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Sturm Graz vs Hearts: prediction and odds

Europe Champions League · Europe · 21 July 2026
Sturm Graz logoSturm Graz
4:0
1st half: 1:0
21.07.2026 19:30
Hearts logoHearts

Match events

Jon Stankovic1:0
4′
47′
🟨Oisín McEntee
Jayland Mitchell2:0
50′
Luka Weinhändler3:0
53′
Jon Stankovic🟨
56′
Jurgen Heil4:0
59′
86′
🟨Amadou Ba-Si

Match statistics: Sturm Graz vs Hearts

Sturm GrazHearts
2.77xG (expected goals)1.43
33Ball possession, %67
20Shots19
6Shots on target6
4Corners12
18Fouls13
0Offsides2
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
83Attacks96
31Dangerous attacks69

💡 Match preview Sturm Graz vs Hearts

In the second qualifying round of the Champions League, Sturm Graz host Hearts at their home stadium. The Austrians boast extensive European experience, while the Scots return to Europe's premier tournament after 20 years. Can the hosts leverage this advantage and build a comfortable lead before the return leg?

Tactical Analysis: Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz finished second in the Austrian Bundesliga last season, just two points behind the champions. Despite this, they secured a spot in the Champions League qualifiers. Coach Fabio Ingolich began preparations in mid-June, playing six friendlies with mixed results: wins against Mura (5-0), Kalsdorf (4-1), Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5-1), and Pogon Szczecin (1-0), a draw with Kosice (2-2), and a loss to LNZ Cherkasy (2-6).

However, preparation was hampered by injuries. The key creative trio—Otar Kiteishvili, Gizo Mamageishvili, and Filip Rozga—missed most of the training camp. The first two only featured in the last friendly and may help in the upcoming match, but Rozga is still recovering. Additionally, the club hasn't replaced left-back Emir Karic, who moved to MLS this summer. On a positive note, they secured a loan deal for striker Nelson Weiper from Mainz, who brings Bundesliga and European experience. Standing over 190 cm, he adds much-needed physical presence in the box.

Tactical Analysis: Hearts

Last season nearly ended in triumph for Hearts. They came close to breaking the dominance of Rangers and Celtic, which has lasted since 1985, but lost to Celtic (1-3) on the final day, settling for silver medals. This was followed by upheaval: head coach Derek McInnes and captain Lawrence Shankland (also the top scorer) left for Rangers, and starting goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow moved to Mainz.

After losing key figures, Hearts underwent radical changes. New coach Wouter Vrancken, named Coach of the Year in Belgium last season, brings an aggressive, high-pressing style. The club signed around 10 players, including goalkeeper Bo Reis from Waasland-Beveren (to replace Schwolow), wingers Kelvin Miller from Falkirk (best assister in the previous Scottish Championship) and Josh McPake from St Johnstone (19 goals last season)—both adding flair and variety to attacks. In friendlies, the revamped side had mixed results: a loss to Livingston (1-2) but wins over Arbroath (2-1) and Rayo Vallecano (2-1).

Referee: Gergo Bogar (Hungary)

The Hungarian referee employs a strict officiating style, frequently using cards to control the game. Last season, he officiated 30 matches, showing 135 yellow cards (average 4.5 per game), sending off 5 players, and awarding 10 penalties. Bogar has experience in the Champions League, with 4 matches, 19 yellow cards (4.75 per game).

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Despite squad losses and inconsistent preparation, Sturm Graz appear as favorites for this tie. They have the home advantage, where under Ingolich, they are unbeaten in official matches: five wins and four draws. Moreover, the hosts have retained their core, while Hearts are in a rebuilding phase, having lost key players including their top scorer and captain, and changed coaches. Therefore, we predict a win for Sturm Graz at odds of 1.83.

Goals Prediction: Friendlies showed both teams have defensive issues: Sturm Graz failed to keep a clean sheet in four of six matches, and Hearts in all three. However, the Austrians maintained high scoring, finding the net in every game with 19 goals total (average 3.16). The Scots, despite changes, also scored in all their friendlies. We expect this trend to continue, recommending a bet on both teams to score at odds of 1.73.

