PSV
AZ AlkmaarBy Tunde Ogundipe — Football expert covering Premier League, MLS, J1 League, and more
PSV and AZ Alkmaar are set to kick off the new Dutch season with a clash for the Johan Cruyff Shield. The Eindhoven side are defending the trophy and once again host the opponent on their own turf, but they approach the game with several question marks. Some key players returned late from international duty, and the defence allowed numerous chances during the summer. Can the KNVB Cup winners exploit the favourite's issues?
Peter Bosz's team won the Eredivisie for the third consecutive time. Across 34 matches, PSV netted 101 goals—the best attacking record in the league—but also conceded 45. The manager himself admitted that is far too many for a champion and made improving defensive solidity a top summer priority. Pre-season produced results but lacked consistency. PSV drew 1–1 with Antwerp, beat Raków (3–2), Union SG (7–3), and FC Eindhoven (3–0), and lost to Villarreal (1–3). The first two high-scoring wins cannot be taken at face value: the match against the Polish side lasted 120 minutes, while the one against the Belgians went 150 minutes. The most revealing test came against Villarreal: the Spanish side regularly cut through the hosts' high defensive line, and Bosz admitted the opposition could have scored more than three.
PSV lost Ismaël Saibari, who moved to Bayern Munich after a season with 15 league goals. However, they signed Sven Mijnans from AZ, who has already slotted into the midfield three. Ruben van Bommel has recovered from a serious injury, and Guus Til scored against FC Eindhoven and could start as a false nine. PSV remain the reigning Super Cup holders and the tournament's record winners with 15 titles.
AZ earned their Super Cup place by thrashing NEC 5–1 in the KNVB Cup final. Over the summer, the Alkmaar side played six friendlies: winning three, drawing two, and losing one. Towards the end of pre-season, AZ thrashed Genk 4–0 and came back from 0–2 down to beat Olympiacos 3–2. Earlier there were draws with Gent (3–3) and Zulte Waregem (1–1), a win over Almere City (2–1), and a loss to Anderlecht (0–1). They scored in five of the six matches. However, none of the pre-season opponents possessed attacking power comparable to PSV's.
AZ are without key players in central and right‑side areas. Captain Jordy Clasie has not recovered in time, and Denso Casius picked up a groin injury in the Olympiacos friendly. Dave Kwakman and Elijah Dijkstra are expected to replace them. This is especially unwelcome ahead of a meeting with PSV, who have scored at least twice against AZ in the last five head‑to‑head matches and won four of them.
PSV (4-3-3): Kovar — Sildillia, Flamingo, Gasiorowski, Fernandez — Mauro Junior, Veerman, Mijnans — Man, Til, Van Bommel Unavailable: Schouten (injury), Dest, Pepi, Perisic, Vanner (all doubtful) Head coach: Peter Bosz
AZ (4-3-3): De Busser — Dijkstra, Goes, Lewis Schouten, Chavez — Kwakman, Koopmeiners, Kes Smit — Piatari, Meerdink, Dhal Unavailable: Clasie, Casius (both injured), Hien, Hornkamp (both doubtful) Head coach: Leroy Echteld
Gözübüyük is a fairly lenient official. Last season he averaged 3.17 yellow cards per match with 22.56 fouls. In the 2018/19 season, he already officiated the Super Cup and showed three yellow cards.
Main prediction: AZ finished their pre‑season strongly and can punish PSV for their risky, high‑line approach. However, the hosts have superior depth and individual quality, and the absence of Clasie and Casius will make it harder for the visitors to play out from pressure and defend the right flank. PSV have won four of the last five head‑to‑head meetings, including 5–1 away and 2–1 at home last season. We back PSV with a handicap of –1.5 at odds of 2.27.
