Monza vs Sassuolo: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Monza have yet to secure a single league win under Ivan Juric, but the Brianza outfit welcome a historically obliging opponent in the fifth round. Sassuolo sit higher up the Italian football pyramid, yet in their last three Serie A meetings with the Lombardy side, they have failed to collect even a single point.

Tactical Analysis

Monza: Too Open for a Bottom‑Table Side

Ivan Juric has instilled a surprisingly bold style in Monza, pressing opponents aggressively in their own half and carving out plenty of chances. The hosts average 1.78 xG per match – the sixth‑best mark in Serie A, ahead of Juventus, Milan, Napoli and Atalanta. However, that attacking output has translated into just one point from four games, leaving them in the relegation zone. The Biancorossi simply lack the necessary quality in the final third, and even Lecce (3‑2) found it easy to exploit space on the counter against them. The main culprit in last round’s defeat to a direct rival was their inability to defend set‑pieces – two headers from corners inside the first 11 minutes.

Injuries have also taken their toll. Riccardo Manzari (Mangash), one of Monza’s key men who contributed goals or assists in three of the first four matches, will miss the game before the international break. Meanwhile, Euro 2020 winner Matteo Pessina remains sidelined, and his absence in central midfield is deeply felt – Akinsanmiro and Folorunsho do well in building attacks but have never been strong at stopping counter‑attacks.

Sassuolo: An Attack‑Minded Force

Sassuolo have long carried the reputation of “giant‑killers” in Italy, and it was the Neroverdi who pulled off the biggest shock of the previous round by beating Juventus 3‑2 at home. Against the country’s most decorated club, Alberto Aquilani did not abandon his trademark attacking philosophy, and in an end‑to‑end game, his side proved sharper in the finishing zone. That result extended Sassuolo’s unbeaten run to three Serie A matches, and even in their opening‑day defeat to Atalanta (1‑2), they significantly outperformed the Europa League side on expected goals – 2.74 xG vs 0.86.

The Emilia‑Romagna outfit boast an excellent collection of attacking and midfield talent for a mid‑table side. The absence of last season’s leader Ismaël Koné, who has been in the treatment room since the start of the campaign, is therefore not felt as acutely. However, everything behind that line is more typical of the lower half of the table: goalkeeper Arijanet Muric, who is only good with his feet, and a mediocre defence. After the sale of Tarik Muharemovic, the club’s leading defender became Jay Idzes, but he too is injured and will miss the match.

Predicted Lineups

Monza (3‑4‑2‑1): Tian – Quadio, Lucchèsi, Carboni – Birindelli, Akinsanmiro, Folorunsho, Bakuwe – Colombo, É. Ceballos – Varela Out: Pessina, Ziolkowski, Touré, Manzari (all injured) Head coach: Ivan Juric

Sassuolo (4‑3‑3): Muric – Cinquegrana, Ćaleta‑Car, Leijsen, Doig – Adžić, Matić, Bacolla – Berardi, Esposito, Lauriente Out: Boloca, Pierangeli, Kande, I. Koné, Valukevich, Volpato, Idzes, J. Paz (all injured) Head coach: Alberto Aquilani

Referee

Daniele Perenzoni has taken charge of only seven Serie A matches so far. The average number of yellow cards in those games was 3.57. Lately, however, Perenzoni has been slightly more lenient – in only two of his last nine official fixtures did he issue more than three bookings.

Prediction and Bet

Main call – Sassuolo to win at 2.33 Sassuolo have looked outstanding at the start of the season, and such a high price for an away victory over one of the league’s weakest sides is very tempting. They will face a Monza side whose squad is low‑quality by Serie A standards, and Juric’s attempts to implement his trademark high‑press have so far been only partially successful. The Neroverdi are excellent at playing out of pressure and can easily tear apart even superior teams on the counter – just ask the Juventus players. As shown by Monza’s match against Lecce, set‑pieces will also be an effective weapon; Aquilani’s men have scored from dead‑ball situations in half of their Serie A games. Therefore, backing a Sassuolo win at 2.33 looks like the best option.

Goals prediction – Both teams to score at 1.66 This fixture is unlikely to lack goals at both ends. Monza and Sassuolo are attack‑oriented sides ranking in the top six of the league for average expected goals – 1.78 and 1.81 xG respectively. Given that this market has hit in all eight of their Serie A matches combined, a confident pick is both teams to score at 1.66.