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Venezia vs Fiorentina: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Italy Serie A · Italy · 11 September 2026
Venezia logoVenezia
vs
11.09.2026 19:45
Fiorentina logoFiorentina

💡 Match preview Venezia vs Fiorentina

By Tunde Ogundipe — Football expert covering Premier League, MLS, J1 League, and more

Round 4 of Serie A kicks off with a peculiar clash: two sides still searching for their first points of the campaign. Fiorentina boast a far richer pedigree in Italian football, yet their head-to-head record against Venezia tells a completely different story. Over the last five league meetings, the Viola have lost three times and managed only a single victory.

Tactical Analysis: Venezia

Giovanni Strop-pa’s attacking philosophy worked wonders in Serie B, but in the top flight his teams consistently come undone. Venezia appear to be no exception, having lost all three opening fixtures. A trip to Milan was always going to end in defeat (0–2), but back-to-back losses against direct relegation rivals Lecce (0–2) and Frosinone (2–3) have pushed the coach to the brink. The most alarming statistic is the sheer volume of chances created against goalkeeper Aleksandar Stanković: Venezia concede an average of 2.3 expected goals (xGA) per match, the second-worst mark in the division.

Defensive frailties are compounded by a mounting injury crisis. Before the previous round, two centre-backs – Marin Šverko and Bartol Franjić – were already sidelined. Now Armel Bella-Kotchap, a €7 million summer signing from Verona, has joined them in the treatment room. Two-time Serie A champion with Napoli, João Jesus, arrived as a free agent but still lacks match fitness. As a result, Strop-pa will likely be forced to field a low‑quality back three of Schingtienne, Halal, and Haps from the start.

Tactical Analysis: Fiorentina

The first managerial sacking of the Serie A season has already taken place in Florence. Fiorentina underwent a near‑complete squad overhaul in the summer, bringing in 13 new players, but Fabio Grosso failed to mould them into a cohesive unit. Now the task falls to Paolo Vannoli, a favourite of the Tuscan crowd who saved the Viola from relegation last term. The 54‑year‑old must once again lift the team off the bottom – they sit 20th after defeats to Roma (0–4), Frosinone (0–3), and Torino (1–2).

The 4‑3‑3 formation worked well last spring, so Vannoli is unlikely to change it. However, he will need to rebuild the defensive structure from scratch. The centre‑back pairing of Vieri and Drăgușin looked disjointed in the opening matches, while the full‑backs pushed forward too aggressively, leaving space in behind. Consequently, Vannoli is expected to deploy the tried‑and‑tested back‑line from last season: Dodo, Pongračić, and Ranieri, with Valdepeñas – on loan from Real Madrid – slotting in on the left.

Predicted Lineups

Venezia (3‑5‑2): Stanković – Schingtienne, Halal, Haps – Ayno, Peres, Busio, Fernandes, Correia – Yeboah, Adams.

Unavailable: Šverko, Adorante, Franjić, Bella‑Kotchap (all injured); Moreno, Bašić, João Jesus (all doubtful).

Head coach: Giovanni Strop‑pa.

Fiorentina (4‑3‑3): De Gea – Dodo, Pongračić, Ranieri, Valdepeñas – N’Dour, Fagioli, Atta – Mastantuono, Beto, Gonçalves.

Unavailable: Parisi, Ulai (both injured).

Head coach: Paolo Vannoli.

Prediction and Bet

A disastrous start to the season has inflated the odds on Fiorentina beating a newly‑promoted side – and we recommend taking advantage. The gulf in individual quality between the two squads remains vast, and the visitors are well equipped to punish Venezia’s reckless, underdog‑style approach. Moreover, the Viola arrive at the Pierluigi Penzo stadium buoyed by the emotional boost of Vannoli’s appointment, under whom they lost only one of their last 11 matches last season. Back Fiorentina to win at 2.38.

Goals prediction: Serie A has been unusually high‑scoring this year, and both these teams are contributing to the trend. Venezia’s matches average exactly three goals, while Fiorentina’s boast an even higher 3.33. Therefore, over 2.5 total goals at 1.80 also looks appealing.

Tunde Ogundipe
Tunde Ogundipe
Football expert covering Premier League, MLS, J1 League, and more

Tunde Ogundipe is a football expert with extensive experience analyzing top leagues including the Premier League, MLS, J1 League, Scottish Premiership, and the Johan Cruijff Shield. His analysis focuses on team form, player lineups, shot statistics, and tactical adjustments, with careful consideration of fixture congestion and travel. He approaches predictions with a disciplined, data-driven method, evaluating all relevant factors without overreliance on single metrics.

All articles by this author →

The editorial prediction is provided for informational purposes only and should not be treated as a direct call to action. Every reader should do their own analysis before deciding on a bet.

Probable lineups: Venezia vs Fiorentina

Venezia logoVenezia3-5-2
Stankovic
HapsKhalalSaint-Étienne
CorreiaFernandezBusioPerezAino
AdamsYeboah
Out of squad:Šverko · InjuryAdorante · InjuryFranjic · InjuryBella-Kotchap · Injury
Fiorentina logoFiorentina4-3-3
De Gea
ValdepeñasRanieriPongracicDodo
AttaFagioliN'Dour
GoncalvesBetoMastantuono
Out of squad:Parisi · InjuryUlayi · Injury

Match odds Venezia vs Fiorentina

Result (1X2)

X3.3613.0622.42

Double chance

1X1.61X21.41121.36

Both teams to score

No2.19Yes1.6

Over

11.0121.3532.2744.551.51.222.51.83.52.834.55.25

Under

18.922.9731.5741.141.53.72.52.033.51.364.51.09

Handicap 1

02.1611.2421.01-15.251.51.15-1.56.05

Handicap 2

01.711.12-13.56-28.71.51.07-1.54.45

Correct score

0:0120:18.80:212.250:3231:010.251:15.81:28.81:317.51:4432:0162:110.252:211.52:3253:0343:1233:2293:348

Predictions for Venezia vs Fiorentina

DY Daniel Yusuf Result: 2odds 2.41 Pending

Fiorentina will leave Venice with all three points in this Serie A meeting. The away win at 2.41 is the play, and I'm not overthinking it.