Total prediction: PSV's defence does not yet look ready: the team conceded in four of five summer friendlies, and Villarreal created enough chances for a bigger win. At the same time, the champions' attacking potential remains high even after Saibari's departure. In three of PSV's five pre‑season matches, at least four goals were scored, and AZ's total went over 2.5 in four of six friendlies. The last five direct meetings produced 19 goals (an average of 3.8 per game), so we go for over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.92.
The editorial prediction is provided for informational purposes only and should not be treated as a direct call to action. Every reader should do their own analysis before deciding on a bet.
PSV4-3-3
AZ Alkmaar4-3-3I'm confident this is a straightforward play: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals at 1.6. The matchup features two sides with shaky defenses and plenty of attacking firepower, which historically leads to goals at both ends. I've seen this pattern hold consistently, and the odds offer solid value for such a high-probability outcome. I'm betting on goals from both sides exceeding the 2.5 line without overcomplicating it.
I am taking a cautious stance. I believe the situation is too uncertain to call right now, so I will wait for more data before committing to a specific outcome. My reasoning is that premature predictions often lead to errors, and patience will yield a clearer picture.
I'm backing PSV to win. Their recent form has been sharp, and they carry a clear edge in quality and momentum. I see no reason to doubt them here—they'll get the job done.
I'm confident both teams will combine for at least ten corner kicks. The match features two sides that attack relentlessly and put constant pressure on the flanks, which historically leads to a high number of corners. I've analyzed their recent games and the pattern is clear—this bet is well within reach.
I'm confident this match will go over 3.5 total goals. Both teams are productive and should find the net.
I am taking the over 3 goals in the Dutch Super Cup match between PSV and AZ Alkmaar. The head-to-head trend is clear: the last seven meetings have all gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in five consecutive matches. Over 80% of their recent games have seen at least three goals, and this pattern has held for four years. In 2021 and 2023, the matches produced results like 3-1, 4-0, and 3-0, with only a brief 1-0 outlier in 2022 before the trend resumed.
Looking at recent form, 8 of PSV's last 9 matches (including friendlies) had at least three goals, while AZ matched that in 5 of their last 6. Both teams score frequently—8 of 9 for PSV, 7 of 8 for AZ. In the Eredivisie last season, PSV averaged nearly 3 goals per game (101 goals in 34 matches) and conceded about 1.3, giving an average total of 4.5 goals per match. AZ averaged 3.2 goals per game (58 scored, 51 conceded). Given PSV's firepower, I expect this match to hit at least three goals, with a solid chance of a push or over. I'm confident in the over 3.
I believe this is the most optimal outcome for the match. I've analyzed the key factors and I'm confident in this pick.
I'm predicting that more guests will arrive than expected. My reasoning is based on the clear trend of increasing attendance at similar events this year, combined with the strong word-of-mouth and social media buzz surrounding this occasion. I've analyzed the current RSVP numbers and the historical data, and the momentum clearly points to a higher turnout.
I am confident that PSV will win this match. Their current form is strong, especially at home, and they have the tactical edge over their opponent. I’ve analyzed the squad depth and recent performances, and PSV simply has more quality in key areas.
My bet is straightforward: PSV to secure the victory. The odds make sense given the gap in class, and I don’t see the underdog pulling off an upset here.
I need to win. I've analyzed every angle and I'm fully confident in the outcome—there's no alternative. My reasoning is clear, and I'm committed to making this happen.
Hello everyone! Today is the Dutch Super Cup, and I'm confidently backing PSV to win at home against AZ. PSV have dominated this fixture, winning 20 of 29 home matches against AZ, and the visitors have lost six of the last seven head-to-head meetings. With AZ missing Meijnans through injury and Smith suspended, their chances look slim. I'm convinced the hosts will lift the trophy today.
I'm predicting at least two goals in the second half of this match. My bet is on over 1.5 goals in the second half, backed by the pattern of late action in these games.
I expect a high-scoring game today. Both teams are in strong attacking form and have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently. With the pace and quality on display, we’re likely to see several goals. I’m betting on over 2.5 total goals — the odds are in our favor.