Match odds Sturm Graz vs Hearts

Result (1X2)

X3.7611.7824.4

Double chance

1X1.21X22.04121.28

Both teams to score

No2.06Yes1.66

Over

11.0121.3332.1744.258.41.51.22.51.753.52.664.54.855.59

Under

1923.0231.6141.1651.021.53.842.52.073.51.394.51.125.51.01

Handicap 1

01.3311.03-12.26-24.81.51.01-1.52.88-2.55.5

Handicap 2

03.1511.5121.12-17.61.51.322.51.08-1.58.5

Correct score

0:0130:113.50:2251:07.81:16.71:213.51:3362:092:182:213.52:3383:014.53:113.53:2234:0304:1284:248

Predictions for Sturm Graz vs Hearts

FI Folake Ibe Over 2odds 1.29 Won

I'm backing over 2 goals in the match between Sturm Graz and Hearts. These teams have never met before, so it's a pure first encounter. Sturm play aggressive, high-pressing football at home, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Their key players are fit, and they dominate at the Merkur Arena. Hearts, missing captain Craig Halkett due to injury, rely on fast counter-attacks but concede about 1.4 goals away. Their last match was a 1-3 loss. The cool, humid weather in Graz suits the visitors, but I expect both sides to contribute to a game with at least three goals. My bet is total goals over 2.

IA Ikechukwu Amadi Result: 1odds 1.70 Won

I am confident that Storm is the favorite. Their form and matchup advantages make them the clear pick.

SO Sani Okonkwo Result: 1odds 1.72 Won

I'm confident that Scottish teams will continue to struggle on the road. Their away form is consistently poor, and I see no reason for that to change in upcoming matches.

JM Joseph Mohammed Team 2 over 1.5odds 3.15 Lost

I'm backing Hearts to avoid defeat against Sturm Graz. This isn't just a hunch—it's based on the real transformation happening at the Scottish club since Tony Bloom became a shareholder. He's brought his data-driven recruitment model and the ambition is clear: challenge Celtic and Rangers for the title. Last season, Hearts led the league for most of the campaign and only lost the championship in the final round. That wasn't a fluke. They've earned their spot in the Champions League qualifiers, and they're not here to make up the numbers.

Sturm Graz may have more recent European experience, but they're not a class above. If anything, their aggressive home approach will leave gaps, and Hearts have the firepower to exploit that. The Austrians will push forward, and that plays right into Hearts' hands. I expect the visitors to score and come away with at least a draw.

DG Daniel Garba Corners: Team 2 over 4.5odds 2.05 Won

I see Hearts playing a simple, direct game. Away from home, they'll lean heavily on set pieces to create their best chances.

SG Stanley Garba Result: Xodds 3.82 Lost

The strength of the championships is comparable, and the visitors are capable of holding the draw.

FY Funke Yusuf Under 2.5odds 2.07 Lost

I'm going with the under in this game. Most bettors will chase the over, but I see a low-scoring affair that stays below the total. The defenses are stronger than the market gives them credit for, and the pace should be slow.

AK Abubakar Kalu Result: 1odds 1.78 Won

I'm backing Sturm to win. Their form and momentum give them a clear edge heading into this matchup, and I see them controlling the game from start to finish. The odds are too good to pass up, and I'm confident they'll get the job done.

CE Chinedu Eze Result: 1odds 1.81 Won

I expect the home team to dominate the visitors with their superior experience. Their familiarity with the pitch and composure in high-stakes situations will be decisive, overwhelming the less seasoned opponent from the first whistle.

RS Rita Sani Double chance: X2odds 2.05 Lost

I'm confident the Scottish team will come to play for a draw. They have the discipline and defensive structure to pull it off.

SB Stella Bankole Result: 1odds 1.76 Won

I'm predicting a win for Sturm in this match. My confidence is based on their strong recent form and tactical discipline, which should give them a clear edge over the opposition. Simple as that—I see them taking all three points.

