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St. Gallen vs Benfica: prediction and odds

Europe Europa League · Europe · 23 July 2026
St. Gallen logoSt. Gallen
2:1
1st half: 1:1
23.07.2026 19:00
Benfica logoBenfica

Match events

Lukas Görtler🟨
30′
Aliou Balde1:0
37′
44′
1:1Rafa Silva
Jozo Stanic🟨
62′
65′
🟨Vangelis Pavlidis
Tom Gaal2:1
80′
Tom Gaal🟨
90′

Match statistics: St. Gallen vs Benfica

St. GallenBenfica
39Ball possession, %61
17Shots14
6Shots on target4
6Corners5
15Fouls13
1Offsides0
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
107Attacks79
39Dangerous attacks40

💡 Match preview St. Gallen vs Benfica

St. Gallen have secured a spot in the Europa League qualifiers for the first time since 2020, but the draw has handed them an immensely challenging opponent. In the first leg of the second qualifying round, the Swiss side will face Benfica, a club that has consistently reached the knockout stages of this competition whenever they have participated.

Tactical Analysis: St. Gallen’s Summer Setback

After finishing as runners-up for the second consecutive season, St. Gallen set new personal records in the top flight for goal difference (72:47) and points accumulated (70). Adding to the achievement, they lifted the domestic Cup for the first time since 1969. However, the upcoming test represents a different magnitude entirely. During pre-season, they tested themselves against Norwich and Lyon, suffering two heavy defeats (0:3 and 3:6). Given that Benfica boasts an even more formidable attack, the challenge is daunting.

St. Gallen have been relatively quiet in the transfer market. Their top scorer from last season, Alessandro Vogt (18 goals in 41 matches), was sold, but a worthy replacement has been found in Andrin Hunziker (12 goals and 4 assists in 44 games for Winterthur). No other significant moves have been made in either direction. Alieu Baldé has signed a permanent contract after a standout loan spell, contributing 11 goals and 1 assist in the league and 4 goals and 4 assists in the Cup.

Tactical Analysis: Benfica’s Core Remains Intact

This summer, Benfica were prepared to continue their partnership with José Mourinho, despite finishing third in the league. A crucial detail is that the "Eagles" managed to go undefeated in the process. However, the "Special One" opted to move to Real Madrid, and Marco Silva has taken his place. Notably, Silva last participated in European competition a decade ago while managing Olympiacos. In terms of managerial experience on the international stage, the club has lost significant ground. Most players have had little practice this summer: six participated in the World Cup, while the rest played only two friendly matches—against Flamengo (1:2) and Villarreal (2:0). Both clubs clearly outclass St. Gallen in every aspect. In the upcoming match, the Portuguese side will enjoy more possession than they did in those friendlies, creating more opportunities to generate chances in front of goal.

The club has bid farewell to captain Nicolás Otamendi. It is a significant loss, but the defender is now 38 years old. Another renowned player, Clément Lenglet (with 60 Champions League appearances), can now take on the leadership role in defense. The transfer of Jakub Kamiński looks promising: the Pole was a key component for Köln (7 goals and 5 assists in 34 Bundesliga matches) and can cover any position in attack and midfield. Benfica will field their usual combinations, so they should not face any issues with cohesion.

Predicted Lineups

St. Gallen: Ati-Zigi; Vallci, Ambrosius, Schmidt; Csoboth, Quintillà, Witzig, Görtler; Toma, Möller, Akolo.

Benfica: Trubin; Bah, António Silva, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Florentino, João Neves; Rafa Silva, João Mário, Neres; Gonçalo Ramos.

Referee: Luca Pairetto (Italy)

Pairetto is known as a strict official. In the previous Serie A season, he was the most frequent card-drawer among his colleagues, averaging 5.3 yellow cards per game. On the international stage, the Italian does not give players any leeway either: he has officiated 11 matches, showing 4.36 yellow cards per game and recording 24.91 fouls per match.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Benfica to Win with a -1.5 Handicap at 2.08

Benfica are an extremely experienced European campaigner, undoubtedly among the top eight contenders for the Europa League title. In the qualifiers, they are clearly unmatched, let alone against their current opponent. St. Gallen have only reached this tournament four times in their history, and under Enrico Massena in the 2024/25 season, they performed poorly even at the Conference League level: one win and three losses in six matchdays, along with the worst defensive record (18 goals conceded). Their pre-season performances against Norwich and Lyon are also concerning. The Eagles' squad is valued higher than both of those clubs combined (€397 million versus €359 million). The Portuguese side have retained almost their entire core and even strengthened their attack, so we expect them to win by at least two goals.

