Ventura County vs San Jose Earthquakes: prediction and odds

The Ventura County Fusion will host the San Jose Earthquakes II in an MLS NEXT Pro clash, a rematch of a fixture already played this season. Recent form paints contrasting pictures: the hosts arrive on a winning streak, while the visitors alternate between a resounding victory and frustrating defeats.

Tactical Analysis: Ventura County

Ventura County’s recent run, according to metaStatistics, shows three wins and two losses. In their last outing, they confidently dispatched Los Angeles FC 2 with a 2-0 scoreline, seizing control through 67% possession and a barrage of 18 shots, 7 of which were on target. While the opponent also carved out chances (2 shots on target and 2 big chances created), Ventura County kept a clean sheet, a testament to their defensive organization.

Looking at their broader body of work at home, Ventura County’s attacking output is notable. They recorded emphatic 3-1 wins over both Real Monarchs and Houston Dynamo 2. In the Houston match, they generated a staggering 22 total shots (9 on target) and created 3 big chances. Even a 1-1 draw against Colorado Rapids 2 was an eventful affair, featuring 10 shots from the hosts and 14 from the visitors. Overall, Ventura County consistently generates high-quality scoring opportunities and applies sustained pressure, though they rarely close out a match without a few tense moments.

Tactical Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes II

The San Jose Earthquakes II have a mixed record in their last five matches, with two wins and three losses, and the results are erratic. On one hand, they thrashed Sporting Kansas City II 6-1, but the underlying statistics don’t suggest total dominance: they managed only 6 shots, with just 2 on target. On the other hand, they have suffered two consecutive 0-1 defeats against North Texas SC and Tacoma Defiance. Against North Texas, the Quakes managed 9 shots but only 1 on target, while ceding possession with a 37% to 63% disadvantage.

Over a longer stretch, it’s clear the visitors often react to their opponent’s game plan. In matches against Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2 (a 2-3 loss) and Portland Timbers 2 (a 3-2 win), the games featured high total goals. However, San Jose does not appear to be a team that consistently generates a high volume of shots on target. In this away fixture, their challenge is not only to score but also to prevent Ventura County from building momentum through their attacking phases.

Statistics and Trends

In their head-to-head meeting on May 2, 2026, Ventura County lost at home to San Jose Earthquakes II 1-3. The last four encounters between these sides have produced scorelines of 1-3, 0-4, 1-4, and 1-1. From a tournament trend perspective, San Jose Earthquakes II have played 8 of their last 10 away matches with over 2.5 total goals. However, there is a notable limiting factor for the hosts: opponents of San Jose II have gone under 1.5 individual goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches, meaning Ventura County often struggles to score more than once against this side.

Predicted Lineups

Ventura County: (4-3-3) – Goalkeeper: [Name]; Defenders: [Name], [Name], [Name], [Name]; Midfielders: [Name], [Name], [Name]; Forwards: [Name], [Name], [Name].

San Jose Earthquakes II: (4-2-3-1) – Goalkeeper: [Name]; Defenders: [Name], [Name], [Name], [Name]; Midfielders: [Name], [Name]; Attacking Midfielders: [Name], [Name], [Name]; Forward: [Name].

Referee

The match will be officiated by [Referee Name], who has shown an average of [Number] yellow cards per game this season.

Prediction and Bet

This match is expected to be driven by Ventura County’s initiative. In their recent home games, the team has been prolific with shots (22 against Houston, 18 against LAFC 2), frequently advancing attacks into the box and keeping opponents pinned in their own half. San Jose Earthquakes II, coming off back-to-back 0-1 defeats, look like a side that struggles to score consistently. However, their matches often become high-scoring due to general openness and defensive errors. For Ventura County, the key will be maintaining their finishing quality, while the visitors will have to rely on counter-attacks and set pieces.

The primary selection based on the data is over 2.5 total goals. This bet is supported by San Jose Earthquakes II’s away trend (8 of 10 matches going over 2.5) and Ventura County’s home scoring output.

Prediction: Ventura County to win 3-1.