Rijeka vs Midtjylland: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Midtjylland proved their class in the first leg of the Conference League qualifiers, securing a commanding 2-0 victory over Rijeka. The Danish side dictated play from start to finish, leaving their opponents with virtually nothing to create near their goal. If the Croatian outfit repeats that performance in the return leg, the visitors will have every reason to expect another win.

Rijeka: Creative Struggles

Matjaž Kek’s side is clearly outmatched in terms of squad depth and market value—€35.2 million against Midtjylland’s €107.9 million. The first leg laid this gap bare: Rijeka managed only 40% possession, fired a single shot on target across 90 minutes, and produced a meager 0.31 expected goals (xG), failing to carve out a single clear-cut chance. In domestic action, they recently beat Istra 1961 (3-2), but before that fell to weaker Varaždin (0-2). Their European campaign so far has seen them scrape past modest sides like Ilves (1-0, 1-1) and Derry City (1-0, 1-0). Needing to overturn a two-goal deficit, the hosts will have to open up—a risky approach against Midtjylland’s disciplined backline.

Midtjylland: Comfortable Lead and Pragmatic Control

Mike Tullberg’s team delivered a near-perfect first-leg performance on home turf. Midtjylland dominated with 60% ball possession, attempted 18 shots (10 on target), created five big chances, and racked up 1.46 xG. The Danish club is in excellent form, unbeaten in six matches across all competitions. In the Superliga, they recently defeated Randers (1-0), and in the previous European round, they handled Bohemians with ease (2-0, 3-2). With a two-goal cushion, the “Wolves” can afford to slow the game down, neutralize tempo, and dismantle any positional attacks the home side attempts.

Referee: Jasper Vergote (Belgium)

In the 2026/2027 season, the official has overseen five matches at various levels, displaying a lenient style that allows teams to compete. On average, he has issued just 1.60 yellow cards per game, no reds, and recorded 22.60 fouls, while awarding a penalty roughly every fifth match (0.20 per game).

Prediction for Rijeka vs Midtjylland: Midtjylland to Win with Handicap (0) at 1.74

Main Pick: Rijeka has won only one of their last four matches, and their first-leg performance against the Danes was notably weak. We see little reason to expect a drastic turnaround in the return fixture. Midtjylland, on the other hand, is in superb shape, having won five of their last six games across all competitions. We anticipate another solid display from them. Our selection: Midtjylland to win with a handicap (0) at odds of 1.74. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 60% (anything above 1.66 is considered playable).

Total Goals Pick: Rijeka struggles with creating and converting chances, while Midtjylland focuses on a solid, disciplined defense. Unsurprisingly, matches involving these teams have often been low-scoring recently. Fewer than three goals have been scored in four of Rijeka’s last five games, and the same trend applies to the Danes. We do not expect a goal fest in this match. Our selection: total under 2.5 goals at 1.80. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 59% (anything above 1.72 is considered playable).