Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: prediction and odds

As part of their summer pre-season preparations, a friendly will be played between RW Essen, a club from Germany’s third-tier 3. Liga, and Bundesliga side Borussia Mönchengladbach. The two teams occupy very different levels of the German football pyramid and are pursuing their own specific objectives during this pre-season period.

Tactical Analysis of RW Essen

RW Essen enjoyed a highly impressive 2023/24 season in the 3. Liga, finishing in third place with 70 points from 38 matches (20 wins, 10 draws, 8 losses). The team played an attacking brand of football, scoring 78 goals while conceding 66. In the promotion playoffs for a spot in the 2. Bundesliga, they defeated Greuther Fürth 1-0 at home but lost the return leg 0-2, remaining in the third division.

The hosts opened their summer friendly schedule with two emphatic wins: 11-0 against Bottrop and 5-1 against Essen. However, they suffered a setback in their most recent warm-up match, losing 3-0 to Ried. On the transfer market, the club has been active with loan moves, bringing in Ayman Dardari from Augsburg, Toni Menzel from Dynamo Dresden, and Semir Telalovic from Nürnberg. Additionally, Max Geschwill and Noah Pesch have been signed permanently. It is clear that the club has strengthened well and is preparing for the new season with a refreshed attacking line.

Tactical Analysis of Borussia Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach concluded the previous Bundesliga campaign in 12th place, accumulating 38 points from 34 matches (9 wins, 11 draws, 14 losses, with a goal difference of 42:53). Under manager Marco Rose, the team has approached pre-season friendlies with a confident, attacking mindset, comfortably defeating Spelle-Venhaus 6-2 and Wuppertaler 6-0. In these matches, the squad demonstrated a clear intent to dominate offensively against weaker opponents.

The summer’s biggest transfer story for the visitors was the sale of defensive midfielder Rocco Reitz to RB Leipzig for €20 million. The club also allowed Marvin Friedrich to join Union Berlin, goalkeeper Jonas Omlin to move to Basel, and Shio Fukuda to transfer to Karlsruhe, all on free transfers. The funds raised were used for targeted reinforcements: striker Isak Lidberg arrived from Darmstadt, defender David Herold from Karlsruhe, and winger Hugo Bolin from Malmö. These signings do not appear to be major upgrades, so it cannot be said that the squad has received a significant boost in quality.

Prediction and Bet

Main Bet: Borussia Mönchengladbach to Win with a -1.5 Handicap The class difference between a top-flight side and a third-tier team is substantial, and Mönchengladbach have clearly demonstrated this in their July friendlies, scoring six goals in each match against lower-league opponents. RW Essen exposed defensive vulnerabilities in their recent 3-0 loss to Ried and are still building chemistry with their new loan players. The visitors should be able to handle their opponents comfortably without any major issues. We select the outcome: Borussia Mönchengladbach to win with a -1.5 handicap. We estimate the probability of this result at 62% (any odds above 1.58 represent good value).

Total Goals Bet: Over 3.5 Goals Last season, RW Essen were one of the highest-scoring teams in the 3. Liga, averaging 3.8 goals per game. Borussia Mönchengladbach have also shown excellent attacking output in their summer friendlies, creating and scoring plenty. Given the friendly nature of the match and the coaches’ desire to give playing time to all squad members, we can expect an open game with a high number of goals. We select the outcome: total goals over 3.5. We estimate the probability of this high-scoring result at 60% (any odds above 1.65 represent good value).