GA Godwin Adamu Double chance: X2odds 2.05 Lost

I'm backing Sturm to come out on top against Hearts. Hearts nearly pulled off a sensational Scottish title run, but they fell short in the end. Sturm, on the other hand, is a tough opponent that the British side will struggle to handle. I see Sturm overpowering them here.

IA Ibrahim Afolabi Result: 1odds 1.76 Won

I’m backing Sturm Graz to win the first leg against Hearts. They’re the stronger side, especially at home, and their recent form in European qualifiers gives me confidence. Hearts have struggled on the road in similar matchups, and I don’t see them turning that around here. The home advantage and quality gap should be decisive.

SE Sunday Emenike Over 2.5odds 1.76 Won

I am betting on an over in the match between Sturm Graz and Hearts. Both teams have shown attacking intent in their recent games, and Sturm Graz's home advantage should push the pace, while Hearts are capable of scoring on the road. Defensive lapses are likely from both sides, so I expect a goalfest with at least three total goals. This bet is based on the trends and the stakes involved in the competition, so it's a confident pick.

BM Bukola Madu Corners: Result: 2odds 2.89 Won

I predict that Storm Graz will defeat Hearts on July 21st at 21:30. The match will be dominated by long balls and crosses, typical of an English-style aerial battle. Hearts' defense struggles against physical, high-pressing sides, and Graz's home advantage and direct approach will exploit that weakness cleanly.

AO Anthony Obiora Over 3.5odds 2.70 Pending

I expect this to be a fast-paced football match with plenty of goals. The attacking play and defensive gaps will lead to a high-scoring game, so betting on over 2.5 goals is a confident call.

KA Kelechi Amadi Result: Xodds 3.80 Pending

I’m betting that Giselle will win. Her recent performances have been consistently strong, and she’s shown the ability to adapt under pressure. The competition is tough, but her track record gives me confidence she’ll come out on top.

SS Suleiman Sani Result: 1odds 1.76 Pending

I'm betting against Hearts here. They had a tough end to last season, but Sturm Graz is simply the stronger side with more European pedigree. The Austrian champions are well-organized and have the quality to control this match. Hearts will fight, but I don't see them avoiding defeat. Sturm Graz wins this one.

GN Godwin Nwosu Handicap 1 (-1)odds 2.26 Pending

I am confident that Storm will dominate at home. The Scottish underdog has lost its recognized leaders and lacks any real cohesion—Hearts are simply not ready to compete here and now.

EO Esther Olaniyan Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.95 Pending

I'm betting that the second half of this match will see at least two goals. The momentum often shifts after halftime, with teams pushing harder for results, and the attacking patterns we've seen so far suggest more chances will come. This is a confident call based on the game's flow and scoring potential.

KO Kunle Obiora Result: 1odds 1.78 Pending

I expect the home team to win this match. Their lineup is simply stronger, and that gives them a clear edge over the visitors.

YN Yemi Nwosu Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.88 Pending

I’m backing Sturm Graz to win by at least two goals against Hearts. Sturm Graz are the stronger side, especially at home, and their attacking depth should overwhelm a Hearts team that has struggled defensively on the European stage. The odds of 2.88 offer great value for a handicap that I expect to cover comfortably.

KO Kelechi Oni Result: 1odds 1.78 Pending

I predict the home team will win, but this won't be a walk in the park. Both sides are in for a tough battle, and the match will be hard-fought from start to finish.

AA Amara Abdullahi Result: 1odds 1.78 Pending

I'm confident Storm will win at home and build a lead for the away leg.

DI Dele Idris Team 1 over 1.5odds 1.78 Pending

I'm backing the home team to score. Playing at home gives them a clear edge, and their attack is well-suited to breaking down this defense. They have the momentum to find the net.

DN Daniel Nwosu Handicap 1 (-1)odds 2.26 Pending

Austria's class and the advantage of playing their first home match of the campaign demand that they build a lead before the trip to Edinburgh. I'm confident they'll deliver.

