PSV vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and odds

PSV and AZ Alkmaar are set to kick off the new Dutch season with a clash for the Johan Cruyff Shield. The Eindhoven side are defending the trophy and once again host the opponent on their own turf, but they approach the game with several question marks. Some key players returned late from international duty, and the defence allowed numerous chances during the summer. Can the KNVB Cup winners exploit the favourite's issues?

PSV: Attack Ready, Defence Still a Concern

Peter Bosz's team won the Eredivisie for the third consecutive time. Across 34 matches, PSV netted 101 goals—the best attacking record in the league—but also conceded 45. The manager himself admitted that is far too many for a champion and made improving defensive solidity a top summer priority. Pre-season produced results but lacked consistency. PSV drew 1–1 with Antwerp, beat Raków (3–2), Union SG (7–3), and FC Eindhoven (3–0), and lost to Villarreal (1–3). The first two high-scoring wins cannot be taken at face value: the match against the Polish side lasted 120 minutes, while the one against the Belgians went 150 minutes. The most revealing test came against Villarreal: the Spanish side regularly cut through the hosts' high defensive line, and Bosz admitted the opposition could have scored more than three.

PSV lost Ismaël Saibari, who moved to Bayern Munich after a season with 15 league goals. However, they signed Sven Mijnans from AZ, who has already slotted into the midfield three. Ruben van Bommel has recovered from a serious injury, and Guus Til scored against FC Eindhoven and could start as a false nine. PSV remain the reigning Super Cup holders and the tournament's record winners with 15 titles.

AZ: Strong Finish to Pre-Season, but No Captain

AZ earned their Super Cup place by thrashing NEC 5–1 in the KNVB Cup final. Over the summer, the Alkmaar side played six friendlies: winning three, drawing two, and losing one. Towards the end of pre-season, AZ thrashed Genk 4–0 and came back from 0–2 down to beat Olympiacos 3–2. Earlier there were draws with Gent (3–3) and Zulte Waregem (1–1), a win over Almere City (2–1), and a loss to Anderlecht (0–1). They scored in five of the six matches. However, none of the pre-season opponents possessed attacking power comparable to PSV's.

AZ are without key players in central and right‑side areas. Captain Jordy Clasie has not recovered in time, and Denso Casius picked up a groin injury in the Olympiacos friendly. Dave Kwakman and Elijah Dijkstra are expected to replace them. This is especially unwelcome ahead of a meeting with PSV, who have scored at least twice against AZ in the last five head‑to‑head matches and won four of them.

Predicted Lineups for PSV vs AZ

PSV (4-3-3): Kovar — Sildillia, Flamingo, Gasiorowski, Fernandez — Mauro Junior, Veerman, Mijnans — Man, Til, Van Bommel Unavailable: Schouten (injury), Dest, Pepi, Perisic, Vanner (all doubtful) Head coach: Peter Bosz

AZ (4-3-3): De Busser — Dijkstra, Goes, Lewis Schouten, Chavez — Kwakman, Koopmeiners, Kes Smit — Piatari, Meerdink, Dhal Unavailable: Clasie, Casius (both injured), Hien, Hornkamp (both doubtful) Head coach: Leroy Echteld

Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük

Gözübüyük is a fairly lenient official. Last season he averaged 3.17 yellow cards per match with 22.56 fouls. In the 2018/19 season, he already officiated the Super Cup and showed three yellow cards.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: AZ finished their pre‑season strongly and can punish PSV for their risky, high‑line approach. However, the hosts have superior depth and individual quality, and the absence of Clasie and Casius will make it harder for the visitors to play out from pressure and defend the right flank. PSV have won four of the last five head‑to‑head meetings, including 5–1 away and 2–1 at home last season. We back PSV with a handicap of –1.5 at odds of 2.27.

Total prediction: PSV's defence does not yet look ready: the team conceded in four of five summer friendlies, and Villarreal created enough chances for a bigger win. At the same time, the champions' attacking potential remains high even after Saibari's departure. In three of PSV's five pre‑season matches, at least four goals were scored, and AZ's total went over 2.5 in four of six friendlies. The last five direct meetings produced 19 goals (an average of 3.8 per game), so we go for over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.92.