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Panevezys vs Tobol: prediction and odds

Europe Conference League · Europe · 23 July 2026
Panevezys logoPanevezys
1:1
1st half: 1:0
23.07.2026 16:30
Tobol logoTobol

Match events

Valdas Paulauskas🟨
22′
35′
🟨Jorge Luis Guerra
Seydine Keita1:0
45′
Seydine Keita🟨
45′
Kwadwo Asamoah🟨
58′
Parfait Bizoza🟨
63′
84′
1:1Nemanja Cavnić
86′
🟨Uroš Milovanović

Match statistics: Panevezys vs Tobol

PanevezysTobol
38Ball possession, %62
9Shots18
4Shots on target7
6Corners9
16Fouls11
2Offsides3
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
81Attacks100
42Dangerous attacks81

💡 Match preview Panevezys vs Tobol

The Lithuanian champions Panevezys host Kazakhstan's Tobol in the first leg of the second qualifying round for the UEFA Conference League. This encounter pits two sides that are mired in deep systemic crises within their domestic leagues. Yet the international stage offers both a chance to redeem themselves in the eyes of their supporters.

Tactical Analysis: Panevezys – A Collapse in the Domestic League and Bleak Results

Panevezys approach their European campaign in a dreadful state. The club that won the Lithuanian A-Liga title in 2023 now languishes in 8th place out of ten teams, having collected just 19 points from 20 matches with a shocking goal difference of 18:37. Their home form is equally alarming: four defeats in their last five league fixtures at their own ground. The root of this collapse lies largely in disastrous transfer policy and the loss of key players just before the start of European competition. The team lost its main striker and top scorer, Smith, as well as the vital creative central midfielder de Vega. To replace them, the club signed high-profile but still unintegrated newcomers: Ramanauskas arrived as a free agent from Banga to bolster the defensive midfield, and Kurtsev joined from Džiugas to play on the attacking flank. The lack of chemistry following these changes has immediately affected results: only one victory in the last eight matches, with the nadir being a sensational cup exit to Minija, a side from the lower division, losing 1:2.

In European competition, Panevezys do not boast a rich history, but in the 2024/25 campaign they managed to reach the playoff round of the Conference League qualifiers, sensationally eliminating Finnish giants HJK from the Champions League qualifiers. However, the current Lithuanian squad is light-years away from the form they showed two years ago.

Tactical Analysis: Tobol – Away-Day Blues Despite Solid European Pedigree

Kostanay-based Tobol are also enduring a difficult period in the Kazakhstan Premier League, sitting 9th in the table with 19 points after 18 rounds. The coaching staff's biggest headache is their form on the road. Tobol have failed to win away in five consecutive matches (two draws and three defeats), regularly conceding soft goals in the closing stages of games. During the off-season, the club suffered a notable loss on the attacking flank as right winger Chesnokov departed. To fill the gaps and add squad depth, the management worked actively in the market. They bought the powerful defensive midfielder Cisse, and signed right winger Luis Guerra, defender Khvalko, and midfielder Myakish as free agents. These transfers are intended to bring balance and reliability to the center of the pitch.

Nevertheless, the Kazakh club possesses a far more substantial European pedigree. In the 2023/24 Conference League campaign, Tobol staged an impressive rally, reaching the playoff round of qualifying after high-profile victories over Swiss side Basel and Irish club Derry City. This accumulated European experience and the generally higher class of their players remain the visitors' main trump cards in the upcoming duel.

Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam (Norway)

The match will be officiated by Norwegian referee Mohammad Usman Aslam. In the 2025/26 season, the referee has worked 15 official matches across all competitions, showing 75 yellow cards (an average of exactly 5.0 per game) and awarding 7 penalties. In Conference League qualifying, the Norwegian officiates with extreme strictness: in the single match he has handled so far, he issued 8 yellow cards and pointed to the spot. Aslam harshly punishes the breaking up of attacks and rough challenges in duels. Given the defensive frailties of both teams and the lack of cohesion in their revamped squads, this will inevitably lead to a high number of fouls.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Tobol to Win at Odds of 2.14

Despite their poor away results in the Kazakh league, a Tobol side reinforced by new transfers looks far superior to a completely disorganized Panevezys. The Lithuanian club has lost its main attacking force in Smith, is in a prolonged slump, and is losing even to bottom-feeders in its domestic championship. The Kostanay side outclass the hosts in quality, have strengthened their defensive midfield effectively, and carry substantial European experience. Prediction: victory for Tobol at 2.14. We assess the probability of this outcome at 48% (anything above 2.08 is playable).

Total Goals Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals at Odds of 2.23

The defensive lines of both teams this season resemble a turnstile. Panevezys at home consistently concede two or three goals against opponents of any level, while Tobol have failed to keep a clean sheet away from home in five consecutive matches. Moreover, the new attacking players on both sides will be eager to prove themselves, and Norwegian referee Aslam – with his seven penalties this season – could add extra fire to the game with a spot kick. Expect an open contest with defensive errors and goals. Prediction: total match goals over 2.5 at 2.23. We assess the probability of this outcome at 45% (anything above 2.22 is playable).

Match odds Panevezys vs Tobol

Result (1X2)

X3.4413.2422.14

Double chance

1X1.67X21.32121.29

Both teams to score

No1.77Yes1.92

Over

11.0421.6233.34480.51.011.51.352.52.243.54.154.58.9

Under

17.222.131.2641.020.58.91.52.752.51.623.51.164.51.01

Handicap 1

02.3511.24-16.51.51.14-1.57.8

Handicap 2

01.5511.05-13.361.51.03-1.54.45

Correct score

0:08.80:15.750:29.10:320.51:07.61:15.751:28.41:3202:015.52:1112:216.252:3353:0433:1333:246

Predictions for Panevezys vs Tobol

KO Kunle Oyelaran Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.92 Won

I'm confident both teams will score. The attacking firepower on each side is too strong to be kept quiet, and defensive vulnerabilities suggest goals at both ends. This bet aligns perfectly with the match dynamics.

RM Ronke Musa Yellow cards: Over 4.5odds 2.23 Won

I'm betting on the over for yellow cards in this match. The referee's historical stats consistently show a high number of bookings, so I'm confident this trend continues. It's a solid play worth taking.

FA Femi Afolabi Under 1.5odds 2.70 Lost

I expect a low-scoring game here. This is a closely matched pair playing their first match, which often leads to cautious, defensive play. Both sides will prioritize not losing over taking risks, so I'm betting on a tight, low-total outcome.

SB Sani Balogun Yellow cards: Under 4odds 1.85 Lost

I'm betting on under 4 yellow cards in this matchup. The referee for this game has a history of letting play flow and issuing fewer cards, averaging just over 3 per match this season. Both teams are disciplined defensively and rarely resort to tactical fouls, so I expect a clean, low-card affair.

GI Grace Idris Under 2odds 2.07 Void

I predict this match will see few goals. Both teams are unlikely to produce a high-scoring affair, as their recent form and defensive setups suggest a tight, low-scoring contest. The bet is on under 2.5 total goals.

JO Joseph Oladipo Yellow cards: Result: 2odds 2.60 Lost

I'm backing Panevėžys to win the yellow card battle against Tobol. Home teams typically get more cards in European qualifiers due to crowd pressure and a more aggressive approach, and Panevėžys have the edge in physicality and pressing intensity. Tobol's disciplined style should keep their count lower, making the hosts the clear side to back here.

NB Nnamdi Bello Over 2odds 1.64 Void

I'm betting on over 2 total goals in this match. Both teams will push the score past that mark.

NO Nneka Ojo Over 2.5odds 2.26 Lost

Panevezys hosts Tobol, and I'm confident this match will see at least three goals. I'm placing my bet on over 2.5 goals.

CA Comfort Adeyemi Under 1.5odds 2.70 Lost

I'm confident that both teams will continue to struggle with finishing their scoring chances. Their inability to convert clear opportunities is a persistent issue that won't resolve quickly, so expect more of the same inefficiency in front of goal.