I see cup matches in football as a longstanding tradition, but still essential for teams to develop their tactical and technical skills and prepare for their competitive season. That's exactly why betting on these games is so tough — they're unpredictable by design.
I confidently predict PSV will win. Their recent form has been outstanding, and playing at home gives them a clear edge over the opposition. The team's attacking depth and defensive organization are simply too much for their opponent to handle.
I'm confident PSV will win the Super Cup.
I believe this is a solid prediction for this match. The teams' recent form and head-to-head trends support this outcome, and I'm confident it will hold.
PSV Eindhoven will win in regular time. Their home form has been dominant, and they consistently outplay opponents in the first 90 minutes. I'm confident in this outcome based on their recent performances and tactical edge.
I've been betting on football for about five years now, and I've never seen anything like this. The guy I'm talking about gives exact-score bets with odds ranging from 40 to 70, and they land flawlessly every time. I put 1,000 on one of them and walked away with 70,000. I've bought his picks three times so far, and all of them hit without a miss.
If you're serious about winning big on football, this is the real deal. I'm confident enough to stake my own money on it repeatedly, and it keeps paying off. No guesswork, no flukes—just precise results that turn small stakes into serious cash.
I have no comments.
I'm predicting that the team will continue to struggle offensively. Their recent performances show a clear lack of creativity and finishing in the final third, and I don't see that changing in the short term. The underlying metrics confirm this is a systemic issue, not just bad luck.
Over the past few years, PSV has simply had no real competition. I'm confident they'll win yet another Dutch Super Cup.
I have no doubt that PSV will hold onto the trophy. Their form and depth are simply too strong for any challenger—this title stays with them.
PSV wins this one — that's my call, and I'm standing by it. They've got the stronger squad and the form to back it up, so I don't see the opposition keeping pace over the full match. Confident pick: PSV takes the victory.
I'm backing PSV to win. Their recent form has been sharp, and they carry a clear edge in quality and momentum. I see no reason to doubt them here—they'll get the job done.
I am confident that PSV will win this match. Their current form is strong, especially at home, and they have the tactical edge over their opponent. I’ve analyzed the squad depth and recent performances, and PSV simply has more quality in key areas.
My bet is straightforward: PSV to secure the victory. The odds make sense given the gap in class, and I don’t see the underdog pulling off an upset here.
I need to win. I've analyzed every angle and I'm fully confident in the outcome—there's no alternative. My reasoning is clear, and I'm committed to making this happen.
Hello everyone! Today is the Dutch Super Cup, and I'm confidently backing PSV to win at home against AZ. PSV have dominated this fixture, winning 20 of 29 home matches against AZ, and the visitors have lost six of the last seven head-to-head meetings. With AZ missing Meijnans through injury and Smith suspended, their chances look slim. I'm convinced the hosts will lift the trophy today.
I confidently predict PSV will win. Their recent form has been outstanding, and playing at home gives them a clear edge over the opposition. The team's attacking depth and defensive organization are simply too much for their opponent to handle.
PSV Eindhoven will win in regular time. Their home form has been dominant, and they consistently outplay opponents in the first 90 minutes. I'm confident in this outcome based on their recent performances and tactical edge.
I've been betting on football for about five years now, and I've never seen anything like this. The guy I'm talking about gives exact-score bets with odds ranging from 40 to 70, and they land flawlessly every time. I put 1,000 on one of them and walked away with 70,000. I've bought his picks three times so far, and all of them hit without a miss.
If you're serious about winning big on football, this is the real deal. I'm confident enough to stake my own money on it repeatedly, and it keeps paying off. No guesswork, no flukes—just precise results that turn small stakes into serious cash.
I have no comments.
PSV wins this one — that's my call, and I'm standing by it. They've got the stronger squad and the form to back it up, so I don't see the opposition keeping pace over the full match. Confident pick: PSV takes the victory.