Prediction on Goals: Both Teams to Score at 1.80

Nevertheless, St. Gallen can reasonably hope to find the net. In their previous European season, the Swiss side exchanged goals with Heidenheim (1:1), Vitória Guimarães (1:4), and Fiorentina (2:4), and recently managed to score three times against Lyon. The visitors' defense has lost some stability and cohesion, as they can no longer rely on Otamendi, who played every minute of all 14 matches in last season's Champions League (including qualifiers). His replacements are Lenglet, who has played just over 90 minutes in friendlies, and António Silva, who is negotiating a transfer to Bournemouth.

Starting lineups: St. Gallen vs Benfica

St. Gallen logoSt. Gallen3-5-2
Ati-Zigi
OkorojiStanicGaal
StevanovicBoukhalfaDaschnerGertlerVandermesh
BaldeWitzig
Out of squad:Neziri · Injury
Benfica logoBenfica4-2-3-1
Trubin
DahlLengletA. SilvaBa
FigueiredoManu
KaminskiSudakovR. Silva
Pavlidis
Out of squad:Prestianni · SuspendedBruma · InjuryRiosLukebakioAursnesSchjelderup

Match odds St. Gallen vs Benfica

Result (1X2)

X5.0517.821.37

Double chance

1X3.08X21.08121.17

Both teams to score

No1.93Yes1.76

Over

21.1931.8143.356.31.51.132.51.53.52.354.53.865.56.95

Under

23.8531.8941.2951.071.54.72.52.343.51.594.51.25.51.05

Handicap 1

05.5512.3621.3931.091.51.722.51.263.51.07

Handicap 2

01.08-11.55-22.6-35.3-1.51.94-2.53.2-3.55.9

Correct score

0:0180:180:27.30:39.20:415.250:5301:0231:19.11:281:310.751:417.51:5352:1222:217.252:3232:438

Predictions for St. Gallen vs Benfica

TF Temitope Fashola Over 5odds 6.30 Lost

I'm confident this match will be entertaining. I'm betting on goals because both teams push forward and leave space—exactly the recipe for a fun game. Expect end-to-end action and at least three total goals.

AB Anthony Bello Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.55 Won

Why not? I'm confident this bet will resolve positively. The core reasoning is straightforward—the conditions are favorable, and the data supports a clear outcome. There's no reason to doubt it.

AA Amara Abdullahi Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 1.98 Lost

Benfica will win this match comfortably, and the home side will simply be going through the motions. I'm confident in this outcome based on the clear gap in quality and motivation between the two teams.

SA Segun Ademola Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.19 Won

I expect goals in the first half. The home team has been showing productive attacking play in their recent friendlies, and I’m confident they’ll carry that momentum into the opening period.

CE Chinedu Eze Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 2.00 Lost

I'm confident Benfica can win with a comfortable handicap on goals. Their attacking strength and form make this a solid bet.

AA Ayodele Adebayo Under 3.5odds 1.60 Won

I'm confident this will be a low-scoring game with Benfica taking the win. The matchup favors a disciplined defensive approach, and Benfica's quality on the ball should be enough to secure three points without a goal fest.

IO Ikechukwu Ogunleye Result: 1odds 7.60 Won

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IB Ifeanyi Bello Yellow cards: Team 2 under 1.5odds 1.92 Won

I expect Benfica to receive few yellow cards in this match. The team consistently shows discipline and rarely picks up unnecessary bookings, which makes me confident this trend will continue. I'm backing them to keep a clean disciplinary record.

WT Wale Tanko Team 1 over 1odds 2.64 Won

I’m confident the home team will step up in front of their own crowd and score at least one goal. Their attacking play at home is consistently strong, and the support from the fans gives them a clear edge.

AA Aliyu Abubakar Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 2.00 Lost

I’m backing Benfica to win by at least two goals. They’re a Champions League-caliber side, proven by last season’s playoff battle with Real Madrid, and they finished just two points behind Sporting in a highly competitive Portuguese top two. Swiss club football is on a completely different level—last season no Swiss team made the Champions League top 36, and the year before Young Boys finished dead last with zero points and a 3–24 goal difference. St. Gallen is no stronger, and their preseason friendlies confirm it: 0–3 to Norwich, 3–6 to Lyon. Benfica will start their campaign with authority and put the tie to bed in the first leg.

