Sion vs Ajax: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Sion may have tasted group-stage football in European competition once before, back in the 2015/16 Europa League, but their chances of repeating that feat in the Conference League look slim. Standing in their way is a daunting Ajax side that has won all four of its most recent official meetings with Swiss clubs — a perfect record that does not bode well for the hosts.

Tactical Analysis: Sion

Sion have long been known for developing young talent and selling it on to bigger clubs, but this summer they broke with tradition. Instead of dismantling the squad, they kept last season's core intact and made targeted additions. That unusual stability has paid off handsomely. After three rounds of the Swiss Super League, the "red-and-whites" sit inside the top four, and they have already survived two qualifying rounds in the Conference League — first edging past BATE (1‑1 away, 4‑0 at home) and then disposing of Noah (2‑2 away, 2‑1 at home). The real fortress, however, is their own stadium: Didier Tholo's men have strung together four consecutive home wins across all competitions.

Tholo has a reputation as a pragmatic coach, but his side's defensive fragilities are becoming hard to ignore. They have conceded six goals in their last four matches, a worrying trend that stems largely from the absence of centre‑back Kreshnik Hajrizi. The defender started all 34 league games last season, but a long‑term injury will keep him sidelined until October. Without him, Sion's backline looks vulnerable. On the bright side, their counter‑attacks remain sharp and incisive, and set pieces have been a reliable weapon — they scored from dead‑ball situations in both previous qualifying rounds.

Tactical Analysis: Ajax

Under new boss Michel Sanchez, Ajax are yet to taste defeat in any official fixture this season. Even more impressively, they have outperformed opponents in expected goals (xG) in all six matches and have scored at least twice in every single one. That said, context matters: the Dutch giants have not faced any truly challenging opposition yet. Their current form includes two consecutive draws, the most recent being a 2‑2 stalemate away to Irish side Shelbourne in the third qualifying round — though the 3‑1 first‑leg win in Amsterdam ensured safe passage. Prior to that, they dismantled Serbia's Vojvodina twice (4‑1 each).

The Conference League is not Ajax's top priority, but Sanchez has consistently fielded his strongest XI for the first leg of two‑legged ties. Expect the same in Switzerland. However, the squad has just lost a key asset: Mika Godts was sold to Paris Saint‑Germain last week, and no adequate replacement has been brought in for the left flank. That departure will noticeably blunt Ajax's attacking threat, especially in the final third.

Predicted Lineups

Sion (4‑2‑3‑1): Rachioppi – Lavanshi, Sou, Cronig, Hefti – Balthazar, Kabakalman – Chouaref, Boteli, Surdez – Nivokazi Unavailable: Hajri (injury) Coach: Didier Tholo

Ajax (4‑3‑3): Ter Stegen – Rosa, Bouman, Bass, Kaio Enrique – Klaassen, Gluch, Regeer – Bergheis, Dolberg, Uzane Unavailable: Bunida, Kaplan, Blind, Shutalo, Dongen (all injured) Coach: Michel Sanchez

Prediction and Bet

Ajax are rightfully seen as favourites to progress over two legs, but their trip to Switzerland will be anything but straightforward. The visitors are still learning to function without last season's driving force, Mika Godts, and they have repeatedly been caught out by quick transitions. The biggest weakness in Sanchez's system is the large expanse of space left behind the centre‑backs when the defensive line pushes high — a vulnerability that Heerenveen and even modest Shelbourne exploited with success. That makes Sion's counter‑attacking style a genuine threat, especially given that Tholo's side have won all four home matches this season. The underdog has real value here.

Pick: Sion to avoid defeat at 2.18.

Total goals: This fixture promises entertainment even for neutral viewers, as goals are expected in abundance. Ajax's matches this season average exactly four goals per game, while Sion's average sits at 4.25. That makes over 3.5 goals at 2.50 an appealing secondary bet.