition. The team’s recent performances show they can control the game and create scoring chances, which should be enough to secure the victory.

WA Wale Afolabi Over 2.5odds 1.65 Won

I predict this match will see a high number of goals, based on Forbes' analysis. The reasoning is clear: both teams have strong attacking records and weak defenses, which historically leads to open, high-scoring games. I'm confident this trend will hold, so expect multiple goals on the scoreboard.

CE Chinedu Eze Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.36 Won

I'm confident both teams will combine for over 2 goals in the first half. The attacking talent on display and the high-pressing styles suggest an early flurry of chances, making this a strong bet.

BA Bukola Ademola Over 3.5odds 2.50 Won

I’m backing Kalmar here because they’re simply too strong for Malmö. Malmö won’t be able to create any real danger against Kalmar’s defense, and their attack will be completely shut down. Kalmar’s power and form make this a straightforward win.

FO Femi Okonkwo Team 2 over 1.5odds 2.02 Won

I am confident that the away team will look much livelier in this match and should score more goals. Their attacking form and energy give them the clear edge in this matchup.

CO Chukwuma Olawale Over 3odds 2.03 Won

I believe this matchup will see a lot of goals, and both teams will score. The attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides make an open, high-scoring game the most likely outcome. I'm confident in backing goals from both teams.

SO Sani Obiora Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.84 Lost

I'm confident the second half of this match will be very high-scoring. The teams are set to push hard after the break, leading to plenty of goals.

RO Ronke Ogunleye Result: Xodds 3.58 Won

I believe today's match will end in a draw. Both teams are evenly matched, and I expect a tight, competitive game with few clear chances. The result should be a stalemate.

RY Ronke Yusuf Result: 2odds 2.41 Lost

I'm confident Malmö is a cut above their opponent today. Their class and quality will make the difference, so I'm backing them to come out on top.

SS Suleiman Suleiman Result: Xodds 3.58 Won

I am confident this match ends in a draw. Both teams are evenly matched with solid defenses and a tendency to cancel each other out, making a winner unlikely.

KA Kayode Adeyemi Result: 2odds 2.41 Lost

I’m confident the away team will win this match by a narrow margin. They simply need this victory more than the hosts do.

Match poster

Kalmar vs Malmo — odds