UO Usman Okonkwo Yellow cards: Over 3.5odds 1.56 Won

I'm predicting at least four yellow cards in the Panewežys vs Tobol match. Both teams have shown aggressive defensive styles in recent games, and with high stakes in this fixture, I expect frequent fouls and a strict referee. The betting lines support this, and the pattern of past encounters between similar-tier clubs suggests a card-heavy outcome. This is a confident call—don't expect a clean game.

WA Wale Adekunle Over 2.5odds 2.26 Lost

This match is tough for both clubs, but I'm confidently betting on over 2.5 total goals. The pressure on both sides will lead to mistakes and chances, so I expect the scoreline to reflect that.

OS Obinna Sowole Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.94 Won

I'm betting on Both Teams to Score in this match. Both sides have been weak in defense, so I'm confident we'll see goals at both ends.

MS Michael Sowole Correct score 1:2odds 8.40 Lost

I predict the final score will be 1:2. The attacking side has been consistently stronger in recent matchups, and their defensive setup is well-suited to counter the opponent's key threats. While the underdog will likely find the net once, they won't hold off the pressure for the full 90 minutes.

UA Usman Anyanwu Under 0.5odds 8.60 Lost

I believe this match will stay under 0.5 goals. The defensive setups are strong, and both teams prioritize structure over risk-taking in the final third. Recent form shows low-scoring trends, and key attackers are either out of form or missing. I expect a tight, cautious game with few clear chances.

KF Kingsley Fashola Double chance: X2odds 1.31 Won

I’m confident this prediction will be realized. The reasoning is clear and straightforward, and I’m betting on it.

HG Hauwa Garba Result: 2odds 2.12 Lost

I'm backing the favorite to win this match. The data clearly supports their superior form and head-to-head record, so I see no reason to overthink it. Betting on the stronger side is the straightforward play here.

PO Patience Ogundipe Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.93 Won

I'm confident both teams will score here. The odds are solid, and each side has the quality to put at least one goal past the other. Expect an open game with goals at both ends.

UE Uche Eze Corners: Under 9.5odds 1.86 Lost

I'm predicting that the total corners in the Panewezys vs. Tobol match will go over 9.5. Both teams are coming into this game with an attacking mindset, looking to secure a win, which should lead to plenty of offensive actions and corner opportunities. Given their styles, I expect an open, end-to-end contest with enough set-piece chances to clear this line confidently.

CB Chioma Bankole Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.93 Won

I'm confident both Panevėžys and Tobol will score in this match. Each team has found the net in every one of their last five games, and that kind of attacking consistency doesn't just disappear. Expect both sides to keep their scoring streaks alive.

KM Kabiru Musa Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I am backing Tobol to win this match. Their recent form and home advantage give them a clear edge, and I see no reason to doubt their ability to secure the three points. Expect a confident, controlled performance from the start.

IB Ikechukwu Bello Corners: Under 9.5odds 1.86 Lost

I’m betting there’s a decent chance they’ll get bogged down in the middle of the cage — neither side will dominate from the corners. It’s a pairing where both styles push for central control rather than angle play, so I see them grinding it out in the pocket rather than circling the edge.

DI David Igwe Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I believe Tobol will be stronger than their opponent and will take the win. Their recent form and squad depth give them a clear edge, and I expect them to control the match from start to finish.

MI Michael Igwe Under 0.5 (1st half)odds 2.72 Lost

I predict this will be a boring match. Both teams are playing cautiously, and recent form suggests low scoring and few chances. There’s little incentive to take risks, so expect a slow, uneventful game.

TA Tunde Akintola Double chance: 1Xodds 1.69 Won

I predict Tobol will lose. They are simply too weak to compete at this level.

KA Kayode Abubakar Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.88 Won

I am confident that Panevezys will both score and concede in their next home match. This pattern has held in 6 of their last 7 home games, making it a reliable trend to back.

