Toulouse vs Real Sociedad: prediction and odds

Real Sociedad Gather Momentum Ahead of Toulouse Friendly

Real Sociedad are building impressive form ahead of the new season. In their latest pre-season friendly, the Basque side put four goals past a strong Aston Villa outfit. Now they face a youthful Toulouse, whose average age barely exceeds 22. Can the inexperienced French side, under a new head coach, spring a surprise on the visitors?

Toulouse Searching for a New Direction

Toulouse finished the 2025/26 Ligue 1 season outside the European qualification spots. This did not sit well with the club’s board, prompting a managerial change in the summer as Jens Bertel Askou took the reins. Under the Dane, “Les Violets” have played just one friendly so far, a 1-1 draw against modest Rodez. The new coach’s ideas have yet to be fully absorbed. Toulouse looked unthreatening in that match, losing the battle for shots on goal and shots on target.

Beyond the difficult weather conditions of that game, this passivity may stem from the departure of a key attacking asset in the transfer window. The club sold forward Emersonn (6 goals, 2 assists in 27 Ligue 1 appearances last season). Also departing were wing-backs Warren Kamanzi (24 games) and Djibril Sidibé (3 goals, 4 assists in 32 matches), as well as striker Frank Magri (5 goals, 1 assist in 17 outings). The gaps on the flanks of the defence were quickly filled, with the acquisitions of right-back Chris Tape and left-back Ismail Diallo. Tape has already begun his adaptation, playing the full 90 minutes against Rodez.

Ahead of that first friendly, the coaching staff could count on almost all of their strongest players. Only left-back Ilyes Aradj is in the treatment room, an absence already covered by the aforementioned Tape.

Basques Moving Away from Defensive Traditions

The club from San Sebastián endured a disastrous end to last season, failing to win any of their final eight La Liga matches. However, their triumph in the Copa del Rey saved the campaign, securing European football and allowing Pellegrino Matarazzo to keep his job. He arrived at the club in the winter of 2025 and began implementing a complex, unpredictable style of football. To ensure the players fully absorbed his ideas, the team cut their holidays short and have already played four friendlies. The first two were underwhelming – a defeat to French side Pau (0-1) and a draw with Racing Santander (1-1), who won Segunda Division and earned promotion to La Liga last season. But then Real Sociedad beat Wolverhampton Wanderers (2-1) and Aston Villa (4-2).

The match against the Birmingham side was a perfect embodiment of Matarazzo’s football. The Basques scored twice on fast transitions, once from a set piece, and once after a prolonged build-up. It was all very Pellegrino – unpredictable, fast, and vertical. This result was made possible, in part, by the return of key players after their holidays. The “txuri-urdin” have kept their core almost entirely intact this summer. Only three players left the club, and just one of them was a regular starter – attacking midfielder Brais Méndez (6 goals, 2 assists in 29 La Liga matches). The team has been in no rush to strengthen, with only two young defenders arriving to provide depth. Nonetheless, one of the new signings, defender Iñaki Rupérez, has already scored a goal against Villa.

Ahead of the upcoming match, the Real Sociedad coach can count on almost all of his strongest players. Wingers Gonçalo Guedes and Takefusa Kubo have returned to the squad, central midfielder Luka Sučić has been integrated into the main group before the Toulouse game, and Carlos Soler has already found the net. A significant absence is captain Mikel Oyarzabal, who is resting after the 2026 World Cup.

Predicted Lineups

Toulouse (4-4-2): Restes – Messali, Koumbassa, Nicolaisen, Tape – Azizi, Vossa, Casseres, Gboho – Hidalgo, Vignolo

Unavailable: Aradj (injury)

Head Coach: Jens Bertel Askou

Real Sociedad (4-3-3): Remiro – Aramburu, Elorsa, Martin, Gomez – Herrera, Sučić, Soler – Kubo, Óskarsson, Barrenetxea

Unavailable: Odriozola (injury), Oyarzabal (rest)

Head Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Real Sociedad to win at 2.10

Real Sociedad enter this match as favourites, and there is every reason to believe this status is justified. Toulouse look very raw – the players are still adapting to the new coach’s demands and cannot rely on one of their main attacking assets. Real Sociedad, on the other hand, have kept their core intact, welcomed back most of their key figures, and are already displaying the football their coach wants. The Basques are genuinely unpredictable, leaving opposing defenders confused. Aston Villa already felt this effect. The less experienced and less established defenders of Toulouse are likely to make even more mistakes under such pressure. It is worth noting that the wins over the English clubs were achieved away from home, so the absence of their own fans is no obstacle for the Basques. Given that the first-choice players are expected to start rather than come off the bench, backing a Real Sociedad victory at 2.10 seems sensible.

Total Goals Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.66

We expect a high-scoring match. Real Sociedad have scored seven goals in four friendlies (an average of 1.75 per game). However, they have not kept a clean sheet in any of those matches. By focusing on vertical, fast attacks, the Spaniards often neglect their defence, meaning Toulouse’s youngsters will have chances to find the net. Backing both teams to score – Yes at 1.66 is the call.