PG Precious Garba Result: 1odds 7.60 Won

I searched extensively for a reliable predictor, going through over a dozen tipsters before finding a truly capable one. In just one month of working together, I've placed 18 exact score bets and every single one has won perfectly.

CL Chinedu Lamido Handicap 2 (-1)odds 1.51 Lost

Benfica went undefeated in the Portuguese league last season but still only finished third. I expect them to start the new campaign with a commanding victory, so I'm taking Benfica -1 on the handicap.

RA Rita Akintola Correct score 1:1odds 8.90 Lost

I'm backing Benfica to win this match. St. Gallen lack the quality and European experience to trouble a side of Benfica's caliber. The Portuguese team is in strong form and should control the game from start to finish. Expect a comfortable away victory.

CG Collins Garba Result: 1odds 7.20 Won

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AO Abubakar Olawale Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 2.05 Lost

I'm betting that Portugal will dominate their opponents away from home, but I'm not entirely ruling out a surprise. The team has the quality to pull off a convincing win, though the away factor always adds an element of risk.

SA Sunday Adamu Handicap 2 (-1)odds 1.59 Lost

Benfica has a clear edge in class and squad depth. For the Portuguese giants, building a comfortable lead before the return leg in Lisbon is critical, so their motivation for an emphatic result is at its peak. I see a high probability of the visitors winning by two or more goals.

Despite a strong past season, St. Gallen lacks the bench strength to sustain this level of intensity for the full 90 minutes. That’s why I’m confident in Benfica covering the spread.

IM Ibrahim Madu Corners: Team 2 over 5.5odds 1.64 Lost

I'm betting that Benfica will take at least 6 corners in this match. Their attacking style and home advantage typically lead to sustained pressure, creating multiple corner opportunities. Given their recent form and the opponent's defensive setup, I expect them to cross this threshold comfortably.

MA Mercy Abubakar Result: 2odds 1.41 Lost

I am confident that the second-place candidate will emerge victorious. The momentum has clearly shifted in their favor, and the latest developments solidify their path to winning.

PB Peter Balogun Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 2.10 Lost

I'm confident Benfica will win by two or more goals on the road. Their attacking depth and form are too much for the opponent, who have struggled defensively at home. A comfortable away victory is the most likely outcome.

ZO Zainab Okafor Over 3.5odds 2.42 Lost

I'm predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Both teams have shown consistent attacking intent in recent games, and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest goals are likely. The head-to-head record also supports a high-scoring affair, with several recent meetings exceeding this total.

AN Adewale Nwosu Team 2 over 2.5odds 2.36 Lost

I'm backing Porto here. They're the clear favorite, with superior squad depth and European experience compared to their opponent. Their recent form in domestic competition has been solid, and they tend to raise their level in these knockout-style fixtures. The gap in quality is simply too wide for the underdog to bridge over two legs.

TL Tunde Lamido Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.75 Won

I predict both teams will score. The attacking strengths on each side are too potent to be kept quiet, and defensive vulnerabilities suggest goals will flow at both ends. This bet aligns with the form and head-to-head history, so I'm confident it hits.

WN Wale Nwosu Team 2 under 2.5odds 1.56 Won

I believe Benfica's early-season matches will be low-scoring. The team is still finding its rhythm, and the first games of a new campaign rarely produce goal fests. I'm betting on under 2.5 goals in their opening fixtures.

NS Nneka Suleiman Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.81 Won

I predict with confidence that they will break through. The momentum and market conditions strongly support this outcome, driven by key indicators aligning in favor of a decisive move. My analysis points to sustained pressure and a clear catalyst for the breakthrough.

FL Folake Lamido Under 3.5odds 1.56 Won

Benfica will approach this away match with discipline and intelligence. The priority is to manage player fitness and secure progression to the next round. I expect a controlled, positive performance that gets the job done without unnecessary risks.

UN Usman Nnaji Team 2 under 2.5odds 1.56 Won

I'm going with the most reliable option: even a favorite with a weakened lineup rarely scores 3+ goals in their first official match of the season. The squad is still finding its rhythm, and the opening fixture tends to be tighter than expected.

