Real Madrid vs Leganes: prediction and odds

Real Madrid continue their preseason preparations under José Mourinho with a friendly against Segunda División side Leganés. The first test against Alcorcón (1-0) was a disjointed affair, but the squad is gradually building match sharpness. Can the Blancos deliver a more convincing performance in their second outing?

Tactical Analysis: Real Madrid

Real Madrid have already played their first preseason friendly, a closed-door clash with Alcorcón that ended 1-0. Mourinho started with a 4-2-3-1 shape before switching to a 4-3-3 after the break, introducing several young players. Mastantuono won a penalty inside the first minute, but Güler saw his spot‑kick saved. The only goal came from Yáñez in the 81st minute. The overall impression was mixed: few clear chances and a clear lack of cohesion.

The squad situation is typical for early preseason. Valverde has returned to full training and could see minutes. Militão, Mendy, and Rodrigo are still recovering from injuries. Meanwhile, Rüdiger, Konaté, Dumfries, Cucurella, Bellingham, Tchouaméni, Bernardo Silva, Vinícius, Mbappé, and Endrick are all on holiday after the World Cup.

On the transfer market, Real Madrid have acted precisely to suit Mourinho’s demands. Dumfries, Konaté, and Cucurella represent a major upgrade in defence – a priority for the Portuguese coach. Bernardo Silva adds creativity in midfield. Departures include Alaba, Carvajal, and Ceballos, veterans whose time has passed. The club is still negotiating for Rodri and Jan Diomande from Leipzig, which would add further attacking variety. The squad is being refreshed, but for the Leganés match, we can expect another mix of first‑team regulars and talented youngsters.

Tactical Analysis: Leganés

Leganés are entering their second season in the Segunda División under new head coach Rubén Albes, a 41‑year‑old who is not wedded to a single tactical system but adapts to each opponent. The team have already played three friendlies, the most recent a goalless draw with Portuguese side Nacional. The lineup has been rotated heavily as Albes evaluates new signings: Raúl Fernández and Zico Burmister started, while ten substitutions were made after the break, including a debut for Álvaro Tejero. The play remains raw, with few chances created.

The transfer campaign has focused on strengthening midfield. Three players have arrived: Burmister, Kechta, and Miguel Atienza – the latter from Burgos, described by the sporting director as “a top‑level player for La Liga.” Atienza brings balance, tenacity, and ball‑recovery ability – exactly what the centre of the park needed. Three forwards have left, but Albes has faith in the reserves and the talented Danish youngster Getler. The squad is renewed and still being integrated; it is far from optimal condition.

Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Lunin – Alexander‑Arnold, Asensio, Heysen, Carreras – Cestero, Camavinga – Mastantuono, Güler, Valero – García Unavailable: Rodrigo, Mendy, Militão, Courtois (all injured); Rüdiger, Konaté, Dumfries, Cucurella, Bellingham, Tchouaméni, Bernardo Silva, Vinícius, Mbappé, Endrick (all on holiday) Head coach: José Mourinho

Leganés (4-2-3-1): Fernández – Tejero, Lalo, Pulido, Marvin – Campes, Diawara – López, Burmister, Ketcha – Getler Unavailable: Leiva (injured) Head coach: Rubén Albes

Prediction and Bet

Real Madrid are gradually building fitness. In their second preseason match, Mourinho will continue to assess his reserve players – and Valverde’s return to full training adds extra intensity to the central axis. Leganés represent an ideal opponent for gaining confidence: a Segunda side with a raw squad, a new coach, and three friendlies without a single goal in attack. Even without their star names, the Blancos should be capable of scoring two or three goals. Therefore, the main bet is Real Madrid handicap (-1.5).

Mourinho has always demanded defensive solidity from day one. In the first friendly against Alcorcón, Real kept a clean sheet, and the Portuguese will continue to instil that discipline in the second outing. Leganés’ attack looks frankly weak: three friendlies without a goal, a new system being implemented, and a midfield rebuild. Given the visitors’ difficulties in transitioning forward, a bet on both teams to score – no also looks appealing.