Napoli vs Aris: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Napoli round off their pre-season training camp in Castel di Sangro with a friendly against a once-great Greek side that has long since fallen from the continental spotlight. Aris will focus solely on domestic football this season, and their recent record against Italian opposition is grim: four defeats in their last five meetings with Serie A clubs.

Tactical Analysis: Napoli

Massimiliano Allegri is no stranger to reshaping a team inherited from Antonio Conte – he did exactly that with Juventus back in 2014. Now he faces a similar task at Napoli, and the early signs from this summer’s friendlies are mixed but promising. For the second year running, the Partenopei kicked off their preparations with a loss, this time 3-1 to Arezzo. That defeat remains their only blemish, however. Since then, they’ve beaten Carrarese (2-0) and Osasuna (2-1) and held Celta Vigo to a 1-1 draw – a side that has qualified for the Europa League.

Heavy squad rotation, typical of pre-season, hasn’t disrupted their rhythm. Allegri’s reputation as a defensive pragmatist is well-earned, but his Napoli have created chances and scored in every summer outing so far. No new signings have arrived yet, but the existing squad looks deep enough to compete in Serie A. Lorenzo Lucca, written off by the previous coach, has impressed as a centre-forward and could be a reliable backup for Rasmus Hojlund. Romelu Lukaku, on the other hand, is no longer part of the plans and is expected to move to Turkey. One defensive departure has already happened: Miguel Gutiérrez, who left for Bayer Leverkusen – a logical move given that a back four leaves little room for the Spaniard.

Tactical Analysis: Aris

Aris are hardly a giant even by Greek football standards. Their last trophy came in the previous century, and last season they finished a lowly eighth – their worst placing since 2014. Yet head coach Michalis Grigoriou has kept his job, and the club’s pre-season results have given fans genuine optimism. After a 2-2 draw with Panserraikos, the Thessaloniki side surprised everyone by beating Monza 3-1, a team fresh from promotion to Serie A.

In the spring, Aris played cautious, defence-first football. In these two friendlies, they’ve been far more adventurous. Their headline summer signing is controversial Sevilla striker Rafa Mir, who arrived on loan and made his debut as a substitute against Panserraikos. He is expected to start here, as is new defensive midfielder Tom Dele-Bashiru from Watford, brought in to add physicality and tenacity in the centre of the park.

Predicted Lineups

Napoli (4-3-3):

• Meret – Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Marin, Spinazzola – Zambo-Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay – Politano, Hojlund, A. Santos

Unavailable: Gilmour, Buongiorno, Marianucci (all injured), Lukaku (not in squad) Head coach: Massimiliano Allegri

Aris (4-2-3-1):

• Majkic – Fadiga, Fabiano, Kamtsis, Marco Kerkez – Racic, Dele-Bashiru – Garre, Jensen, Donis – Mir

Unavailable: Dioudis, Kouame (both injured) Head coach: Michalis Grigoriou

Prediction and Bet

Main bet: Napoli to win with a -1.5 handicap Aris have already beaten a Serie A side this pre-season, but Monza are a different proposition from Napoli. The Partenopei boast a far more balanced and deep squad, allowing them to maintain high tempo and quality even after substitutions. Aris, by contrast, have shown signs of fatigue in the second half of their friendlies, even in the matches they won. Moreover, the Greeks are unaccustomed to playing top European clubs. Last season they faced Olympiacos, Panathinaikos, AEK, and PAOK domestically and failed to win any of those ten matches. Napoli’s class should tell, making a -1.5 handicap a logical pick.

Secondary bet: Both teams to score Keeping a clean sheet will be tougher for Napoli. Aris have already scored five goals in two friendlies, showing genuine threat in attack. Napoli themselves have only kept one clean sheet in four summer friendlies. Both sides have found the net with regularity, so backing both to score offers strong appeal.