Vitoria vs Chapecoense: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Vitória currently sit in 13th place with 33 points, holding a four-point cushion above the relegation zone. Chapecoense, meanwhile, remain rooted to the bottom with just 18 points. The hosts' greatest asset is the Estádio Barradão, where they have collected 28 of their 33 points and won all three home matches against teams currently in the relegation zone. However, the first-leg meeting between these sides ended 1-1, suggesting this won't be a straightforward affair.

Tactical Analysis: Vitória

Vitória remain heavily reliant on their home form. After a victory over Grêmio and a draw with Mirassol, Jair Ventura's side fell 1-3 to Cruzeiro. Overall, they have won only one of their last five league matches, but at home against lower-table opponents they are far more convincing. Remo and Internacional were beaten 2-0, while Grêmio went down 1-0. This record shows that Vitória know how to collect the necessary points in matches where they are expected to take the initiative.

That said, their attacking output remains limited. After 28 rounds, the team has scored just 28 goals – the worst record in the entire championship. As a result, even a clear advantage in possession and territory does not always translate into a comfortable scoreline. Rene remains the primary finisher, while work through the flanks and set pieces becomes especially important against a side that has already conceded 53 goals.

Tactical Analysis: Chapecoense

Chapecoense's situation is still precarious, but their recent results no longer look hopeless. Over the last five rounds, they have beaten São Paulo and Corinthians, drawn with Atlético Mineiro, and lost twice. Importantly, they have scored in every one of those matches. After a disastrous first half of the season, Rafael Lacerda has managed to build a more functional structure. Garces, Marcinho, and Eduardo are capable of exploiting the space left behind by Vitória's attacks.

Their most recent away trip to Belo Horizonte was also competitive, as Chapecoense returned with a 1-1 draw. The visitors still allow far too many chances at their own end, but their current form suggests they can put up a fight again and won't collapse after conceding the first goal.

Predicted Lineups

Vitória (4-2-3-1): Arcanjo — Silva, Caca, Cândido, Jamerson — Martinez, Gonçalves — Erik, Mateuzinho, Tarzia — Rene

Injured: Laquintana, Barralhas, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Souza, Mendes, Ramon, Riccheli, Wallas, Pato

Head coach: Jair Ventura

Chapecoense (4-2-3-1): Anderson — Dudu, Faria, Doma, Pacheco — Camilo, Felipe — Marcinho, Augusto, Garces — Tulio

Suspended: Paulo. Injured: Heitor, Alves, Carvalheira, Baleiro, Tubarão, Robert, Rossi, Caetano

Head coach: Rafael Lacerda

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Draw at odds of 3.80

Vitória's home advantage is significant, but the odds on a straight home win are too short. Moreover, their own form does not inspire confidence in a comfortable result. Chapecoense have become noticeably more competitive before the break, picking up points in three of their last five matches, and they already drew with this opponent in the first leg. We therefore back the draw at 3.80. We estimate the probability at 30% (anything above 3.33 is playable).

Goals prediction: Both teams to score – Yes at odds of 1.80

Vitória have scored in their last four league matches, while Chapecoense have found the net in all five of their previous rounds. The visitors' defense remains the worst in the division, and the hosts conceded three times in their last home game. We go for both teams to score at 1.80, with an estimated probability of 60% (anything above 1.67 is playable).