PAOK vs Dynamo Kyiv: prediction and odds

The first leg of the second qualifying round of the Europa League between PAOK and Dynamo Kyiv ended in a 3-2 victory for the Greeks. Now, the Ukrainian side faces a daunting task: they must overturn a one-goal deficit in Thessaloniki to keep their hopes of advancing in the tournament alive. Alessio Lisci’s men have already demonstrated their ability to punish defensive errors and exploit fast breaks, and the roaring support of their home crowd will be an additional weapon. Can the visitors turn the tie around, or will the hosts continue their European journey?

Tactical Analysis: PAOK – A New Chapter Off to a Flying Start

Changing a head coach is always a gamble, but PAOK’s appointment of Lisci appears to have paid off handsomely. The team is already beginning to showcase the brand of football characteristic of the Italian tactician: aggressive high pressing, swift ball recovery after turnovers, and dangerous transitions in quick counter-attacks. The formula is working. The club won three of four pre-season friendlies, netting 13 goals while conceding six.

This vibrant style carried over into the first official match of the season against Dynamo Kyiv (3-2). Despite conceding an early goal, PAOK wrestled back control of the game. They consistently punished the visitors for sluggish defensive transitions and the gaps left between the lines. The first goal came from a rapid vertical attack, while the other two were the product of sustained pressure around the penalty area. A special mention goes to Giannis Konstantelias, who contributed a goal and an assist.

Tactical Analysis: Dynamo Kyiv – Finishing and Defence Are the Main Issues

Dynamo Kyiv looked sharp during their summer training camp, winning three of five friendlies with a goal difference of 10:6. This form raised hopes for a strong start to the season. However, their matches against Universitatea Cluj in the first qualifying round of the Europa League exposed deep-seated problems. The most glaring issue was finishing: the visitors failed to score a single goal across two legs, despite firing off 44 shots (12 on target), and only progressed past their opponents via a penalty shootout (4-2).

Poor finishing also haunted them in the first leg against PAOK. Despite scoring twice, Matvei Ponomarenko squandered two one-on-one chances against the goalkeeper in the second half. Furthermore, the Greeks exposed Kyiv’s defensive frailties. Taras Mykhavko looked particularly vulnerable—dangerous attacks consistently originated from his zone. Given the club’s challenging injury situation, there is no adequate replacement for Mykhavko, so he is likely to start again.

Predicted Lineups

PAOK (4-2-3-1): Pavlenka – Kenny, Hatzidiakos, Michailidis, Gomez – Zafiris, Santamaria – Zivkovic, Konstantelias, Tyson – Mitu

Out: Ali, Despodov, Meite, Chalov (all injured)

Head Coach: Alessio Lisci

Dynamo Kyiv (4-3-3): Neshcheret – Kędziora, Bilovar, Mykhavko, Dubinchak – Pikhalyonok, Brazhko, Shaparenko – Voloshyn, Ponomarenko, Guerrero

Out: Vivcharenko, Popov, Salenko, Zakharchenko, Osypenko, Ramadani, Kabaev (all injured); Mykhailenko, Tymchyk (both doubtful)

Head Coach: Ihor Kostyuk

Referee: Damian Sylwestrzak (Poland)

The Polish official is known for his strict refereeing style. On average, he hands out 4.45 yellow cards, 0.21 red cards, and awards 0.32 penalties per match. In European competitions, he becomes even more stringent: 5.5 yellow cards per game, 0.35 red cards, and 0.35 penalty kicks.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: PAOK to Win

The first head-to-head meeting (3-2) confirmed that PAOK are in excellent form and have already adapted to their new head coach’s system. Dynamo Kyiv, on the other hand, are still struggling to find their rhythm. Their finishing remains erratic, and their defence continues to make costly errors. The visitors’ injury list only compounds their problems. With the Ukrainians needing to chase the game, they will be forced to push forward, leaving space for the Greeks to exploit on the counter-attack. Our pick: PAOK to win.

Total Goals Prediction

As noted above, Dynamo Kyiv will have to attack aggressively, leaving their backline exposed. PAOK are likely to take full advantage, especially since they have significantly improved their attacking output under Lisci. The club has scored 16 goals in five matches (including friendlies), finding the net at least twice in every single game. Given this trend, we recommend a bet on PAOK Over 1.5 Goals.