DA David Afolabi Double chance: X2odds 2.04 Pending

I'm not writing off the guests. The assault is far less threatening than many assume.

SO Samuel Obi Result: 2odds 4.40 Pending

I predict Trump will win. The polling data consistently underestimates his support, and the enthusiasm gap among his base is real. The media narrative doesn't match what I see on the ground.

SO Sani Obiora Over 1.5 (2nd half)odds 1.94 Pending

After the break, I'm confident both sides will find the net twice here. The pace and chances we've seen so far point to more goals coming, and with the momentum shifting, a two-goal total for the opponents feels like a solid bet.

BA Babatunde Adamu Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.84 Pending

I’m confident that West Ham will have more corners than Brighton. Both teams are aggressive in attack, and West Ham’s style under Moyes emphasizes wide play and crosses, leading to frequent corner opportunities. Brighton, while technical, often concedes corners when defending deep. Recent matches show West Ham averaging more corners per game, especially at home. The data strongly supports this outcome.

KA Kayode Adeyemi Correct score 2:1odds 7.90 Pending

I’m predicting the home team will win this match, most likely with a 2-1 scoreline. It’s going to be a hard-fought battle, but I’m confident they’ll edge it out.

EO Emmanuel Obi Corners: Over 9.5odds 1.84 Pending

I predict that both teams will combine for over 8.5 corners, because they consistently send in a high volume of crosses from the flanks, which directly leads to corner kicks. This pattern is reliable and should continue throughout the match.

AM Aliyu Madu Handicap 1 (-2)odds 4.85 Pending

I am confident that the second truck assault will occur within the next month. My reasoning is based on the tactical lessons from the first attempt and the persistent vulnerability of the target. The core of the bet is that this specific method will be employed again, and I see a high probability of it happening.

SA Stella Afolabi Corners: Team 1 over 5.5odds 2.07 Pending

I'm betting on Sturm to win. They have a clear advantage, and the numbers back it up.

IA Ibrahim Adeyemi Result: 1odds 1.78 Pending

I'm confidently betting on Sturm to win. Right now, they are simply the stronger team compared to Hearts.

BA Bukola Adewale Result: 1odds 1.78 Pending

I believe the assault is imminent. The operational tempo, logistical buildup, and recent repositioning of forces all point to a decisive push within the next 48 hours. The enemy’s defensive lines are stretched thin, and our intelligence confirms a critical window of vulnerability—this is not speculation, it’s reading the battlefield correctly. The storm is coming, and I’m backing it fully.

VO Victoria Onyeka Corners: Team 2 over 4.5odds 2.05 Pending

I’m confident Hearts will cover the corner kick line here. They’ve been solid from set pieces, consistently generating enough chances to beat the spread. The matchup favors their attacking style, and I expect them to maintain that edge throughout the match.

AM Aisha Madu Corners: Team 1 over 5odds 1.80 Pending

I'm betting on the home team's corners. The Scots tend to focus on defense when playing away, which naturally limits their own attacking corners and gives the hosts more opportunities to push forward and earn set pieces.

TO Titi Olaniyan Team 2 over 1odds 2.00 Pending

Austria may be the favorites, but I'm not writing off Scotland. Their motivation is off the charts as they fight for a place in the Champions League group stage, so I fully expect at least one goal from them. That's more than realistic.

MI Michael Igwe Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.66 Pending

I expect a high-scoring game with plenty of goals. There's no clear favorite here, so both sides will go for it, leading to an open exchange. I'm confident we'll see multiple goals.

HO Halima Obiora Double chance: X2odds 2.04 Pending

I confidently predict that the visitors will not lose this match, allowing them to return to Europe with their heads held high. Their resilience and tactical discipline give me every reason to believe they can secure at least a draw.

ZE Zainab Emenike Handicap 1 (-1)odds 2.28 Pending

I’m backing Sturm Graz to win this one. They’re an experienced European side, and at home, they simply should be getting the job done. Hearts, on the other hand, have lost their manager and top scorer—two massive blows that leave them vulnerable. This is a clear opportunity for Sturm to take control, and I expect them to deliver.