CS Chibuzo Shehu Result: 2odds 2.40 Pending

Fiorentina's long-awaited away win is finally within reach against Venezia. I'm backing them to take all three points at a solid 2.40 – the price reflects the doubt, but I see them breaking the streak and delivering a confident performance.

VI Victor Igwe Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.50 Pending

Venezia’s home fixture against a woefully out-of-form Fiorentina is a clear opportunity to back the hosts in the attacking market. The visitors look stuck in a deep slump, and the boost from playing in front of their own fans should push Venezia forward. I’m taking the home side to score at least twice, with Team 1 over 1.5 at 2.50 offering solid value.

CS Chukwuma Sani Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.50 Pending

Venezia against Fiorentina at home in Serie A. I’m backing the hosts to score at least twice. With odds of 2.50, this is a solid value bet for a team capable of taking their chances in front of their own fans.

Fiorentina’s defense has been inconsistent on the road, and Venezia has shown enough bite in attack to exploit that. Two goals from the home side is a realistic target here.

PB Peter Balogun Result: 2odds 2.40 Pending

Fiorentina have looked off the pace lately, but that can't last forever. It's time for the Viola to step up and deliver a result, and I'm backing them to claim a much-needed victory over Venezia here. The odds of 2.40 are well worth taking for a side that should have enough quality to get the job done.

OS Oluwaseun Sani Corners: Result: 2odds 2.00 Pending

Fiorentina will come out on top in the corner count against Venezia in this Serie A fixture. That’s the bet I’m backing — the visitors to win the corner battle at 2.00.

CA Chukwuma Adekunle Result: 2odds 2.42 Pending

Fiorentina’s overdue for a win, and this matchup against Venezia looks like the right moment. I’m backing the visitors to get the job done.

DA Dele Adebayo Handicap 2 (0)odds 1.70 Pending

Venezia and Fiorentina meet in Serie A with both sides pointless after three rounds: the hosts have scored 2 and conceded 7, while the visitors are even worse at 1:9. Fiorentina have already responded to that dismal start by sacking Fabio Grosso and bringing back Paolo Vanoli, a move that can work in their favour.

Fiorentina are stronger on paper, but I'm not touching a clean away win. The sensible bet is Fiorentina with a level handicap (0) at 1.70 — any victory wins the bet, a draw returns the stake. Venezia have taken the last two Serie A meetings on their home turf (1:0, 2:1), yet the coaching change gives the visitors just enough hope.

BL Biodun Lamido Team 1 over 1.5odds 2.47 Pending

Fiorentina come to Venice, and I see Venezia scoring at least twice. The odds at 2.47 are too good to pass up. Venezia have the attacking firepower to break through Fiorentina's defense, especially at home where they play with more confidence. This isn't a fluke pick—it's based on how Venezia set up and Fiorentina's tendency to concede on the road. Backing Venezia over 1.5 goals is the smart play here.

CO Chinedu Okoro Corners: Result: 2odds 2.00 Pending

I'm betting on Fiorentina to take more corners than Venezia, but their recent displays leave a lot to be desired. Watching them, I can't help but feel they're on a direct path toward Serie B.

D derbyace Corners: Over 9.5odds 2.67 Pending

Venezia and Fiorentina both play attacking football, which should lead to plenty of corner opportunities. I'm backing the total corners to go over 9.5 at a solid 2.67.

CD Chibuzo Danjuma Handicap 2 (0)odds 1.71 Pending

Fiorentina have a point to prove here, and I’m backing them to get it done. After a shaky start, they’ll be desperate to bounce back, and facing Venezia gives them the perfect chance. I’m taking Fiorentina with a zero-goal handicap at 1.71 — they should avoid defeat, and likely win outright.

CI Chukwuma Igwe Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.60 Pending

Match poster

Venezia vs Fiorentina — odds

❓ Frequently asked questions

When and where is the Venezia vs Fiorentina match?

The match is on 11 September 2026 at 19:45 at the Pierluigi Penzo stadium in Venice.

What is the recommended bet for this match?

The editorial recommends backing Fiorentina to win at odds of 2.38, and also suggests over 2.5 total goals at 1.80.

Why are both teams desperate for points?

Both Venezia and Fiorentina have lost all three opening fixtures and are still searching for their first points of the Serie A season.

What are the key injury problems for Venezia?

Venezia have several defenders out: Marin Šverko, Bartol Franjić, and Armel Bella-Kotchap are injured, while João Jesus lacks match fitness. This forces a makeshift back three.

Who is the new Fiorentina coach and how has he performed?

Paolo Vannoli has replaced Fabio Grosso. He saved Fiorentina from relegation last season and lost only one of his last 11 matches in charge.

What is the head-to-head record between these teams?

In the last five league meetings, Fiorentina have lost three times and won only once against Venezia.