MA Mercy Abubakar Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I predict the second-place contender will win. They have the momentum and key advantages that put them ahead.

CM Chibuzo Madu Both teams to score — Noodds 1.80 Lost

I confidently predict that this match will end with either a 0-0 draw or just one goal scored. The teams are evenly matched, so there's little chance of a high-scoring game—my bet is on under 1.5 total goals.

DM David Musa Over 1.5odds 1.33 Won

Based on the teams' stats, the total goals scored between them is clearly trending high. I'm confident this match will see plenty of action on the scoreboard.

BM Bukola Madu Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

On July 23 at 18:30, I confidently predict Panewežys vs Tobol to end 0-1. Tobol will score the only goal of the match.

SE Sunday Emenike Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I'm backing Tobol to win away. Their attack looks strong and has been impressive lately.

JA Joy Adewale Corners: Team 2 under 5odds 1.80 Lost

I expect a low number of corners in this match, especially from the away side. Their playing style isn't suited to generating many set-piece opportunities, and the home team's defense should keep them contained.

SO Segun Oladipo Under 1.5odds 2.85 Lost

I don't expect a high-scoring game here. The numbers point to a tight, low-scoring affair, so I'm backing the under.

KT Kelechi Tanko Over 2odds 1.58 Void

I'm betting that this match will see at least 2 goals. Both teams have shown consistent attacking form recently, and their defensive records suggest they'll struggle to keep a clean sheet. The head-to-head history also supports this, with most meetings producing multiple goals. I'm confident this trend continues.

IO Ifeanyi Ogunleye Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.88 Won

Neither Panevėžys nor Tobol are setting their leagues on fire. With defenses that are wide open—where even my grandmother could get a look if she were younger—I see a goal exchange as inevitable, since both sides have the attackers to make it happen. My prediction: both teams to score.

FK Fatima Kalu Corners: Team 1 over 4.5odds 1.94 Won

Tobol will get at least 5 corners. They’re aggressive in attack and will push forward, especially if they’re chasing the game or playing at home. Their style forces defenders to clear the ball, and that adds up quickly. I’m confident they’ll hit that mark.

ZW Zainab Waziri Handicap 1 (0)odds 2.35 Void

I am confident that the home side will secure the win here. They are simply more resilient and technically superior to their opponents, which gives them a clear edge in this matchup. Expect them to dominate possession and create the better chances, ultimately coming out on top.

KA Kingsley Adeyemi Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

Tobol is playing strong, and I’m confident they’ll secure a quick victory in today’s match. Their form speaks for itself.

SA Samuel Adebayo Over 2.5odds 2.17 Lost

I'm confidently backing over 2.5 goals in Panevezys vs Tobol. Both teams have shown they can score and defend poorly, so I expect this match to produce at least three goals.

PM Peter Musa Under 2odds 2.17 Void

I am confident that this match will not see high productivity because there is simply no one to score. The lack of capable scorers ensures a low-scoring outcome.

YO Yetunde Olaniyan Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

Tobol’s two recent wins give them the momentum and confidence to overpower Panevezys. I’m betting they’ll control the tempo and come out on top.

GO Gloria Oni Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I’m confident Toole will pull out the win in this tough match. The matchup is challenging, but their form and mental edge get the job done.

SI Suleiman Ibe Under 2.5odds 1.66 Won

Panevezys are aggressive at home, but I see Tobol as the more organized side. The Kazakh club knows how to grind out results in European competition and rarely loses to opponents of this level. I'm backing Tobol to avoid defeat.

CY Chioma Yusuf Under 1.5odds 2.90 Lost

I'm confident that in this matchup, scoring goals will be tougher than keeping a clean sheet. That's why I'm backing at least one team to fail to score—the "Both Teams to Score – No" bet is the clear play here.

CO Chidinma Oni Over 2.5odds 2.17 Lost

I’m confident this match will see over 2.5 total goals. Both teams have the attacking quality to find the net, and their recent form suggests an open, high-scoring affair. I expect them to combine for at least three goals, so backing the over is the smart play.