OO Olusegun Ogundipe Result: 1odds 1.79 Pending

I'm betting on Sturm Graz to win at home in the first qualifying match against Hearts. I don't expect a blowout, but both teams could score.

OS Obinna Sani Under 0.5 (1st half)odds 3.00 Pending

I'm confident that Sturm Graz and Hearts will not score any goals before halftime. Neither side has shown enough attacking sharpness early in matches to break the deadlock in the first 45 minutes.

SA Samuel Akintola Corners: Over 10.5odds 2.36 Pending

I expect a high number of corners in this match—specifically, at least eleven. The attacking style of both sides and their tendency to win set pieces from wide areas point to plenty of corner opportunities.

GO Gift Ojo Double chance: X2odds 2.00 Pending

I expect Hearts not to lose. They're a team with real character, and that grit will keep them from falling short.

AA Aisha Ademola Handicap 1 (-1.5)odds 2.92 Pending

I’m confident that Schuttrum will cover the +2 handicap at home. Their strong home form and defensive resilience make this a solid bet.

CS Chukwuma Sani Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.48 Pending

I confidently predict that the match between Sturm and Hearts will see goals in the first half. This is a straightforward call based on the teams' attacking intent and early-game dynamics.

JK Joseph Kalu Team 2 over 1.5odds 2.99 Pending

I'm confidently predicting that we'll see plenty of goals in this matchup. The attacking firepower on both sides is far too strong for defenses to contain, and recent form shows no signs of this changing. Expect an open, high-tempo game where chances come thick and fast. The data clearly points to both teams finding the net multiple times. Betting on over 2.5 goals is the smart play here—this one is shaping up to be a goal-fest.

UM Usman Musa Over 1.5 (1st half)odds 2.48 Pending

I'm going for the risk in the Eurotour competition. I'm confident I can beat the result with a bold approach.

OS Obinna Salami Under 0.5 (1st half)odds 3.00 Pending

I believe Sturm Graz will push hard at home, but the first half will end 0–0.

TE Tunde Ekwueme Result: Xodds 3.70 Pending

I'm backing the draw between Sturm Graz and Hearts. Neither side has been convincing lately, and European matches between evenly matched teams often end level. Sturm Graz struggle to break down disciplined defenses, while Hearts lack the firepower to win away. A low-scoring stalemate is the most likely outcome.

BL Blessing Lawal Result: 1odds 1.78 Pending

I am betting on Sturm to win in the UEFA Champions League. Their form and determination make this the clear call.

YO Yusuf Ojo Over 1odds 1.01 Pending

I'm confident this match will be high-scoring. Both teams have shown a clear tendency to attack and struggle defensively, so expect plenty of chances and goals. The conditions favor an open game, and I see no reason for a low-scoring affair.

RO Ruth Oladipo Over 1odds 1.01 Pending

I predict this match will be high-scoring. Both teams have strong attacking records and frequent defensive lapses, so I expect multiple goals from the start.

AS Ayodele Sowole Under 5.5odds 1.01 Pending

I'm confident this match will be low-scoring. There won't be many goals. Both sides are likely to play cautiously, and the attacking opportunities will be limited. Expect a tight, defensive affair.

GO Gloria Ogundipe Team 2 over 1odds 2.04 Pending

Hearts are clearly underestimated in this matchup. I'm confident they can win here.

YO Yusuf Oni Team 1 over 2odds 2.48 Won

I'm predicting over 2.5 goals in the Sturm Graz match. They are consistently high-scoring at home, and I see no reason for that trend to change here. I'm taking the risk on this bet.

SB Segun Bankole Handicap 1 (-1)odds 2.26 Pending

I'm backing Sturm Graz with a +2 goal handicap in this match. This bet covers a loss by up to 2 goals, so even if they're beaten by a narrow margin, the bet still wins. Given their solid home form and ability to stay competitive against stronger sides, I see this as a safe and confident pick.

Match poster

Sturm Graz vs Hearts — odds