I am taking a cautious stance. I believe the situation is too uncertain to call right now, so I will wait for more data before committing to a specific outcome. My reasoning is that premature predictions often lead to errors, and patience will yield a clearer picture.
I'm confident both teams will combine for at least ten corner kicks. The match features two sides that attack relentlessly and put constant pressure on the flanks, which historically leads to a high number of corners. I've analyzed their recent games and the pattern is clear—this bet is well within reach.
I'm confident this match will go over 3.5 total goals. Both teams are productive and should find the net.
I am taking the over 3 goals in the Dutch Super Cup match between PSV and AZ Alkmaar. The head-to-head trend is clear: the last seven meetings have all gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in five consecutive matches. Over 80% of their recent games have seen at least three goals, and this pattern has held for four years. In 2021 and 2023, the matches produced results like 3-1, 4-0, and 3-0, with only a brief 1-0 outlier in 2022 before the trend resumed.
Looking at recent form, 8 of PSV's last 9 matches (including friendlies) had at least three goals, while AZ matched that in 5 of their last 6. Both teams score frequently—8 of 9 for PSV, 7 of 8 for AZ. In the Eredivisie last season, PSV averaged nearly 3 goals per game (101 goals in 34 matches) and conceded about 1.3, giving an average total of 4.5 goals per match. AZ averaged 3.2 goals per game (58 scored, 51 conceded). Given PSV's firepower, I expect this match to hit at least three goals, with a solid chance of a push or over. I'm confident in the over 3.
I believe this is the most optimal outcome for the match. I've analyzed the key factors and I'm confident in this pick.
I'm predicting that more guests will arrive than expected. My reasoning is based on the clear trend of increasing attendance at similar events this year, combined with the strong word-of-mouth and social media buzz surrounding this occasion. I've analyzed the current RSVP numbers and the historical data, and the momentum clearly points to a higher turnout.
I'm predicting at least two goals in the second half of this match. My bet is on over 1.5 goals in the second half, backed by the pattern of late action in these games.
I expect a high-scoring game today. Both teams are in strong attacking form and have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently. With the pace and quality on display, we’re likely to see several goals. I’m betting on over 2.5 total goals — the odds are in our favor.
I see cup matches in football as a longstanding tradition, but still essential for teams to develop their tactical and technical skills and prepare for their competitive season. That's exactly why betting on these games is so tough — they're unpredictable by design.
I believe this is a solid prediction for this match. The teams' recent form and head-to-head trends support this outcome, and I'm confident it will hold.
I'm predicting that the team will continue to struggle offensively. Their recent performances show a clear lack of creativity and finishing in the final third, and I don't see that changing in the short term. The underlying metrics confirm this is a systemic issue, not just bad luck.
I'm confident this is a straightforward play: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals at 1.6. The matchup features two sides with shaky defenses and plenty of attacking firepower, which historically leads to goals at both ends. I've seen this pattern hold consistently, and the odds offer solid value for such a high-probability outcome. I'm betting on goals from both sides exceeding the 2.5 line without overcomplicating it.
I'm confident PSV will win the Super Cup.
The match takes place on 2 August 2026 at 17:00 local time at PSV's home ground in Eindhoven as part of the Johan Cruijff Shield.
The main prediction is PSV with a handicap of –1.5 at odds of 2.27. Additionally, over 3.5 total goals is recommended at odds of 1.92.
PSV are considered favourites as the reigning Eredivisie champions, Super Cup holders, and record winners of the trophy. They have also won four of the last five head-to-head meetings.
PSV had an inconsistent pre-season, conceding in four of five friendlies and showing defensive vulnerabilities. AZ finished pre-season strongly with wins over Genk (4–0) and Olympiacos (3–2), scoring in five of six matches.
PSV are without Jerdy Schouten (injury) and have several doubtful players (Dest, Pepi, Perisic, Vanner). AZ miss captain Jordy Clasie and Denso Casius (both injured), with Dave Kwakman and Elijah Dijkstra expected to replace them.