AS Aliyu Sowole Both teams to score — Noodds 1.80 Lost

I'm confident that neither Panevezys nor Tobol will score in this match. Both sides lack the attacking quality to break through, so I'm backing a goalless draw.

AK Ayodele Kalu Handicap 1 (0)odds 2.35 Void

I'm backing Panevėžys with a handicap of 0 here. The home advantage should be the deciding factor in this matchup, giving them the edge to avoid defeat.

GA Gift Akintola Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I'm backing Panevezys to win. Tobol has much more experience in European matches, but I'm confident the away side will come out on top.

SF Segun Fashola Result: 2odds 2.11 Lost

I'm confident Tobol is the stronger team in this matchup. Now let's see if they deliver on that class advantage.

IY Ifeanyi Yusuf Corners: Result: 2odds 1.84 Won

I predict Tobol will win the corner kick count in this match. Their aggressive attacking style and constant pressure in the final third should generate more set-piece opportunities than their opponent.

GE Gift Eze Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.88 Won

I am confident both teams will go all out to score, making this a high-scoring and productive match. The attacking intent from both sides is clear, and I expect goals to flow freely, ensuring an entertaining affair.

JO Joy Obi Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.87 Won

I'm betting against Paņevežys and Tobol. They look extremely weak and will be eliminated very quickly.

AA Anthony Abdullahi Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.87 Won

I'm predicting both teams to score here. Neither side has a strong defense—both are conceding goals regularly. The attacking talent on display makes it highly likely we'll see goals at both ends.

IO Ibrahim Ogunleye Team 2 over 1.5odds 2.34 Lost

I predict that in today's match, the Kazakh team will score more than one goal. Their attacking form has been sharp, and the opponent's defense has shown clear vulnerabilities recently. I'm confident they'll find the net at least twice.

WA Wale Afolabi Corners: Result: 1odds 2.59 Lost

I'm backing the home team to win the corner count in this matchup. They have the tactical advantage and the crowd behind them, so I expect them to dominate from set pieces and dead-ball situations.

BS Babatunde Shehu Over 1 (1st half)odds 2.03 Void

I'm confident there will be at least one goal in the first half, so I'm playing it.

AA Amina Abiodun Over 2.5odds 2.24 Lost

Neither team is impressing in their national championships, but I still expect their head-to-head clash to be an entertaining one. I'm confident the total goals will exceed 2.5.

BA Babatunde Adamu Corners: Team 1 over 4.5odds 1.99 Won

I confidently predict that Tobol will allow opponents to execute a high volume of set pieces. This weakness is a consistent pattern in their play, and I expect it to continue.

DO David Okoro Double chance: 1Xodds 1.67 Won

I confidently predict that Panevėžys will not lose in their home match against Tobol. The home field advantage and their solid defensive record make a loss unlikely.

Match poster

Panevezys vs Tobol — odds

❓ Frequently asked questions

When and where is the Panevezys vs Tobol match?

The match is the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round, scheduled for 23 July 2026 at 16:30 (local time).

Who is the favorite according to the preview?

Tobol is considered the favorite despite their poor away form, with a main prediction of Tobol to win at odds of 2.14.

What are the key team form and recent results?

Panevezys are in deep crisis: 8th in the Lithuanian league, with only one win in their last eight matches and four home defeats in five. Tobol are 9th in Kazakhstan and winless in five away games (two draws, three losses).

Are there any important player absences or new signings?

Panevezys lost top scorer Smith and creative midfielder de Vega, while signing Ramanauskas and Kurtsev. Tobol lost right winger Chesnokov and brought in Cisse, Luis Guerra, Khvalko, and Myakish.

What is the main betting prediction for this match?

The main prediction is a Tobol win at odds of 2.14. Additionally, over 2.5 total goals is recommended at 2.23 due to weak defenses and a strict referee.

Who is the referee and how does he officiate?

Norwegian referee Mohammad Usman Aslam will officiate. He averages 5 yellow cards per game and has awarded 7 penalties this season, often punishing fouls harshly.