Raków vs Hajduk Split: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The Polish side Raków Częstochowa and Croatia’s Hajduk Split are set to battle for a spot in the group stage of the UEFA Conference League when they meet in the second leg of the final qualifying round. The first leg in Split turned into a thrilling, end-to-end affair that finished 2-2, with the Polish outfit controlling 55% of possession and firing six shots on target compared to just two from the hosts. Now, the visitors arrive for the decisive away fixture on the back of a crushing 4-0 league win over Osijek, while the home side look to offset their inconsistent form in the Ekstraklasa with a solid run on the continental stage.

Tactical Analysis: Raków Częstochowa – Possession Play and Defensive Frailties

Throughout this European campaign, Raków have navigated their ties with authority, dispatching Malta’s Valletta (3-1 at home, 4-0 away) and Sweden’s Hammarby (0-0 at home, 1-0 away). In the first leg in Split, the Polish team made intelligent use of space and exploited their numerical advantage after an opposition red card, racking up 12 attempts on goal. They are a side comfortable in possession and adept at building attacks through patient positional play, but recurring defensive lapses when dealing with crosses from the flanks cost them the win against the Croats.

Across their last five competitive matches in all tournaments, Raków have managed just one victory, alongside two draws and two defeats. They average 1.00 goal scored per game while conceding 1.20. At home in European competition this season, the club has recorded one win and one draw, letting in only a single goal. There are no major injury or suspension concerns in the squad, and the creative heartbeat of the team remains Spanish midfielder Ivi López, who consistently poses a threat from set pieces.

Tactical Analysis: Hajduk Split – Potent Attack and Unbeaten Run

Hajduk Split began their international journey in the second qualifying round of the Europa League, where they overcame Slovakia’s Žilina (2-0 at home, 1-2 away) before falling to Cyprus’s Pafos (2-0 at home, 0-4 away after extra time). Dropping into the Conference League, they thrashed Lithuania’s Žalgiris with an aggregate score of 9-2 (5-2 away, 4-0 at home), and in the first leg against Raków, they showed immense character to snatch a 2-2 draw despite being reduced to ten men. The Croatian outfit boast enormous attacking firepower and know how to punish opponents for even the slightest loss of concentration, though their away defensive record can be shaky.

In their last five matches across all competitions, Hajduk remain unbeaten, with three wins and two draws. Over this stretch, they have been devastating in front of goal, averaging 2.80 goals per game while conceding 1.00. In the current European season, the Croatian side recorded a resounding 5-2 away victory over Žalgiris. A key player will miss the match due to a red card picked up in the first leg, but the team’s primary attacking weapon—captain Marko Livaja—is in superb form and ready to lead the line.

Predicted Lineups

Raków Częstochowa:

• Goalkeeper: Kovačević
• Defenders: Racovițan, Svarnas, Baráth, Tudor
• Midfielders: Lederman, Berggren, Myszor
• Forwards: López, Piasecki, Rocha

Hajduk Split:

• Goalkeeper: Lučić
• Defenders: Sigur, Uremović, Prpić, Diallo
• Midfielders: Pukštas, Krovinović, Brekalo
• Forwards: Sahiti, Livaja, Rakitić

Referee: Aliyar Aghayev (Azerbaijan)

The match will be officiated by Azerbaijani referee Aliyar Aghayev. In the 2026/27 season so far, he has taken charge of two matches, brandishing 11 yellow cards (an average of 5.50 per game) and recording 37 fouls in a single Europa League fixture. The official is known for his very strict style of refereeing and wastes no time in clamping down on any rough play.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Hajduk Split to avoid defeat at odds of 1.63

Hajduk Split have built serious momentum and remain unbeaten in six consecutive matches across all competitions, scoring 14 goals in their last five outings alone. Even when reduced to ten men in the first leg, the Croatian side refused to lose on the scoreboard and kept the tie level. Raków, meanwhile, are experiencing a dip in form domestically and struggle to break down well-organized defences. The visitors’ attacking quality and clinical finishing make them a strong bet to avoid defeat in regular time. We back the outcome: Hajduk Split not to lose at 1.63. We assess the probability of this outcome at 65% (anything above 1.54 is considered playable).

Goals prediction: Both teams to score at odds of 1.82

The first meeting between these sides laid bare the defensive vulnerabilities of both teams. The both-teams-to-score bet landed in the opening leg (2-2), and has also come through in 3 of Raków’s last 5 matches and 3 of Hajduk’s previous 5 games. The visitors’ high attacking output, combined with the home side’s need to push forward in front of their own fans, guarantees an open contest with chances at both ends. We select the outcome: both teams to score (yes) at 1.82. We estimate the probability of this result at 60% (anything above 1.67 is considered playable).