Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and odds

The home side are desperate to bounce back from a disappointing start to the campaign and claim their first victory of the season, while the visitors will look to build on a positive draw in the opening round. Septemvri Sofia are clearly outmatched in terms of squad strength and rightfully enter this clash as underdogs. Lokomotiv Plovdiv, on the other hand, impressed in their defeat to Ludogorets. Can the hosts finally bag all three points this time around?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Last season, Lokomotiv turned in a highly respectable campaign, finishing fifth in the Conference League playoff group with 55 points. The new First League term began with a tough away test, where they fell narrowly 0–1 to the mighty Ludogorets. Yet, on the balance of play, the Plovdiv side looked the better team – they fired six shots on target (against the opponent’s two) and earned three corners compared to Ludogorets’ five. In July, the team showcased effective, pragmatic football in friendlies, recording commanding clean-sheet wins over Rilski Sportist (2–0) and Arda (2–0). Lokomotiv are traditionally strong on home soil and rarely drop points against sides from the lower half of the table.

Septemvri Sofia

Last season was an extremely tough slog for the capital club – they fought tooth and nail to avoid relegation in the relegation group, eventually finishing 13th with 36 points. Only a play-off victory over lowly Yantra kept them in the top flight. In the new championship’s opening round, Septemvri shared the spoils at home against Arda (1–1). Their summer friendlies were a mixed bag: they beat Hebar (2–1) and Vihren (2–0), but lost to Slavia (2–3) and Ludogorets (0–1). The visitors try to squeeze every point they can, but they clearly lack the strength to hold their own against stronger opposition.

Tournament Motivation

Lokomotiv need to collect three points in this home fixture to avoid falling behind the leading pack right from the start of the campaign. Septemvri arrive in Plovdiv with the clear intention of playing on the counter and trying to snatch at least a point.

Injury Situation

Lokomotiv’s treatment room contains injured defenders Espinoza and Ruskov, but this is no major headache for the coaching staff, as they have reliable replacements in Rain, Chindrish, and Petkovic. Septemvri’s camp is in perfect shape – no losses whatsoever, and every player is ready for this tough away battle.

Prediction and Bet

The results from last season and the clear gap in class point to a dominant evening for the hosts. Lokomotiv consistently finish in the upper half of the table and play with authority on their own turf. Septemvri are the league’s underdogs, who find it extremely hard to get results on the road against top-tier opponents. That opening defeat to Ludogorets will only add extra fire in Plovdiv’s belly, and backed by their own fans, they have every chance to take the win. Pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at 1.71. We assess the likelihood of this outcome at 60% (anything above 1.62 is playable).

Total goals prediction: The recent encounters of the home side clearly highlight a low-scoring trend. Lokomotiv prefer a pragmatic approach – they lost 0–1 in the first round and won both summer friendlies by exactly two goals (2–0, 2–0). Septemvri, away against a high‑status opponent, will set up a compact defence and try to dry out the game, just like they did in their recent friendly against Ludogorets (0–1) and in the first round against Arda (1–1). Expect a tactical battle with few clear‑cut chances. Pick: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85. We estimate the probability of this hitting at 57% (anything above 1.75 is playable).