Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and odds

German fans dreamed of seeing the national team in the 2026 World Cup final, but the “Bundesteam” exited the tournament in disgrace. All attention now turns to the clubs. Borussia Dortmund, in their attempt to challenge Bayern Munich, returned from their summer break earlier than the Bavarians. Their first opponent is a team from the fourth division. But don’t write off Rot-Weiss Oberhausen just yet, because Niko Kovač cannot count on most of his first-choice defenders.

Rot-Weiss Oberhausen: Betting on Youth

In the 2025/26 season, Rot-Weiss Oberhausen finished just four points off the top spot in the German fourth division. The squad began their preparations early: by mid-July they had already played four friendly matches. The first two ended in defeats—1-2 against RKC Waalwijk and 2-3 against VfL Bochum. Both of those opponents play in the second divisions of the Netherlands and Germany respectively and are superior in class. Despite the losses, Oberhausen remained competitive in both games. On the third attempt, a win came against Hamburger SV II (5-2), followed by a 5-0 thrashing of Alstaden, opponents of similar strength. Despite a squad overhaul, Rot-Weiss did not collapse against higher-level opponents: both defeats were by narrow margins, and they managed to score twice against Bochum.

During the off-season, nine players left the club, five of whom were key members of the starting eleven. The most significant departures were midfielder Erik Geye (7 goals, 9 assists in 36 games in 2025/26), striker Seok Ju Hong (10 goals, 6 assists in 36 matches), and the experienced Maton-Glody Ngijombo (5 goals, 2 assists in 35 games). All these players had a major impact on results, forcing the coaching staff to implement serious changes.

The scouting department did not hesitate and quickly brought in replacements for the departed leaders, predominantly young talents. Only two of the eight new signings are older than 25. However, none of them recorded a goal or assist in the three friendlies mentioned above. Coach Sebastian Gunkel is currently relying on the players who were responsible for the seven-match unbeaten run at the end of last season.

Borussia Dortmund: Depleted Defense

Borussia Dortmund failed to mount a serious challenge to Bayern Munich in the 2025/26 Bundesliga, finishing 16 points behind. The club’s management did not embark on a massive rebuild in response. Niko Kovač remained as head coach, but several players had to be let go. The most notable departure was midfielder Julian Brandt. There was also no place in the squad for Niklas Süle, and Karim Adeyemi was allowed to join Barcelona. New players have already arrived to replace them, and all the acquisitions are in the typical Borussia mold – three incoming transfers, three promoted from the youth team, and all are aged 20 or under.

Newcomers should find places in the starting lineup from the very first friendlies. Attacking midfielder Justin Lerma and centre-back Joan Gadou have been seen in team training sessions. Borussia themselves only started training on June 14. They have seven friendlies scheduled for the summer, specifically to give the young new arrivals enough minutes on the pitch.

Just like last year, Borussia begins its cycle of pre-season games against a team from a lower German division. In July 2025, Dortmund played against Siegen (8-1), where Kovač tested virtually his entire squad. This time, the coach’s resources are limited. Nico Schlotterbeck picked up an injury at the 2026 World Cup. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, wing-backs Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson, centre-backs Waldemar Anton and Ramy Bensebaini have not yet reported back to the club. In essence, the entire first-choice defensive unit is unavailable.

Predicted Lineups for Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia Dortmund

Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (4-4-2): Kratzsch – Winter, Klaas, Ludwig, Faßnacht – Halangk, Schlatzke, Terranova, Neudein – Kesim, de Jong

Unavailable: None

Head coach: Sebastian Gunkel

Borussia Dortmund (3-5-2): Meyer – Regjani, Gadou, Mané – Couto, Bellingham, Lerma, Kaba, Kabar – Silva, Guirassy

Unavailable: Schlotterbeck, Can (both injured); Kobel, Anton, Ryerson, Svensson, Bensebaini, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Chukwuemeka, Beyer, Adeyemi (all resting)

Head coach: Niko Kovač

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Borussia Dortmund win with a handicap of (-1.5)

Borussia cannot count on a whole group of first-team players, but this fact does not strip Dortmund of their status as heavy favourites. Based on last season’s friendly matches, it is safe to assume that the strongest available players will start. The presence of newcomers should not be a concern either. It is worth remembering that Rot-Weiss Oberhausen have also undergone major squad changes, and only in their last game against an equal opponent were they able to win. They have struggled against more prestigious opponents. Dortmund’s level is far higher, so backing a Borussia Dortmund win with a -1.5 handicap is the call.

Goals prediction: Both teams to score – Yes

We expect an exchange of goals. There is little doubt that Borussia will score, given their vastly superior class. However, Rot-Weiss Oberhausen will also have their chances. Firstly, Niko Kovač cannot fully replace his defensive unit, meaning Dortmund will have vulnerabilities, especially since they only returned from their break a few days ago. Secondly, in two friendlies against higher-status opponents, the hosts found the net. Considering these factors, a bet on both teams to score looks solid.