VA Victor Anyanwu Over 3.5odds 2.42 Lost

I am confident in this forecast. I decided to take it because my analysis clearly points to this outcome. The reasoning is solid, and I expect the result to align with my prediction.

VA Victor Akintola Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.81 Won

I'm confident there will be 10 corners in this match. Benfica are seasoned European competitors, and their aggressive style will generate plenty of set-piece opportunities.

OB Obinna Bello Result: 2odds 1.40 Lost

I predict Benfica will win this match and secure a goal cushion before the return leg.

HA Hauwa Adeyemi Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 2.05 Lost

Mourinho is back at Benfica, and that changes everything. I'm confident they'll put five past the opponent—they'll do whatever it takes to impress him.

MB Maryam Bello Result: 2odds 1.40 Lost

I'm betting on Benfica to win this match. Their recent form has been strong, and they have the firepower to break down the opposition. I'm confident they'll get the job done.

ZM Zainab Madu Double chance: 1Xodds 2.94 Won

I'm confident St. Gallen will put up a strong fight in this match and can avoid defeat. They have the resilience to hold their ground, so backing them to not lose is the smart play.

AO Adewale Oni Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.75 Won

I'm confident Benfica will crush their opponents. Their attacking form is relentless, and the opposition's defense has been consistently shaky. Expect a dominant performance with a multi-goal margin.

IG Ifeoma Garba Result: 2odds 1.40 Lost

I find it strange to see Benfica in the Europa League, but I'm confident this is a stepping stone to at least the semi-finals. They have the quality and pedigree to go deep in this competition.

KS Kemi Salami Handicap 1 (1.5)odds 1.76 Won

I confidently predict that the Swiss will put up a strong fight. Their track record shows they thrive under pressure, and I see no reason they won't deliver when it matters most. This is a bet on their resilience and proven ability to compete at the highest level.

OO Obinna Ogundipe Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 2.00 Lost

I see Benfica as the clear superior in this matchup, and I’m confidently backing them to win comfortably. The gap in quality is too wide for the opponent to bridge.

AO Ayodele Olaniyan Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 1.83 Lost

I'm confident that the guests' individual quality is significantly higher. They have the clear edge in talent and depth, so I'm taking the minus handicap. The gap in class is too big to ignore, and this line offers strong value.

WA Wale Afolabi Corners: Team 1 over 3.5odds 1.99 Won

I'm confidently predicting that St. Gallen will take enough corners to push the total over the line. This match has all the makings of a high-energy, attacking game where both sides create chances from wide areas. The betting approach is straightforward: back the over on team corners for St. Gallen, as their style and the game script strongly favor a busy afternoon from the corner flag.

IO Ifeanyi Ogunleye Handicap 2 (-1.5)odds 1.82 Lost

Benfica is the clear favorite here. St. Gallen can only offer effort, but little else against the Portuguese side. I confidently predict Benfica to cover the -1.5 handicap.

FO Femi Ojo Over 2.5odds 1.48 Won

I’m confident we’ll see more than two goals in this matchup. Both sides are committed to attacking play, and defensive lapses have been frequent in recent games. The pace will be high, and with key forwards in form, I expect the net to bulge at least three times.

WA Wale Anyanwu Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.77 Won

I'm backing both teams to score in St. Gallen vs Benfica at 1.77. I firmly believe the home side will get on the scoresheet, and Benfica's firepower means they'll likely respond. This is a solid bet.

Match poster

St. Gallen vs Benfica — odds

❓ Frequently asked questions

When is the St. Gallen vs Benfica Europa League qualifier?

The match takes place on 23 July 2026 at 19:00.

Which team is the favorite to win?

Benfica is the clear favorite, with the prediction suggesting they will cover a -1.5 handicap at odds of 2.08.

What is the recommended bet for this match?

The main prediction is Benfica to win with a -1.5 handicap (odds 2.08). Additionally, both teams to score is offered at 1.80.

Are there any key player absences for either side?

Benfica have lost captain Nicolás Otamendi, but Clément Lenglet is expected to take his place. St. Gallen sold their top scorer Alessandro Vogt but signed Andrin Hunziker.

How strict is the referee Luca Pairetto?

Luca Pairetto is known for showing many cards – he averaged 5.3 yellow cards per game in Serie A and 4.36 in international matches.