Red Star vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The Serbian champions find themselves in an unfamiliar and uncomfortable position. After a shock 0:1 defeat to Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the first leg of the Champions League third qualifying round, Red Star Belgrade are now staring down the barrel of elimination from Europe's most prestigious competition. The match, played in Hungary, left Dejan Stanković's men with a mountain to climb, but this is not uncharted territory for the Belgrade giants. With a history of dramatic comebacks and the unyielding support of their home crowd at the "Little Maracana," the question remains: can they turn the tie around?

Tactical Analysis of Red Star Belgrade: An Unexpected Stumble and a History of Comebacks

The first-leg defeat exposed a troubling lack of a coherent attacking structure when faced with a disciplined and organized defense. Red Star started brightly, with Mirko Ivanić creating several promising opportunities. However, all that positive work was undone by a single, catastrophic error from goalkeeper Mateus. His misplaced pass found Derik Lucassen, allowing Zahi Ahmed to intercept and slot home a one-on-one chance. The early goal acted as a cold shower, and even when Hapoel were reduced to ten men following a 58th-minute red card, Stanković's side looked disjointed and frantic. They failed to carve out any truly dangerous openings, with only a late, powerful strike from Mohammed Cham – well-saved by the Hapoel goalkeeper – offering any real threat.

Despite this European setback, Red Star’s overall form remains excellent. They have stormed through the start of their domestic season with commanding wins over Mačva (5:0), Vojvodina (3:1), and Novi Pazar (2:0). Their previous Champions League qualifying round also saw them demolish Larnaca 9:0 on aggregate. The narrow loss in Hungary leaves the tie wide open. Crucially, Red Star have a proven track record of turning such situations around on their own turf. In the 2024/25 season, they found themselves in an almost identical scenario, losing 1:2 away to Bodø/Glimt before winning the home leg 2:0 to advance. To replicate that feat, they must first rediscover their dominance in duels and second balls – an area they lost in the first leg – and bring a completely different level of aggression and urgency to their attack.

Tactical Analysis of Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Discipline and Character Under Pressure

Hapoel Be'er Sheva’s season began on a shaky note. They lost the Israeli Super Cup to Maccabi Tel Aviv (1:3), a match where coach Ran Kozuch admitted his defence was a complete failure. That was followed by a disappointing 1:2 away defeat to Iceland's Víkingur in the second qualifying round, having conceded two late goals. But this defeat proved to be a turning point. In the return leg, Hapoel showed immense character, winning 2:0 to overturn the deficit and advance. These battles revealed a team with real backbone.

That fighting spirit, combined with collective tactical discipline, was the key to their success in the first leg against Red Star. Zahi Ahmed’s goal was a product of capitalizing on an opponent's mistake, but the real test came in the second half. After Matan Baltaxa's red card in the 58th minute, Hapoel had to defend their slender lead with ten men for over half an hour. They dropped into a compact low block and withstood a late siege, even creating dangerous counter-attacks – one of which saw a goal disallowed for offside. Baltaxa's suspension leaves a significant hole on the left side of the defence, and it is likely that Ofir Davidzada will be tasked with filling the gap in Belgrade. Now, the ultimate challenge awaits: facing the roar of a 50,000-strong crowd at the "Little Maracana."

Predicted Lineups

Red Star Belgrade (4-2-3-1): Mateus – Seol, Lucassen, Eraković, Tiknizyan – Krunić, Fani – Bukari, Kostov, Ivanić – Bruno Duarte

Unavailable: Avdić (injury)

Head Coach: Dejan Stanković

Hapoel Be'er Sheva (4-3-3): Marciano – Mizrahi, Vitor, Rothman, Davidzada – Yehoshua, Ventura, Peretz – Ist, Zlatanović, Ahmed

Unavailable: Bitton, Victor (both injuries), Baltaxa (suspension)

Head Coach: Ran Kozuch

Referee: Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)

The experienced Swedish official is known for not rushing into his pocket. He prefers verbal warnings and only brandishes a yellow card when absolutely necessary. Last season, he averaged 21.78 fouls and 3.53 yellow cards per game. In the Champions League, his card count drops even lower, showing just 2.59 yellow cards per match.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Red Star Belgrade to Win with a -1.5 Handicap at 1.78

Despite their first-leg loss, Red Star remain the favorites in this tie. They are the superior side in terms of individual quality and will be playing at home, where they have been utterly dominant. They have won all four home matches this season, each by a margin of two or more goals. In contrast, Hapoel Be'er Sheva lost their last away Champions League qualifier to the weaker Víkingur (1:2). Furthermore, the visitors are without their starting left-back due to suspension. The intensity and pressure from the home crowd will likely prove too much for Hapoel to handle. The smart play is a Red Star victory with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 1.78.

Total Goals Prediction: Hapoel Be'er Sheva Under 0.5 Goals at 2.02

In the first meeting, Hapoel scored the maximum possible from a single, catastrophic mistake by Red Star. Repeating that in Belgrade will be a monumental task. The visitors will likely shift their entire focus to defending their lead, making counter-attacks a rare luxury as their midfielders will be burdened with heavy defensive work. Unless Red Star gift them another goal, the chances of Hapoel finding the net are minimal. This is backed by statistics: in Red Star's four home matches this season, they have conceded just a single goal. The recommendation is to back Hapoel Be'er Sheva’s individual total to stay under 0.5 at odds of 2.02.